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12/12/2013
1
UN/NGO/Donor/Red CrOSS/Government Coordination Meeting
Jakarta, 20 November 2013
AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYICS
Mulyono R. PrabowoPusat Meteorologi Publik, BMKG
22
INTRODUCTION• Factor Controlling Weather over Indonesia• Prediction of ENSO, IDM & SST
WEATHER FORECAST• Weekly Weather Outlook• Daily Weather Forecast• Daily Potential Flooding Forecast• Early Warning
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MONTHLY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING PREDICTION • November, December, January
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3
4
2013/2014 RAINY SEASON PREDICTION• Prediction of Rainy Season Onset• Prediction of Rainy Season Nature
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3
INTRODUCTION• Factor Controlling Weather over Indonesia• Prediction of ENSO, IDM & SST
1
DM (+)
1
2 El Nino
La Nina3
CONTROLLING FACTORS OF RAINFALL OVER INDONESIA
4
SST
DM (-)
PhenomenaPrediction: Oct 2013‐Mar 2014
Impact to water vapor supply
Impact to rainfall in Indonesia
El Nino/ Lanina Potential El Nino/Lanina Normal(‐0, 12– (‐0, 5 0 C))
Not significant shift of water vapor to Pacific Ocean
Not significant reduce in rainfall in central and eastern Indonesia in Oct 2013 ‐Mar 2014
SST Normal s/d warm(27 ‐29 0 C)
Water vapor over Indonesia sufficient
Potential cloud development
Indian Ocean Dipole Mode
Normal(‐0, 4–0, 4 0 C)
Not significant shift of water vapor supply to East of Africa
Rainfall over western part of Indonesia tends to normal condition
Note:• Reduction of rainfall due to El Nino is weak embalanced by warm SST over Indonesia• Rainfall during rainy season tends to Normal condition• Source: BMKG (Indo)–NOAA (US)–Jamstec (Japan)– BoM (Aust)
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SST Anomaly and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode
Anomali SML Indonesia : +0, 17oC
Nino3, 4 : +0.11oC
Dipole Mode : -0.17oC
WTIO = Western Tropical Indian OceanSETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian OceanDMI = Dipole Mode Index
Sea Surface Temperature
Anomali SML Indonesia : +0, 17oC
Nino3, 4 : +0.11oC
Dipole Mode : -0.17oC
WTIO = Western Tropical Indian OceanSETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian OceanDMI = Dipole Mode Index
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PREDICTION OF SST ANOMALY(NCEP, UPDATED 11 NOVEMBER 2013)
Nov 2013
Dec 2013
Jan 2014
Feb 2014
Mar 2014
Apr 2014
November–December 2013, SST in Indonesia tends to normal-warm/significant water supply.
January - April 2014, SST in Indonesia tends to normal/ not significant water supply.
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Jan 2009M
arM
ayJulySep
Nov
Jan 2010M
arM
eiJulSep
Nov
Jan 2011M
ar M
ayJulSep
Nov
Jan 2012M
arM
ayJulSep
Nov
Jan 2013M
arM
ayJulSep
Nov
JanM
ar
Indek
s N
ino
Current NCEP/NOAA Jamstec BoM BM KG
NORMAL
El Nino strong
El Nino ModerateEl Nino Lemah
La Nina Lemah
La Nina ModerateLa Nina strong
Water supply shifts Indonesia Pacific Ocean
Water supply shifts Indonesia Pacific Ocean
BMKG
PREDIKSI ENSO OLEH 3 INSTITUSI INTERNASIONAL DAN BMKG(UPDATE 11 NOVEMBER 2013)
INSTITUSI Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14
NCEP/NOAA 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Jamstec 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.15 0.15
BoM -0.08 -0.15 -0.18 -0.1 -0.05 0.02
BMKG -0.25 -0.26 -0.23 -0.26 -0.27 -0.36
Prediksi ENSO:1. NCEP/NOAA (USA) Nov13 -Apr14 Normal
2. Jamstec (Japan) Nov13 -Apr14 Normal
3. BoM/POAMA (Australia) Nov13 -Apr14 Normal
4. BMKG (Indonesia) Nov13 -Apr14 Normal
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-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-
Jul-10
Sep-
Nov-
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-
Jul-11
Sep-
Nov-
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-
Jul-12
Sep-
Nov-
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-
Jul-13
Sep-
Nov-
Jan-14
Mar-14
Indek
s IO
D
Past Analysis BoM BM KG
NORMAL
DM (+) strong
DM (-) strong
BMKG
PREDICTION OF INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE MODE(UPDATE 18 NOVEMBER 2013)
Summary:
Prediction of IDM November 2013 – April 2014: Normal/ increase in rainfall in western part of Indonesia is not significant.
Prediksi IndeksIOD
Institusi Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14
BoM -0.21 -0.14 -0.07 0.01 -0.03 0
BMKG -0.35 -0.20 -0.01 0.03 0.01 0.04
Water supply shifts Indonesia East Africa
Water supply shifts Indonesia East Africa
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2013/2014 RAINY SEASON PREDICTION• Prediction of Rainy Season Onset• Prediction of Rainy Season Nature
2
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11
PREDICTION OF 2013/2014 RAINY SEASON ONSET
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PREDICTION OF 2013/2014 RAINY SEASON NATURE
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13
PRAKIRAAN “AWAL” & “SIFAT HUJAN” MUSIM HUJAN 2013/2014 WILAYAH DKI JAKARTA
NO WILAYAH ONSET NATURE
1 Kota Cilegon, Kota Serang, East part of Serang, Central part of Tangerang, Tangerang City, Central and West Jakarta, North part of Jakarta, West part of East Jakarta (ZOM 58)
Oct II ‐ Nop I Normal
2 North Jakarta Utara, East Jakarta Timur/ North part of West Jakarta, Bekasi/west part of North Karawang (ZOM 60)
Oct III ‐ Nop II Above Normal
3 East Jakarta/ South Jakarta, Tangerang City/ South part of Tangerang District, Southeast part of Serang, Lebak, Depok, North and Northeast part of Bogor (ZOM 61)
Sept I ‐ Sept III Normal
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MONTHLY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING PREDICTION • November, December, January
3
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15
PREDICTION OF MONTHLY RAINFALL:NOPEMBER 2013
PREDICTION OF MONTHLY RAINFALL:DECEMBER 2013
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PREDICTION OF MONTHLY RAINFALL:JANUARY 2014
18
PREDICTION OF POTENTIAL FLOODING:NOVEMBER 2013
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19
PREDICTION OF POTENTIAL FLOODING:DECEMBER 2013
20
PREDICTION OF POTENTIAL FLOODING: JANUARY 2014
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WEATHER FORECAST• Weekly Weather Outlook• Daily Weather Forecast• Daily Potential Flooding Forecast• Early Warning
4
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PROSPEK CUACA SATU MINGGU KE DEPANTGL. 18–24 NOVEMBER 2013
Region 18 - 20 November 2013 21 - 24 November 2013
Jakarta
Cloudy and light rain, except East Jakarta and South Jakarta potentially rainy light/ moderate to heavy between noon/ afternoon-evening
Cloudy and light rain, except for the eastern part of Jakarta, West, South and potentially rainy mild/ moderate in the afternoon/ early-evening
BogorCloudy and light rain-rain potentially moderate to heavy, especially during the afternoon and evening
Cloudy and light rain-rain potentially moderate to heavy, especially during the afternoon and evening
Tangerang
Cloudy with rain potential of mild to moderate intensity with heavy potential in South Tangerang region especially in the afternoon/ evening-night
Cloudy with rain potential of mild to moderate intensity with heavy potential in South Tangerang region especially in the afternoon/ evening-night
BekasiCloudy and mild-moderate rain, with the potential for heavy in South Bekasi area especially in the afternoon/ evening-night
Cloudy and mild-moderate rain, with the potential for heavy in South Bekasi area especially in the afternoon/ evening-night
DepokCloudy and light rain/ moderate to heavy, especially in the afternoon/ early-evening
Cloudy and rainy mild/ moderate to heavy, especially in the afternoon/ early-evening
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PRAKIRAAN CUACA WILAYAH JABODETABEKTGL. 20 NOVEMBER 2013
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PRAKIRAAN CUACA WILAYAH JABODETABEKTGL. 21 NOVEMBER 2013
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PREDICTION OF DAILY RAINFALL FOR DKI JAKARTA21 NOVEMBER 2013
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PREDICTION OF DAILY POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR DKI JAKARTA21 NOVEMBER 2013
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The following UPDATE of weather warning for Jabodetabek date 18 November 2013, based on today's weather radar imagery at 13:30: --1). An increase in activity in the formation of rain clouds that could
potentially brings in moderate to heavy rain accompanied by lightning/ thunder at 14:30 pm in the area of Tangerang, Cengkareng, Kosambi, Kamal, Kapuk, South Tangerang, Pondok Aren, Pamulang, Serpong, Bintaro, South Jakarta, Depok, West Jakarta, Pluit, Ancol and surrounding areas.
--2). This condition is expected to last until 17:30 pm and extends to the area of Tangerang, Pamulang, West Jakarta, Central Jakarta, Priok, Bogor and surrounding areas.
--3). In condition of significant weather conditions continue, there will be update before the valid period ends.
Forecaster on Duty, BMKG.
WEATHER WARNING FOR GREATER AREA OF JAKARTA (JABODETABEK) Via SMS
Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysicswww.bmkg.go.id
Jl.Angkasa I No.2, Kemayoran–Jakarta
Wather Info: 021 6546315/18Earthquake Info : 021 6546316
Thank you…..
BMKG
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BMKG
Prediksi sebaran hujan Valid : 20/11/2013 00.00 UTC --- 20/11/2013 12.00 UTC
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12/12/2013
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WHIRLWIND
1. Whirlwind occurs in a certain location at a certain time on a local scale and short time;
2. More whirlwinds occur during the transition season;
3. Time occurrence is more frequent in the afternoon to late evening;
4. Predictability of whirlwind occurrence at a particular time and location is ~1 hour before.
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POTENTIAL HIGH WIND/ WHIRLWIND
NOTE:
Probability Low : <20%
Moderate : >20%
RegionMonth
October 2013
November 2013
December 2013
Jakarta Utara Moderate Moderate Low
Jakarta Pusat Moderate Moderate Low
Jakarta Barat Moderate Moderate Low
Jakarta Timur Moderate Moderate Low
Jakarta Selatan Moderate Low Low
Kep. Seribu Moderate Moderate Low
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Track of Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)
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Satellite imagery on 07 November 20123, at19.00 WIST
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