10

Uranium Participation Corp they do a repeat of Paladin Energy in 2007? 2) Permits are easier to obtain 3) Higher than average grade deposit (for Africa) 4) Recently derisked by paying

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

UraniumParticipationCorp:”HeadsIwin,tailsIdon’tlose(much)”Briefoverview:Marketcap:530MCAD$(400MUSD$),shareprice3.99CAD$1)Aholderofuranium.100%tiedtothepriceofuranium,noleverage2)Neitheraminernoranexplorer=nooperatingrisk3)Hastradedatapremiumsince2017.Couldbeanindicationofhigherprices.

Cameco:”Astrongbalancesheetandthebestminesintheindustrysecureslongtermsurvivalinamarketwherecompetitorsaredroppinglikeflies”Briefoverview:Marketcap:4,800MCAD$(3,700MUSD$),shareprice11.98CAD$U3O8Reserves(Proven+Probable):450millionpoundsTotalproductionannuallywhenallminesareinoperation:33millionpoundsCashrunrate:Likely10+years,butitdependsontheoutcomeofataxdispute1)Strongestbalancesheetinthesectorthatcanwithstandalongdownturn2)Ownsthetwobiggestandhighestgrademinesintheworld3)Sizeoftheirmineralreserves=areliablesupplier=competitiveedge=higherpricesDownside:1)Taxdisputecanpotentiallymakeabigdentonthebalancesheet2)Fatcontractsfromthegoodtimesarecomingtoanend

UEC:”Distressedvalueinvesting”Briefoverview:Marketcap:260MCAD$(200MUSD$),shareprice1.32USD$U3O8Reserves(Measured+Indicated):60millionpoundsTotalpossibleproductiontwomonthsfromnow:4millionpoundsCashrunrate:1year1)Strategy:Buyingcheapassetsfromdistressedsellersinneedofcash2)InSituRecovery=cheapstartupcostsareafractionofconventionalmining2)WilltheUSsubsidizedomesticuraniumproduction?3)Atitaniumdepositmaygetmonetizedthisyear–valuation50-200MUSD4)BackedbyLiKashing,Sprottandotherlong-termholders5)TheCEOisalargeshareholderandhasaddedduring2017ashaveothersDownside:1)Whathappenswhencashrunsout?2)Potentialdilution

GoviExLtd:”CheapassetsinAfrica”Briefoverview:Marketcap:75MCAD$(60MUSD$),shareprice0.215CAD$U3O8Reserves(Measured+Indicated):140millionpoundsTotalpossibleproductionin2020:3millionpounds(5in2023)Cashrunrate:1year1)Cheapassets.WilltheydoarepeatofPaladinEnergyin2007?2)Permitsareeasiertoobtain3)Higherthanaveragegradedeposit(forAfrica)4)Recentlyderiskedbypayingoffabigloanaheadoftime5)BackedbyIvanhoeMines,DenisonMines6)Aninvestmentmustbetreatedlikeanoption.It’sa10x+or0propositionDownside:1)BigstartupspendingofUS$359millionforbuildingamine2)Whathappenswhencashrunsout?

3ExplorersinUraniumHeaven,theAthabascaBasin:DenisonMines,NexgenEnergy,FissionUraniumBriefoverview:Marketcaps:300-1000MCAD$(200-800MUSD$)Production:2023+Cashrunrates:2-3years.Allarebackedbystrong,long-termshareholderbase

PositionSizing:Betbigandsafeorsmallandaggressive?