URBAN SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT WITH A HOLISTIC APPROACH FOR THE NATIONAL DISTRICT IN SANTO DOMINGO, DOMINICAN REPUBLICMartha Liliana CARREÑO1 , Omar D. CARDONA2 , Mario A. SALGADO‐GÁLVEZ1 ,

Cesar A. VELÁSQUEZ1, Alex H. BARBAT11 Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña, Barcelona, Spain 

2 Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales, Ingeniar Ltda., Colombiacontact: liliana@cimne.upc.edu

FPhR1 Expected Annual Economic Loss wPhR1

FPhR2 Expected Annual Deaths wPhR2

FPhR3 Expected Annual Injuries wPhR3

FPhR4 Expected Unemployed wPhR4

FPhR5 Expected Homeless wPhR5

SANTO DOMINGO, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Moncho’s equation

FRUSRiR PhT 1

PHYSICAL RISK

SOCIAL 

FRAGILITY

LACK OF 

RESILIENCE

FSF1 Mortality rate wSF1

FSF2 Population density wSF2

FSF3 Population with fair or poor health wSF3

FSF4 Slums‐squatter neighbourhoods wSF4

FSF5 Social disparity wSF5

FLR1 Hospital beds wLR1

FLR2 Health human resource  wLR2

FLR3 Available public space  wLR3

FLR4  Development level wLR4

FLR5 Operating capacity in case of  emergency

wLR5

PHYSICAL RISK IN

DEX

, RPh

AGGRAVATING COEFFICIENT, F

TOTA

L RISK IN

DEX

, RT

INVOLVED VARIABLES AND EVALUATION PROCESS

5

1

wi

ii RPh RPhPh FR

5

1

5

1

wwj

jji

ii LR LR SF SF FFF

F

RT

UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015‐2030

Geneva, Switzerland, 27 ‐ 29 January 2016

A fully probabilistic risk assessment was conducted using a buildingby building resolution level for the National District, Santo Domingoin the Dominican Republic. A national probabilistic seismic hazardassessment was developed to generate a set of stochastic events.Different building classes were identified and vulnerability functionsassigned to them for the damage and loss quantification. Directphysical losses were quantified and grouped by neighborhoodsbased on official cadastral data. From those results, physicaldamages and casualties were obtained to calculate the physical risk.Risk was also evaluated from a holistic perspective taking intoaccount the expected physical damage but also social fragility andlack of resilience conditions, which can increase the second ordereffects. Together with the physical damage, this evaluationconsiders social and organizational issues as well as institutionalaspects related to the community development. Descriptors areused in order to capture aggravating conditions of the directphysical impact, as well as second order and, sometimes, intangibleimpacts of earthquakes that combined with the physical impact,allows estimating the urban seismic risk index. These results areuseful in the socialization of risk levels in order to communicate it tothe stakeholders besides identifying its causes. The obtained resultscan be used for decision‐making processes through theidentification of zones that may be potentially problematic after theoccurrence of an earthquake. Besides helping to understanddisaster risk, this study also strengthens the disaster risk governanceand management, two of the priorities of the Sendai Framework forDisaster Risk Reduction.

ABSTRACT

From a holistic perspective, risk is a function ofthe potential physical damage and a set ofvulnerability factors i that correspond to thevulnerability conditions of the context underanalysis. The physical vulnerability is obtainedfrom the susceptibility of the exposed elementsto hazards. The vulnerability of the contextdepends on the social fragilities and issuesrelated to lack of resilience of the disasterprone socio‐technical system. To reduce risk, itis necessary to intervene through correctiveand prospective actions the vulnerabilityfactors. Disaster risk management requires aninstitutional structure and public policies andactions to implement the changes needed onthe exposed elements to reduce risk.

Three indexes are calculated:Physical risk index RPh, is based on theconvolution of hazards and the physicalsusceptibility of the exposed elements, and inthis study has been assessed by using theCAPRA platform.Aggravating coefficient, F, is obtained fromother fragility and resilience factors ofvulnerability, based on indicators related to thesocial context and capacities.Urban Seismic Risk Index, USRi, is the total riskRT , obtained from the physical risk aggravatedby an impact factor in each unit of analysis.

Holistic evaluation post‐processing tool

RESULTS

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY

PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT

 

INGENIAR

Replacement value (USD) Average annual loss (USD)(Earthquake)