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U.S. Department of Health and Human ServicesCenters for Disease Control and Prevention
National Center for Health StatisticsDivision of Vital Statistics
U.S. Department of Health and Human ServicesCenters for Disease Control and Prevention
National Center for Health StatisticsDivision of Vital Statistics
Brady E. Hamilton, Ph.D.
Revised Birth and Fertility Revised Birth and Fertility Rates and the 2000 CensusRates and the 2000 Census
Why revise birth and fertility rates?Why revise birth and fertility rates?
To provide more accurate birth and fertility To provide more accurate birth and fertility rates incorporating the latest census data.rates incorporating the latest census data.
Comparison of general fertility rates for Comparison of general fertility rates for Black women based on the 1990 and 2000 Black women based on the 1990 and 2000 censuses: United States, 1991-2001censuses: United States, 1991-2001
Note: Rates are per 1,000 women age 15-44 years.
84.8
79.6
71.0
69.0 68.567.6
70.770.1 69.5
72.3
80.5
85.2
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
1990 based 2000 based
SOURCE: CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System
0
Comparison of general fertility rates for Comparison of general fertility rates for Hispanic women based on the 1990 and Hispanic women based on the 1990 and 2000 censuses: United States, 1991-20012000 censuses: United States, 1991-2001
Note: Rates are per 1,000 women age 15-44 years.
106.9
103.3
98.8
94.293.0
96.0
102.8102.0
107.6
105.0
106.9108.1
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
1990 based 2000 based
SOURCE: CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System
0
Hispanic and race questions on the Hispanic and race questions on the 1990 and 2000 census short form1990 and 2000 census short form
19901990 20002000
• Establishes an order of the race and ethnicity Establishes an order of the race and ethnicity questions. The Hispanic question should questions. The Hispanic question should precede the race question.precede the race question.
• Establishes two (minimum) categories for data Establishes two (minimum) categories for data on ethnicity: “Hispanic or Latino” and “Not on ethnicity: “Hispanic or Latino” and “Not Hispanic or Latino.” The term “Spanish Origin” Hispanic or Latino.” The term “Spanish Origin” may be included.may be included.
1997 Office of Management and Budget 1997 Office of Management and Budget revisions to the standards for race and revisions to the standards for race and ethnicityethnicity
• Establishes a standard of five (minimum) race Establishes a standard of five (minimum) race categories for Federal data collection systems: categories for Federal data collection systems:
American Indian or Alaska Native, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Asian, Black or African American, Black or African American, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, andNative Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, and White. White.
• Mandates the collection of more than one race.Mandates the collection of more than one race.
1997 Office of Management and Budget 1997 Office of Management and Budget revisions to the standards for race and revisions to the standards for race and ethnicity (continued)ethnicity (continued)
IncompatibilityIncompatibility
• Race data from vital records and the 2000 Race data from vital records and the 2000 census (or produced for postcensal and census (or produced for postcensal and intercensal estimates) are not compatible.intercensal estimates) are not compatible.
• The Office of Management and Budget The Office of Management and Budget recognizes the problem of incompatibility recognizes the problem of incompatibility between data systems and allows agencies to between data systems and allows agencies to employ a “bridge period.” employ a “bridge period.”
Bridging methodsBridging methods
• Employ a model that translates multiple race Employ a model that translates multiple race responses for an individual into the one, single responses for an individual into the one, single response the model predicts that the individual response the model predicts that the individual most likely would have reported under the old most likely would have reported under the old standard.standard.
• Help users understand relationship between Help users understand relationship between old and new data series.old and new data series.
• Provide consistent numerators and Provide consistent numerators and denominators for transition period, before all denominators for transition period, before all data are available in the new format.data are available in the new format.
NCHS ApproachNCHS Approach
• NCHS has collaborated with the Census NCHS has collaborated with the Census Bureau to produce a modified race census file Bureau to produce a modified race census file with multiple-race populations bridged to single with multiple-race populations bridged to single races.races.
• NCHS developed a bridging algorithm that was NCHS developed a bridging algorithm that was provided to the Census Bureau to use in provided to the Census Bureau to use in creating population counts and postcensal and creating population counts and postcensal and intercensal estimates with bridged race data.intercensal estimates with bridged race data.
• Goal was to obtain bridged data at the county Goal was to obtain bridged data at the county and State level, as well as national.and State level, as well as national.
NCHS approach (continued)NCHS approach (continued)
• NCHS’s algorithm is based primarily on data NCHS’s algorithm is based primarily on data from recent years of the National Health from recent years of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).Interview Survey (NHIS).
• Since 1982, the NHIS has allowed respondents Since 1982, the NHIS has allowed respondents to select more than one race, and up to two to select more than one race, and up to two races were recorded through 1996 (as many races were recorded through 1996 (as many as five have been recorded since 1997).as five have been recorded since 1997).
• NHIS respondents reporting more than one NHIS respondents reporting more than one race were asked to name their “primary” or race were asked to name their “primary” or “main” race, that is, the “race that best “main” race, that is, the “race that best describes them.” describes them.”
NCHS approach (continued)NCHS approach (continued)
• Percent distribution of main race for each race Percent distribution of main race for each race combination is used to allocate proportionally combination is used to allocate proportionally multiracial persons to a single race at the multiracial persons to a single race at the county level.county level.
• Algorithm involved multinomial logistic Algorithm involved multinomial logistic regression of main race on various covariates regression of main race on various covariates for each multiple-race combination for which for each multiple-race combination for which sufficient NHIS data exist.sufficient NHIS data exist.
Population estimates for April 1, 2000 by county, Population estimates for April 1, 2000 by county, age, bridged-race, Hispanic origin, and sex age, bridged-race, Hispanic origin, and sex
Postcensal population estimates for July 1, 2000 Postcensal population estimates for July 1, 2000 - July 1, 2002, by year, county, age, bridged-- July 1, 2002, by year, county, age, bridged-race, Hispanic origin, and sexrace, Hispanic origin, and sex
Intercensal population estimates for July 1, 1990-Intercensal population estimates for July 1, 1990-July 1, 1999, by year, county, age, bridged-race, July 1, 1999, by year, county, age, bridged-race, Hispanic origin, and sexHispanic origin, and sex
U.S. populations with bridged race U.S. populations with bridged race categories available from NCHScategories available from NCHS
Website addressWebsite address
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/major/dvs/popbridge/popbridge.htmmajor/dvs/popbridge/popbridge.htm
ContactsContacts
Deborah D. IngramDeborah D. Ingram
[email protected]@cdc.gov
Brady E. HamiltonBrady E. Hamilton
[email protected]@cdc.gov
