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US Foreign Policy in the Age of Obama
Renewal, Return, and Continuity
Michael BaunValdosta State University
Key determinants of a nation’s foreign policy:
• basic national interests• personality, beliefs, character of leadership• domestic politics (demands, constraints)• domestic institutions (constraints)• actual international situation (constraints,
opportunities, events)• power and capacities: “hard” – military and
economic; and “soft” – international alliances, institutions, legitimacy
US basic national interests:
• security
• prosperity
• democracy
Obama’s values = key principles of US foreign policy:
• inclusion (vs. division)• multilateralism (vs. unilateralism)• soft power (vs. hard power)• respect (interests of others)• pragmatism (vs. ideology)• professional competence (vs. ideology, personal
loyalty) • strategic thinking
Domestic politics
Mood of Americans:
• weary of war
• skeptical that US action to change things
• want to restore US global image
• priority on fixing domestic economy
Domestic institutional constraints
• separation of powers (Congress)
• electoral cycle – 2010 congressional; 2012 presidential elections
Actual international situation
• inherited problems (Bush legacy)
• unanticipated or anticipated events
Power and capacities
• “hard power” – military capacity
• “soft power” – international alliances,
institutions, and legitimacy
Iraq
• responsible withdrawal; all “combat” forces by August 2010 (35-50,000 troops remaining); all US forces must be out by end of 2011 (US-Iraqi agreement)
• comprehensive regional agreement?
Middle East
• renewed engagement
• negotiations on two-state solution
• more balanced US position (more pressure on Israel)
• consultations with all interested parties –
Hamas?
• regional approach – negotiations with Syria
Iran
• stop nuclear weapons program
• open to direct negotiations; cooperation on Afghanistan?
• bigger “carrots” (WTO membership, investment, normalized diplomatic relations) and “sticks” (tougher sanctions, military option)
• more cooperation with Russia and China
“Afpak”
• biggest foreign policy problem• the “right war” • more troops (17,000 in February) – more later? • bigger European contributions – economic and
civil support • missile and special ops strikes into Pakistan;
negotiate with moderate Taliban? • more limited goals• problem of destabilization of Pakistan
(“nightmare scenario”)• more economic and military aid to Pakistan
China
• most important US bilateral relationship for future
• deal with China’s rise – integrate into global system as “responsible stakeholder”
• broaden focus from financial/economic relations: climate change, energy, regional and global security, global governance
• downplay democracy and human rights
Russia
• hit “reset button” on US-Russia relations
• “grand bargain”?
missile defense, arms control (START), European security, respect for Russian interests in “near abroad” – i.e. NATO enlargement (although “no spheres of influence”)
…in return for Russian cooperation on Iran, Afghanistan, drug trade, etc.
Climate change
• renewed US engagement and leadership
• post-Kyoto agreement in Copenhagen, December 2009
• involve China and India
• domestic energy and environment plans include introduction of “cap and trade” system
Global economic crisis
• domestic stimulus and reform• global coordination to restore international
economic growth – coordinated stimulus?• new regulatory system for global finance?• strengthen and reform international financial
institutions (IMF, IBRD)• maintain global free trade system (although
more protection of labor and environment; tougher stance on completing Doha)
Common US-EU interests?
• Iraq• Middle East (Israel-Palestine)• Iran• Afghanistan-Pakistan (“Afpak”)• China• Russia• climate change• global financial and economic crisis
US-Europe: “essential” partners
Renewal
• of image, promise of America
• of American leadership (in deed and by example)
Return
to traditional principles of US foreign policy:• engagement• multilateralism• diplomacy• institution-building• prudence• reluctance to use force, but willingness to
do so
Continuity
• of basic national interests
• constraints imposed by inherited problems