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US Wind Energy Growth: Issues for 20% by 2030 . Introduction to EE 551 January 12, 2009. James D. McCalley Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering. Outline. Electric industry overview What is a wind plant? Problems with wind; potential solutions Other technology options - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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US Wind Energy Growth: Issues for 20% by 2030
Introduction to EE 551January 12, 2009
James D. McCalleyProfessor of Electrical and
Computer Engineering
Outline1. Electric industry overview2. What is a wind plant?3. Problems with wind; potential solutions4. Other technology options5. National investment planning6. Conclusions
1. Electric Industry Overview: Organizational Structure (N. America)
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• Investor-owned utilities: 239 (MEC, Alliant, Xcel, Exelon, …)• Federally-owned: 10 (TVA, BPA, WAPA, SEPA, APA, SWPA…)
• Public-owned: 2009 (Ames, Cedar Falls, Dairyland, CIPCO…)• Non-utility power producers: 1934 (Alcoa, DuPont,…)• Power marketers: 400 (e.g., Cinergy, Mirant, Illinova, Shell
Energy, PECO-Power Team, Williams Energy,…)• Coordination organizations: 10 (ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, MISO,
SPP, ERCOT, CAISO, AESO, NBSO)• Oversight organizations:
• Regulatory: 52 state, 1 Fed (FERC)• Reliability: 1 National (NERC), 8 regional entities
• Others: Manufacturers, vendors, govt agencies, professional & advocacy organizations…
1. Electric Industry Overview: Existing resource mix; Retail Prices
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1. Electric Industry Overview: Legislative Landscape
• Carbon policy:• Obama admin favors cap ‘n trade• Existing models: SO2, RGGI ($3.5/ton), EU• Coal plnt: $3.50/ton×0.925tons/MWhr=$3.2/MWhr=0.3¢/kWhr
• Subsidies:• Fed PTC, REPI (must have renewals - last done 10/08), 2¢/kWhr• State PTC (IA: 1.5¢/kWhr, small wind, UT, OK), sales/prop tax red
• Renewable portfolio standards (RPS)32 states, differing in % (10-30), timing (latest is 2025), eligible technologies/resources (all include wind)
• Building transmission• Multi-state transmission is very difficult• FERC’s authority - national interest corridors• Alternative: >3 states band (Uppr Mdwst Trns Dvlpmnt Initiative)
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1. Electric Industry Overview: Predicted (US EIA, NEMS); May ’07
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1. Electric Industry Overview: 20% by 2030
• 5/08: www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/• The report identifies what this future looks like
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2. What is a wind plant?Overview
2. What is a wind plant?Tower & Blades
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Manu-facturer
Capacity Hub Height
Rotor Diameter
0.5 MW 50 m 40 m
GE 1.5 MW 61-100 70.5-77 m
Vestas 1.65 MW 70,80 m 82 m
Clipper 2.5 MW 80m 89-100m
GE 2.5 MW 75-100m 100 m
Vestas 3.0 MW 90m 80, 105m
Acciona 3.0 MW 100-120m 100-116m
GE 3.6 MW 104 m
Siemens 3.6 MW 107m
Gamesa 4.5 MW 128 m
REpower 5.0 MW 126 m
Enercon 6.0 MW 135 m 126 m
Weight (Vestas 1.65MW)
Nacelle: 57 s-tonsRotor: 47 s-tonsTower: 138 s-tons
2. What is a wind plant?Electric Generator
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generator
full power
PlantFeeders
actodc
dctoac
generator
partia l power
PlantFeeders
actodc
dctoac
generator
Slip poweras heat loss
PlantFeeders
PF controlcapacitor s
actodc
generator
PlantFeeders
PF controlcapacitor s
Type 1Conventional Induction Generator (fixed speed)
Type 2Wound-rotor Induction
Generator w/variable rotor resistance
Type 3Doubly-Fed Induction
Generator (variable speed)
Type 4Full-converter interface
2. What is a wind plant?Type 3 Doubly Fed Induction Generator
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generator
partia l power
PlantFeeders
actodc
dctoac
• Most common technology today• Provides variable speed via rotor freq control• Converter rating only 1/3 of full power rating• Eliminates wind gust-induced power spikes• More efficient over wide wind speed• Provides voltage control
2. What is a wind plant?Collector Circuit
• Distribution system, often 34.5 kV
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POI or connection to the grid Collector System
Station
Feeders and Laterals (overhead and/or underground)
Individual WTGs
Interconnection Transmission Line
2. What is a wind plant?Offshore
• About 600 GW available 5-50 mile range• About 50 GW available in <30m water• Installed cost ~$2500/MW; uncertain because US cont. shelf deeper than N. Sea
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3. Problems with wind; potential solutionsCost
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3. Problems with wind; potential solutionsCost
•$1050/kW capital cost• 34% capacity factor• 50-50 capital structure• 7% debt cost; 12.2% eqty rtrn• 20-year depreciation life• $25,000 annual O & M per MW20-year levlzd cost=5¢/kWhr
• Existing coal: <2.5¢/kWhr• Existing Nuclear: <3.0¢/kWhr• New gas combined cycle: >6.0¢/kWhr• New gas combustion turbine: >10¢/kWhr
Solution:• Cost of wind reduces as tower height increases
• Tower designs, nacelle weight reduction, innovative constructn• Carbon cost makes wind good (best?) option
3. Problems with wind; potential solutionsDay-ahead forecast uncertainty
• Fossil-generation is planned day-ahead• Fossil costs minimized if real time same as plan• Wind increases day-ahead forecast uncertainty
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Hourly Load Variability and Load-Wind Variability When Wind Penetration is 10%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Load and Load-Wind Hourly Variability (MW)
Freq
ency
Load Hourly Variability Load-Wind Hourly Variability
Solutions:• Pay increased fossil costs from fossil energy displaced by wind• Use fast ramping gen• Distribute wind gen widely• Improve forecasting• Smooth wind plant output
• On-site regulation gen• Storage
3. Problems with wind; potential solutionsDaily, annual wind peak antiphase w/load
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Solutions:• “Spill” wind• Shift loads in time• Storage
• Pumped storage• Pluggable hybrid vehicles• Batteries• H2, NH3 with fuel cell• Compressed air• …others
• Daily wind peaks may occur at night• Annual wind peaks may occur in winter
Midwestern Region
3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Wind is remote from load centers
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3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Wind is remote from load centers
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Build transmission! $60 billion AEP plan
3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Wind is remote from load centers
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Build transmission! $80 billion JCSP plan
3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Wind is remote from load centers
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Transmission cost: a small fraction of total investment & operating costs.…And it can pay for itself:• Assume $80B provides 20,000 MW delivery system over 30 years, 70% capacity factor, for Midwest wind energy to east coast.• This adds $21/MWh.• Cost of Midwest energy is $65/MWh. • Delivered cost of energy would then be $86/MWh.•East coast cost is $110/MWh.
4. Other technology options
• Energy sourcesNatural gas, clean coal, nuclear, biomass, biofuel, solar, deep geothermal, ocean, off-shore wind
• Small generation and demand side control• Other carrier technologies
pipeline (natural gas, liquid fuel) , rail/highway, H2, NH3
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Observation: some energy sources are more economic in certain regions than others….
At 810 Gw load, 1.5% growth, we need 660 Gw over next 40 years. What do we invest in?
4. Other technology optionsGEOTHERMALSOLAR
WindBIOMASS
CLEAN-FOSSIL
NUCLEAR
But how much of each, & how to interconnect?
5. National investment planning
• A new level of energy planning• All energy forms can be used in electric or in transportation• Solution space is temporal (40 yrs), spatial (nation), and …
• Multiobjective: Min cost, max sustainability, max resiliency
• Appropriate tools do not exist today• Approach: Very fast multiobjective optimization
• Network flow modeling• Decomposition methods• High-performance computing
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Conclusions
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• Greenhouse gas has made energy top US priority, and Obama administration is poised to act • Energy and transportation infrastructure are capital intensive and very long-lifed• An intense need for infrastructure planning tools• No silver bullet; no technology should be zeroed• But wind clearly has a large role to play• Must address variability, antiphase peaks, and transmission needs• Iowa well located to play major role in this work