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Bojan Cvijanovic22 April, 2009

The US and China in 21st century: Partners or Competitors?

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CONTENT

Introduction………………………………………4

History of Sino-US relations……………………4

Military spending…………………………………7

Military capabilities………………………………9

Nuclear capabilities……………………………..13

Conclusion……………………………………....16

References………………………………………18

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Introduction: “The US and China in 21st century: Partners or Competitors?”

This will probably be one of the main questions which will define

international relations in 21st century. The US has been major global

power at the end of the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st century.

After 1990’s and the fall of communism in East European countries it’s

emerged as a leader country of the whole world, not only western as it

was in Cold War. Meanwhile, there is emerging China as new great

world power, with it’s fastest growing economy in the past two

decades. One could say that relations between these two powers will

shape international relations in this century.

In this essay I am going to write short about history of Sino-US

relations from 1970’s until now, and the main part I will focus on

military side of their relations and I will examine defense spending,

military capabilities and nuclear capabilities. I am going to show if

China will challenge the US military supremacy in the East Asia region

or it will rather cooperate with the US?

History of Sino-US relations

From the very beginning of the China-US relations in the late

seventies there were lots of issues which were complicating them.

Disastrous results of the reforms such as “Great Leap Forward” and

“Cultural revolution” which failed completely showed Chinese leaders

that they are not able to compete with the West and they should try to

make some connections and take benefit from these relations. Also, in

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the 1970’s their adversary became USSR and they couldn’t rely on

cooperation with them anymore, while they create policy of “anti-Soviet

hegemony”. Turning-points in Sino-US relations were President

Nixon’s visit to Beijing in 1972 and formal recognition of the PRC by

the USA in 1979. China accepted the US leading role in the region and

the US made so-called “double reassurance” with China and Japan,

which assured China from Japan and Japan from China, too.

President Nixon’s visit to the Beijing showed that Americans

accepted reality that real Chinese government is in Beijing and not in

Taipei; even if they kept on helping Taiwan in economic and military

way.

In 1980 China started with its new approach to economic development.

They started with agriculture where they allowed peasants to have

private property and to produce and sell for their own benefit. After

that, they opened some Special Economic Zones (SEZ) which were

made in order to attract foreign investments and these actually worked.

During 1980-ies China proceeded with making conditions for foreign

investments but they didn’t want to change anything in their political

organization in the country. Actually, they showed in Tiananmen

massacre that one of their most important priorities is preservation of

communist government and system in the country. There are some

thoughts among Chinese intellectuals that if China became democratic

it would soon break up and stop existing as a state. This is reason why

China should stay communist autocratic country, according to them.

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After Tiananmen massacre Western countries led by USA broke their

relations with China for few years and China economy grows suffers.

The shadow of the Tiananmen massacre was covering Sino-US

relations in the first half of 1990’s. Melting started again in 1993, when

Chinese President Jiang Zemin visited Seattle and talked with

President Clinton for the first time.

Despite the fact that Clinton’s administration tried to improve relations

with China in the 1990’s they were faced with some serious challenges

such as 1995-1996 Chinese military manoeuvres near Taiwan cost.

The US responded with sending two aircraft carriers ship groups near

Taiwan cost to show Chinese leaders that they are serious about

protecting Taiwan from Chinese attack. At the end Chinese withdrew

and gave up idea of solving Taiwan issue by military way, at least for a

while. Regardless the fact that China reached agreement with the US

about joining WTO which shows improvement in Sino-US relations and

that the US are temporarily more focused on fight against terrorism,

China will undoubtedly stay one of the main priorities for the US. In the

next three chapters I will write something about China’s military

spending, military capabilities and nuclear capabilities and its influence

on relations with the USA.

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Military spending

China

Economic growth in the last two decades has enabled China to

start with modernisation of their armed forces. Unsolved issues such

as Taiwan and Tibet and examples of solving similar problems by the

US in Serbian province Kosovo and Metohija where they avoid UNSC

as well as bombing Chinese embassy in Belgrade have been sparking

China’s fear of repeating scenario like that. These are some of the

reasons why China expanded its military spending.

“Currently, China spends 5.7 percent of GDP on military

programs.”1 Military spending have arisen from $7.59 billion in 1995 to

$20 billion in 2002. “Over the past eight years, China’s military budget

has grown an average of 14.2 percent. If the Chinese maintain a 14.2

percent growth rate in military spending they will be on par with the

Russians in terms of military expenditures by 2020. This will put them

as the second highest military spender in the world behind the US.

One other point to take into consideration is that normally Chinese

military spending is two to four times as reported. This would mean

that actual Chinese spending would be around $400–$800 billion by

the year 2020, which would put them at a similar level to the United

States.”2 (2)

1 Defense & Security Analysis Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 389–404, December 2003 Is China the Next

Superpower? Suraj Sengupta

2 Defense & Security Analysis Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 389–404, December 2003 Is China the Next

Superpower? Suraj Sengupta

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One can say that this shows that People Liberation Army (PLA)

has lots of money, and will have in future, to spend on modern weapon

systems and will be able to strongly support China’s foreign policy. But,

despite this percent growth rate in military spending “China’s military

budget is about one-fifth that of the United States and smaller and

much less sophisticated than Japan’s”3(3). There are some thoughts

among American Defense Department which calls the PLA “one of the

world’s largest military museums.”4(4)

This seems as underestimating PLA, and it is hard to be

completely true but the fact is that the PLA uses equipment and

armament from the 1970’s and 1980’s.

In order to make modern army, compatible with other 21st

century armies in the world China will have to reduce number of its

troops. In this case they will be able to spend less money on salaries

and more on modern weapons and training and in the same time it will

have more satisfied personnel and better equipped as well.

The USA

“The United States is unique today among major states in the

degree of its reliance on military spending, and its determination to

stand astride the world, militarily as well as economically.”5

The USA is on the first place in the world regarding military

spending. Its military spending is 50% of world defense expenditures.

3 China and the USA: Who threatens whom? Robert A. Pastor4 http://www.bjreview.com/nation/txt/2009-04/05/content_189610.htm- Putting Perspective on China's Defense Spending LU HANXIN5 (http://www.monthlyreview.org/081001foster-holleman-mcchesney.php- The U.S. Imperial Triangle and Military Spending-John Bellamy Foster, Hannah Holleman, and Robert W. McChesney

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“For FY 2008, the Bush administration has requested $647.3 billion to

cover the costs of national defense and war. This includes the Defense

Department budget ($483 billion), some smaller defense-related

accounts ($22.6 billion), and the projected FY 2008 cost of Iraq,

Afghanistan, and counter-terror operations ($141.7 billion).

The $647.3 billion request represents a 75 percent real increase over

the post-Cold War low-point in national defense spending, which

occurred in 1996. Today's expenditures are higher in inflation-adjusted

terms than peak spending during the Vietnam and Korean wars -- as

well as higher than during the Reagan buildup.”6

From this we can predict that the US military spending in the

future will rise, and it will take long to China to become equal with the

US in term of defense budget, if ever.

Military capabilities

China

In this moment China doesn’t seem able to endanger the US

supremacy in East Asia and especially not in the world. Despite the

fact that China has the biggest army in the world, almost double as the

US, this army suffers lots of weaknesses.

First of all, there is problem with old weapon systems and

equipment. China has about 10 000 tanks, but majority of them are

Type-59, which were started to be produced in 1950’s. They have

6 http://www.comw.org/pda/0703bm41.html America Speaks Out: Is the United States spending too

much on defense? by Carl Conetta

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number of Type-90-II tanks, which are much more sophisticated and

equipped with some additional things such as stabilized rangefinder

sight, passive thermal imaging, and laser rangefinder and so on.

However, there is still lack of these tanks in the units.

Secondly, there are aircrafts which are mainly on the level of

1970’s and can not compete with modern aircraft in the US Armed

Forces. “As of 2002, only about 100 were considered modern by

Western standards. Despite decades of work, the only original combat

aircraft to be designed and produced in China are the J-8 and JH-7,

both of which took so long to develop that by the time they entered

service, they were already obsolete by Western standards. Due to the

lack of success in producing military aircraft, China has relied on

Russia to modernize its existing equipment. The Air Force hopes to

acquire a more versatile, advanced air force with longer-range

inceptors and long-range transport and mid-air refueling capabilities.”7

China has been developing its own aircraft J-10, which should

be comparable with American F-16, and trying to rely on their

production. Anyway, they didn’t have success in the past with

developing aircraft, so no one can predict will they success this time.

Thirdly, China doesn’t have aircraft carrier which shows that

they have very limited capabilities for projecting force far away from

their coast. There are some rumors that China will buy one aircraft

carrier from Ukraine but we will see what will happen. In this moment

China has number of submarines produced from 1960 to 1980

(Chinese versions of Soviet “Romeo” diesel-electric submarines), but 7 Why East Asian War is Unlikely- Richard A. Bitzinger and Barry Desker

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those are “outclassed by nearly every ASW system deployed by

China's neighbors.”8 There are also submarines Ming and Song class

but they are not much better than Romeo class submarines. Regarding

nuclear submarines China tried to develop and build it and first of them

entered service in 1974, but until 1990 there was built only five of

them. Now they are trying to develop new nuclear submarine with

assistance of Russian builders which will be similar to Russian Victor

III class.

Regarding surface combat ships situation is better for the PLAN

because China more modern vessels in their fleet. They have two

Russians Sovremeny class destroyers, two Chinese built “Luhai” class

destroyers, 18 other destroyers and 37 frigates.

Next thing is doctrine of the PLA. Despite the fact that they are

in the process of the modernization, the PLA has old doctrine which

hardly can consider as good for the 21st century warfare. The PLA

planners have been developing new doctrine but, “according to Dennis

Blasko, the current concept of limited, informationalised war is, in many

ways, Peoples War adapted to twenty-first-century requirements and

capabilities”9

China has purchased worth military equipment from Russia and

Israel. “Between 1998 and 2005 Beijing signed new arms import

agreements worth some $16.7bn, according to the US Congressional

8 China's Military Capabilities Frank W Moore, IDDS Research Analyst, June 20009 Why is East Asian War is Unlikely, Richard A. Bitzinger and Barry Desker

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Research Service; in 2005 alone, it purchased $2.8bn worth of foreign

weapon systems.”10

However, “modernization does not seem to be accelerating. Indeed,

over the past few years the pace of PLA arms acquisitions has

declined in some areas. The Chinese have not laid down a new

destroyer in more than three years. In 2006 and 2007, Chinese

overseas arms purchases were worth, respectively, $100 million and

$150 million, a far cry from the $2.8 billion worth of foreign weapons

systems it bought in 2005. ”11 Furthermore, according to US Defense

Department’s annual report on Chinese military power, “while the PLA

has made considerable progress in incorporating modern weapon

systems into its forces, as of 2007, 70% of its surface combatants,

60% of its submarine force and 80% of its fighter jets were still

considered old.” 12

The USA

Regarding the US Armed Forces it is obvious that it is the most

powerful military power in the world. They have the biggest military

budget which allows them to develop and have some of the best

weapons.

The US has 12 aircraft carriers which allow them to project force

on any point in the world. They have 50 destroyers and 92 frigates

available. The fact is that they have the biggest capabilities in air

transport in the world and they can reach any point in the world.

10 http://www.monthlyreview.org/081001foster-holleman-mcchesney.php- The U.S. Imperial Triangle and Military Spending-John Bellamy Foster, Hannah Holleman, and Robert W. McChesney

11 Why is East Asian War is Unlikely, Richard A. Bitzinger and Barry Desker12 Why is East Asian War is Unlikely, Richard A. Bitzinger and Barry Desker

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Also, they have already incorporated all those modern weapons

and equipment into their doctrine and tactics. Even on the lowest level,

in squads and platoons, they are using modern technologies. For

example, soldiers on the field gets satellites picture of the terrain in real

time which allow them to see where enemy is and to avoid or destroy

him.

Nuclear capabilities

China

“China is a recognized nuclear weapon state under the Non-

Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and possesses enough nuclear material for

hundreds of nuclear weapons. China has approximately 400 nuclear

weapons and various delivery platforms, mostly short- and medium-

range missiles. ”13

“China has not officially released details about the size or

composition of its nuclear arsenal, making estimates difficult to

develop. Much of the unclassified information compiled on China’s

forces is from unverified media reports and occasional statements by

intelligence or government officials. From these, it is possible to

estimate that China fields approximately 152 warheads on land- and

sea-launched missiles, 130 bomber weapons, and 120 weapons on

artillery, short-range missiles, and other weapons. Beijing also

maintains a fairly extensive nuclear weapons production and research

13 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17609&prog=zgp&proj=znpp- China's Nuclear Capabilities Caterina Dutto PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 18, 2005

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complex. China has conducted 45 nuclear weapons tests, the first of

which took place on October 16, 1964, and the last on July 29, 1996.”14

With number of 400 nuclear warheads in its arsenal, China is on

the third place in the world, behind the USA and Russia. They also

have some missiles for carrying nuclear warheads, but they are mainly

old, liquid fuel missiles. China has been developing new missiles with

solid fuel, which are safer and easier for handling and maintenance.

“China is in the process of modernizing its strategic missile

forces although historically its progress has been slow and has lagged

well behind foreign estimates. Although China deploys several types of

ballistic missiles, only the DF-5 (13,000- kilometer range) is an

intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by Western standards and is

capable of reaching the continental United States. Currently, China

deploys approximately 20 DF-5 ICBMs and 12 DF-4 intermediate-

range missiles (5,500-kilometer range). China is developing and may

have deployed the DF-31, a mobile, three-stage solid-fueled ICBM with

an estimated range of 8,000 kilometers. Plans to develop another land-

based missile, the DF-41, a solid-fueled ICBM with a range of 12,000

kilometers, appear to have been canceled in favor of an extended-

range version of the DF-31, the DF-31A. “15

“China has only one ballistic missile submarine, however, which

has never left coastal waters and is not operational. There are some

reports that a new missile submarine may be ready to enter service in

the next few years. China’s bomber force consists mainly of aging H-6 14 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17609&prog=zgp&proj=znpp- China's Nuclear Capabilities Caterina Dutto PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 18, 200515 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17609&prog=zgp&proj=znpp- China's Nuclear Capabilities Caterina Dutto PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 18, 2005

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aircraft based on the Soviet Tu-16 Badger bomber, with a range of

3,100 kilometers. China purchased 24 Su-30 fighter aircraft and SA-20

surface- to-air missile systems from Russia in 2004, but these are not

thought to have been modified for a nuclear role.”16

The USA

With 5200 nuclear warheads the USA is on the second place

regarding nuclear weapons in the world, behind Russia. Its nuclear

arsenal consists of ICBMs (land, sea and air-based strategic weapons)

and Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons (Tomahawk and gravity bombs).

Firstly, there is Peacekeeper (MX) ICBM which is Land-based

Strategic Weapon. It can carry 10 warheads and is very accurate,

range is 9 600 km and it has so called “cold launch” which means that

missile has been “ejected from the silo by a cold gas generator which

lofts the missile tens of meters into the air before the main engines

ignite. This process, which the Soviets used extensively, reduces

damage to the silo, allowing for swift refurbishment, and if, possible

reloading.”17

Secondly, the USA has nuclear submarines which carries

ICBMs and can hide in any point in the see, even under North Pole Ice

Cap. These are submarines Ohio-class (Trident) SSBN with Trident I

C-4 SLBM and Trident II D-5 SLBM nuclear ballistic missiles. Trident I

carry 8 x W76 warheads, 100 KT each, while Trident II carries 8 x W76

or 5 x W76 /-88 warheads.18

16 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17609&prog=zgp&proj=znpp- China's Nuclear Capabilities Caterina Dutto PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 18, 200517 http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/usnukes.html#mmiii-nuclear weapon data base: the US Arsenal18 See: http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/usnukes.html#ohio

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This is only part of nuclear arsenal of the USA, but it can easily be

seen that Americans are far cry from Chinese in this area.

Conclusion

The truth is that China is third nuclear power in the world. Also,

the fact is that China has the largest Army in the world and that it is

among major countries regarding military expenditures.

However, is China able to compete to the USA today in military

way? Despite all efforts of the Chinese government to modernize PLA,

that will hardly be done in the next decades. Chinese Army is far from

the US AF regarding all major capabilities.

Will China be able to compete to the USA in near future? China will

probably not be equal with the USA at least in the first half of 21 st

century. One high ranking military official said to his American

colleague: “You (the USA) are much too strong for us (China) to

consider you a threat. We cannot contest your power.”19

Nobody can say what will happen in the future and how exactly

military relations between China and the USA will be. In my opinion,

they have to find some way of cooperation because that is in the best

interest of both countries despite all issues which make harder this

cooperation (Taiwan, human rights, etc.). For China, cooperation with

the US is way to ensure its economic development and not go in some

kind of new Cold War. For the USA, it is way to keep their leading role

in the world and avoid making coalitions between China and countries

such as India and Russia which would oppose American interests 19 China and the USA: Who threatens whom? Robert A. Pastor

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worldwide. However, it will be very hard, demanding process for both

sides. Regarding military cooperation, it is heavily dependent on others

fields of cooperation. I deeply believe that military cooperation will be

achieved very short time after political agreement. We can hope, for

benefit if all mankind, that they will have success in this.

Word count: 3.285 words

References:Defense & Security Analysis Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 389–404, December 2003 Is China the Next Superpower? Suraj Sengupta

China and the USA: Who threatens whom? Robert A. Pastor

http://www.bjreview.com/nation/txt/2009-04/05/content_189610.htm- Putting Perspective on China's Defense Spending LU HANXIN

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(http://www.monthlyreview.org/081001foster-holleman-mcchesney.php- The U.S. Imperial Triangle and Military Spending-John Bellamy Foster, Hannah Holleman, and Robert W. McChesney

http://www.comw.org/pda/0703bm41.html America Speaks Out: Is the United States spending too much on defense? by Carl Conetta

Why East Asian War is Unlikely- Richard A. Bitzinger and Barry Desker

China's Military Capabilities Frank W Moore, IDDS Research Analyst, June 2000

13http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17609&prog=zgp&proj=znpp- China's Nuclear Capabilities Caterina Dutto PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 18, 2005

http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/usnukes.html#mmiii-nuclear weapon data base: the US Arsenal

http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/usnukes.html#ohio

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