Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
VIENNA MUSIC BUSINESS RESEARCH DAYS
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
VIENNA MUSIC BUSINESS RESEARCH DAYS
ERIC GARLANDBIGCHAMPAGNE
FROM NAPSTER TO NOW:FILE SHARING TRENDS
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
BIGCHAMPAGNE DATA & ANALYSIS
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
ANNUAL RECORDED MUSIC REVENUE
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
£0
£2.00
£4.00
£6.00
£8.00
7.166.81
6.31
4.87
4.15
3.32
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
Average Unit Price for UK Music
BUYING MORE, SPENDING LESS
*Q1, Q2
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
• CD sales in free fall
• Total song sales are flattening, year over year
• Top songs sell a few hundred thousand weekly • Less than 10% of free, legal streams
• YouTube streams more hit music than MySpace
• Traditional broadcast (radio and television) • Remains the driver of online impressions
BY THE NUMBERS
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
BY THE NUMBERS
What happened here?
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
UK: ‘UP IS THE NEW UP’
Source: PRS For Music
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
95,701
2,050
2009AlbumsSellingUnder5,000Units
2009AlbumsSellingOver5,000Units
Source:NielsenSoundscan
USA: ONLY 2% OF ALBUMS SOLD 5K UNITS
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
NumberofAlbumswhichSoldMoreThanOneMillionUnitsSource:NielsenSoundscan
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2006 2007 2008 2009
USA: 12 NEW PLATINUM ALBUMS LAST YEAR
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
DIGITAL TRACKS AND DIGITAL ALBUMSYear 2009 iTunes Unit Sales
Source: Reuters, 6 January 2010
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
FREE AND LEGAL BEATS PAID
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
BUT NOTHING BEATS P2P
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
2009 REVENUESMost Revenue Generated in 2009…
...from Broadcast Streams: Beyonce $5,000 ...from On Demand Streams: Michael Jackson $10,000
… from Tethered Sub Downloads: Nickelback, T. Swift, MJ $500,000 … from Digital Album Download Sales: Michael Jackson $800,000
… from Digital Single Download Sales: Lady Gaga, at least * $3,300,000
*LadyGagahad33trackssellingmorethan$100,000in2009
Source:Billboard
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
TRADITIONAL P2P FILE SHARING (WWIDE)Average Simultaneous Global P2P Users
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
7,000,000
7,500,000
8,000,000
8,500,000
9,000,000
9,500,000
10,000,000
10,500,000
Aug
ust,
2003
Sept
embe
r, 20
03
Oct
ober
, 200
3
Nov
embe
r, 20
03
Dec
embe
r, 20
03
Janu
ary,
200
4
Febr
uary
, 200
4
Mar
ch, 2
004
Apr
il, 2
004
May
, 200
4
June
, 200
4
July
, 200
4
Aug
ust,
2004
Sept
embe
r, 20
04
Oct
ober
, 200
4
Nov
embe
r, 20
04
Dec
embe
r, 20
04
Janu
ary,
200
5
Febr
uary
, 200
5
Mar
ch, 2
005
Apr
il, 2
005
May
, 200
5
June
, 200
5
July
, 200
5
Aug
ust,
2005
Sept
embe
r, 20
05
Oct
ober
, 200
5
Nov
embe
r, 20
05
Dec
embe
r, 20
05
Janu
ary,
200
6
Febr
uary
, 200
6
Mar
ch, 2
006
Apr
il, 2
006
May
, 200
6
June
, 200
6
July
- 20
06
Aug
ust,
2006
Sept
embe
r, 20
06
Oct
ober
, 200
6
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
P2P FILE SHARING TOTAL USERS (WWIDE)
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
P2P FILE SHARING TOTAL USERS (USA)
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
POLLSTERS: FILE SHARING IS UP
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
LIL WAYNE 16.9
GUCCI MANE 9.4
THE BEATLES 8.4
EMINEM 7.7
CHARLIE PARKER 7.6
MICHAEL JACKSON 7.4
GLEE CAST 7.4--------------------------
BRITNEY SPEARS 4.7
GREEN DAY 4.0
OWL CITY 3.6LADY ANTEBELLUM 3.0
PIRATES DON’T WANT ALBUMSON AVERAGE, 2.02 SONGS
Some ‘over-achievers’:
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
!"
#!!$!!!"
%!!$!!!"
&!!$!!!"
'!!$!!!"
(!!$!!!"
)!!$!!!"
*!!$!!!"
+!!$!!!"
,!!$!!!"
#$!!!$!!!"
#$#!!$!!!"
#$%!!$!!!"
#$&!!$!!!"
#$'!!$!!!"
#+-./0-!,"
#,-./0-!,"
%!-./0-!,"
%#-./0-!,"
%%-./0-!,"
%&-./0-!,"
%'-./0-!,"
%(-./0-!,"
%)-./0-!,"
%*-./0-!,"
%+-./0-!,"
!#-1
23-!,"
!%-1
23-!,"
!&-1
23-!,"
!'-1
23-!,"
!(-1
23-!,"
!)-1
23-!,"
!*-1
23-!,"
!+-1
23-!,"
!,-1
23-!,"
#!-1
23-!,"
##-1
23-!,"
#%-1
23-!,"
#&-1
23-!,"
#'-1
23-!,"
#(-1
23-!,"
#)-1
23-!,"
#*-1
23-!,"
#+-1
23-!,"
#,-1
23-!,"
%!-1
23-!,"
%#-1
23-!,"
%%-1
23-!,"
%&-1
23-!,"
%'-1
23-!,"
%(-1
23-!,"
%)-1
23-!,"
%*-1
23-!,"
%+-1
23-!,"
%,-1
23-!,"
&!-1
23-!,"
!"#$#!"#$%&'#(&#)*'#+",%-"&#
%&'&()*+,#-./0122,3/#4(5&'#6173(1)89#
THESE ARE NOT SONGS
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
!"
#!!$!!!"
%!!$!!!"
&!!$!!!"
'!!$!!!"
(!!$!!!"
)!!$!!!"
*!!$!!!"
+!!$!!!"
,!!$!!!"
#$!!!$!!!"
#$#!!$!!!"
#$%!!$!!!"
#$&!!$!!!"
#$'!!$!!!"
#+-./0-!,"
#,-./0-!,"
%!-./0-!,"
%#-./0-!,"
%%-./0-!,"
%&-./0-!,"
%'-./0-!,"
%(-./0-!,"
%)-./0-!,"
%*-./0-!,"
%+-./0-!,"
!#-1
23-!,"
!%-1
23-!,"
!&-1
23-!,"
!'-1
23-!,"
!(-1
23-!,"
!)-1
23-!,"
!*-1
23-!,"
!+-1
23-!,"
!,-1
23-!,"
#!-1
23-!,"
##-1
23-!,"
#%-1
23-!,"
#&-1
23-!,"
#'-1
23-!,"
#(-1
23-!,"
#)-1
23-!,"
#*-1
23-!,"
#+-1
23-!,"
#,-1
23-!,"
%!-1
23-!,"
%#-1
23-!,"
%%-1
23-!,"
%&-1
23-!,"
%'-1
23-!,"
%(-1
23-!,"
%)-1
23-!,"
%*-1
23-!,"
%+-1
23-!,"
%,-1
23-!,"
&!-1
23-!,"
!"#$#!"#$%&'#(&#)*'#+",%-"&#
%&'&()*+,#-./0122,3/#4(5&'#6173(1)89#
U2’s No Line On The HorizonBITTORRENT ALBUM DOWNLOADS
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
!"
#!!$!!!"
%!!$!!!"
&!!$!!!"
'!!$!!!"
(!!$!!!"
)!!$!!!"
*!!$!!!"
+!!$!!!"
,!!$!!!"
#$!!!$!!!"
#$#!!$!!!"
#$%!!$!!!"
#$&!!$!!!"
#$'!!$!!!"
#+-./0-!,"
#,-./0-!,"
%!-./0-!,"
%#-./0-!,"
%%-./0-!,"
%&-./0-!,"
%'-./0-!,"
%(-./0-!,"
%)-./0-!,"
%*-./0-!,"
%+-./0-!,"
!#-1
23-!,"
!%-1
23-!,"
!&-1
23-!,"
!'-1
23-!,"
!(-1
23-!,"
!)-1
23-!,"
!*-1
23-!,"
!+-1
23-!,"
!,-1
23-!,"
#!-1
23-!,"
##-1
23-!,"
#%-1
23-!,"
#&-1
23-!,"
#'-1
23-!,"
#(-1
23-!,"
#)-1
23-!,"
#*-1
23-!,"
#+-1
23-!,"
#,-1
23-!,"
%!-1
23-!,"
%#-1
23-!,"
%%-1
23-!,"
%&-1
23-!,"
%'-1
23-!,"
%(-1
23-!,"
%)-1
23-!,"
%*-1
23-!,"
%+-1
23-!,"
%,-1
23-!,"
&!-1
23-!,"
!"#$#!"#$%&'#(&#)*'#+",%-"&#
%&'&()*+,#-./0122,3/#4(5&'#6173(1)89#
U2’s No Line On The HorizonBITTORRENT ALBUM DOWNLOADS
Nearly half a million pre-release.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
MUSIC BIZ ‘ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE’
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
MUSIC BIZ ‘ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE’
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
INFRINGING AFTER LIMEWIREDECENTRALIZED • More resilient • Harder to policeMORE EFFICIENT/FASTER • Content distribution (pro/am) • File transfersBETTER-INDEXED • Improved search (Google) • More social (Twitter, Facebook)[however]
MUSIC is an increasingly smaller sliceWednesday, June 16, 2010
‘ONE-CLICK’ HOSTING ON THE RISE
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
TWITTER TELLS YOU FIRST
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
‘I GAVE AWAY FREE MUSIC FOR YEARS!’
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
“I live by two words. ‘F*#% you, pay me!’”
Kanye West Two Words
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
GOOGLE FINDS IT FOR YOU
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
HIGHER QUALITY THAN iTUNES
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
ONE-CLICK CONVENIENCE
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
FASTER THAN iTUNES
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
(Hollywood has no idea what’s coming their way.)Wednesday, June 16, 2010
OnMarch12,2008,HululauncheditsservicetothepublicwhichincludedfullaccesstoArrestedDevelopment
AvailableonHulu
COMPETE WITH FILE SHARING...
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
FREE, LEGALSTREAMING STOPPED HERE.
...OR DON’T COMPETE WITH FILE SHARING
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
FOR HOLLYWOOD, THE YEAR IS 1999
‘TRANSFORMER 2’450K BITTORRENTDOWNLOADS IN ONE DAY
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
DIGITAL TRACKS AND DIGITAL ALBUMSYear 2009 iTunes Unit Sales
Source: Reuters, 6 January 2010
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
STILL THE BUNDLE RULESBY SALES AND REVENUE
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
HALF FULL? HALF EMPTY?
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
THE MUSIC ECOSYSTEM: MORE DEMAND, MORE REVENUE STREAMS
“The music ecosystem is healthier than people think -- both in terms of demand fundamentals and economics. Consumer demand for music has more than doubled since 2003.”
“Value destruction came from unbundling rather than theft. Re-bundling through subscription services (“The Cloud”) holds out the promise of re-linking economics to growing music consumption.”
Laura Martin, CPA, Analyst, Needham & Co
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
