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20/02/2012
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Macro‐ProspectionThinking about the future using
macro‐& big history
Joseph VorosSwinburne University of Technology
Melbourne, Australia
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• The starting point of Futures Studies is to k th t f ti th task the sorts of questions that may
stimulate and generate new and deeper insights into the situation being studied (and maybe more questions…)
• Today I’ll talk about some types ofToday I ll talk about some types of questions we can ask about the global future …
Inputs
Analysis F
The generic foresight process framework
O t t
Analysis
Interpretation
Prospection
Foresight
The activity of purposefully thinking about the future to create forward views & ideas about, or ‘images’ of, the future
Strategy / Policy
OutputsCopyright © 2000 Joseph Voros
Strategy / PolicyDevelopment & Planning
Individual, organisation, society, planet…
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Inputs
Analysis F
Sources
Categories
The generic foresight process framework
O t t
Analysis
Interpretation
Prospection
Foresight
Categories
Frameworks
‘Images’
O i
Strategy / Policy
OutputsCopyright © 2000 Joseph Voros
Options
Strategy / PolicyDevelopment & Planning
Individual, organisation, society, planet…
Inputs
Analysis F
The generic foresight process framework
O t t
Analysis
Interpretation
Prospection
Foresight
Strategy / Policy
OutputsCopyright © 2000 Joseph Voros
Strategy / PolicyDevelopment & Planning
Individual, organisation, society, planet…
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Inputs
Analysis F Emerging Issues
Delphi, Environmental ScanningDesk-based & Internet research
Example Methods
O t t
Analysis
Interpretation
Prospection
Foresight
Reports, Presentations
Scenarios, VisioningNormative methods, Backcasts
Systems ThinkingLayered Analysis
Trends, Cross-impact
Outputs Reports, PresentationsWorkshops, Multimedia
Copyright © 2000 Joseph Voros
Inputs
FAnalysis
Sources
Categories
O t t
Prospection
Foresight
Analysis Categories
Frameworks
‘Images’
O i
Interpretation
OutputsCopyright © 2000 Joseph Voros
Options
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Types of alternative futures
Time PossibleFuture Knowledge
Preposterous!“impossible!”“won’t ever happen!”
PlausibleCurrent Knowledge“could happen”
Probable
Now
The ‘Projected’ FutureThe ‘default’ extrapolated‘business as usual’ future
Future Knowledge“might happen”
Potential
Current Trends“likely to happen”
PreferableValue Judgements“want to happen”“should happen”
Potential
Inputs
FAnalysis
Sources
Categories
O t t
Interpretation
Prospection
Foresight
Analysis Categories
Frameworks
‘Images’
O iOutputsCopyright © 2000 Joseph Voros
Options
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Situating social‐historical frameworks
event discrete events & occurrences
trend patterns, trends, ‘pop futurism’
system system drivers social causes policy analysissystem system drivers, social causes, policy analysis
worldview
mental models, discourses, perspectives
myths, metaphors, symbols, images
intelligences, modes, structures of consciousness
historicalsocial change & related forces & factors
historicalhistorical & macro-historical forces & factors
Big History
Cosmic Evolution
Macro‐Prospection
Let us here consider 3 classes of perspective based on Big History to seekperspective based on Big History to seek ideas & insights about the future
• Big History via a matter-energy-complexity perspective (e.g., Chaisson, Spier, Christian, etc)
• Big History via a material complexity + ‘i t i it ’ ti‘interiority’ perspective (e.g., Jantsch, Wilber, etc)
• Big History considered as a single case(‘idiographic’ perspective)
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1. Big History –matter‐energy
• eg Christian writes of 8 ‘thresholds’ of ( t i l ti ) l it(material-energetic) complexity
• Some types of futures analysis which can be used on this perspective are:– Extrapolative evolution– Disjunctive revolutionDisjunctive revolution– Reiterative analogy
Evolution
• Less-available energy for human useKnown sources less energy dense than oil– Known sources less energy-dense than oil
– Will this imply a reduction in social complexity and an end to industrial civilisation as we know it?
– Will “threshold 9” be a smooth (or not?) transition to a less energy-intensive civilisation based on more diffuse energy sources?
E T iti (S il)• Energy Transitions (Smil)• Long Descent, Eco-technic Future (Greer)• Crisis of Civilisation (Ahmed)• Effects on agricultural production, population
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Disjunction
• Current high-density energy sources rapidlydecline in availability or useabilitydecline in availability or useability– Renewable energy sources not enough to power
industrial civilisation as we have known it– High scarcity and likely disruptions/conflicts– Peak Oil & ‘Peak everything’ (various) – Collapse? (e.g. Diamond, Tainter)
• A new source with greater energy-density?A new source with greater energy density?– Fusion? Thorium? Other ‘miraculous’ source?– Ability to usefully concentrate dispersed energy
sources such as solar, wind, tidal, …
Reiterative analogy
• Food: foraging (long time) farming (recent)• Energy: foraging farming (just starting)• Energy: foraging farming (just starting)
• What insights might come from analogy with the agricultural transition applied to energy?
• Is there another energy source analogous to the discovery of fossil fuel industrialised agriculture?– eg Geothermal ~ ‘fossilised’ from Earth formationeg Geothermal fossilised from Earth formation– Coal & oil geographic advantages – Could access to geothermal energy confer similar
advantages to a new group of states; an OGAC?
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2. Complexity + Consciousness
• Erich Jantsch wrote of ‘information’ and consciousness as well as material-energeticconsciousness as well as material-energetic complexity
• Others also write of mind and spirituality as well as matter-energy
• Is there a way to combine these views in a single unifying model?single unifying model?– eg Wilber building upon Jantsch– ‘Interior’ consciousness correlates of exterior
material structural complexity
56
78
910
1112
13
NEURAL CORDREPTILIAN BRAIN STEM
LIMBIC SYSTEMNEOCORTEX (TRIUNE BRAIN)
COMPLEX NEOCORTEXSF1
SF2SF3
ORGANISM(BEHAVIOURAL)
CONSCIOUSNESS(INTENTIONAL)
56
7
1312
1110
98
PERCEPTIONIMPULSE
EMOTIONSYMBOLS
CONCEPTSCONOP
FORMOPVISION-LOGIC
INDIVIDUAL
12
34
5
ATOMSMOLECULES
PROKARYOTESEUKARYOTES
NEURONAL ORGANISMSNEURAL CORD
12
34
5
PHYSICAL-PLEROMATIC
PROTOPLASMIC
LOCOMOTIVE
VEGETATIVE
12
34
5
PREHENSION
IRRITABILITY
SENSATIONPERCEPTION
12
34
5
GALAXIES
PLANETSGAIA SYSTEM
HETEROTROPHIC ECOSYSTEMSSOCIETIES WITH DIVISIONS OF LABOUR
"
Increasing complexity of material organisation
Increasing complexity of ‘interior’ consciousness
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ORGANISATION(SOCIAL)
WORLDVIEW(CULTURAL)
56
78
910
1112
13
UROBORIC
TYPHONICARCHAIC
MAGICMYTHIC
RATIONAL
CENTAURIC13
1211
109
87
65 "
GROUPS / FAMILIES
" TRIBES
TRIBAL / VILLAGEEARLY STATE / EMPIRE
NATION / STATEPLANETARY
FORAGING
HORTICULTURALAGRARIAN
INDUSTRIALINFORMATIONAL
Adapted from Wilber
COLLECTIVE
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2. Complexity + Consciousness
• ‘Precursor analysis’ – ‘early/weak signals’What new forms of consciousness are emerging?– What new forms of consciousness are emerging?
– eg post-formal (ie beyond “formop”) modes• Systemic, Meta-systemic, Paradigmatic, Meta-
paradigmatic, …• Many writers consider changes in consciousness, e.g.,
– Global Mind Change (Harman)– Awakening Earth; Living Universe (Elgin)g ; g ( g )– Future Evolution of Man (Sri Aurobindo Ghose)
– How might these manifest as new forms of social organisation and techno-economic system?
3. Earth’s Big History as onecase
• “One voice in the cosmic fugue” (Sagan)
• Is Earth common or “rare”? (Ward & Brownlee)• Is Earth common or rare ? (Ward & Brownlee)
• Are there “other” big histories we can use?– Astrobiology & SETI
• Life, Intelligence, Society, Technology, …– Kardashev Civilisations (use of energy)
• Nature of transition from Type 0 to Type I…?
H i E th’ i il t diff t f• How is Earth’s case similar to or different from any possible “general” case which might exist?– Much interesting work yet to be done here …
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• These have been some ideas and questions intended to ‘open out’ ourquestions intended to open out our thinking about the future of our civilisation, species and planet
• We need to be able to imagine a wide variety of futures and options to help us navigate our way forwardnavigate our way forward …
• … and to decide which futures we want to make happen … and which we do not.
Thank you.
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ReferencesAhmed NM. A user’s guide to the crisis of civilisation: And how to save it. London: Pluto Press; 2010. Dator JA. Foreword. In: Slaughter RA, Inayatullah S, Ramos JM, editors. The knowledge base of futures
studies. Professional edn. Brisbane: Foresight International; 2005.Diamond J. Collapse: How societies choose to fail or survive. London: Allen Lane (Penguin); 2005. Elgin D. Awakening earth: Exploring the awakening of human culture and consciousness. New York: William
Morrow; 1993. El i D Th li i i Wh ? Wh ? Wh i ? S F i BElgin D. The living universe: Where are we? Who are we? Where are we going? San Francisco: Berret-
Koehler; 2009.Ghose A. The future evolution of man: The divine life upon Earth. Twin Lakes, WI, USA: Lotus Press; 2003. Greer JM. The long descent: A user’s guide to the end of the industrial age. New Society Publishers; 2008. Greer JM. The ecotechnic future: Envisioning a post-peak world. New Society Publishers; 2009. Harman WW. Global mind change: The promise of the twenty-first century. 2nd ed. San Francisco: Berrett-
Kohler Pubs.; 1998. Jantsch E. The self-organizing universe: Scientific and human implications of the emerging paradigm of
evolution. New York: Pergamon; 1980. Kardashev NS. Transmission of information by extraterrestrial civilizations. Soviet Astronomy 1964;8(2):217-
21. Plaxco KW, Gross M. Astrobiology: A brief introduction. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press; 2006. Sagan C Cosmos New York: Random House; 1980Sagan C. Cosmos. New York: Random House; 1980. Smil V. Energy transitions: History, requirements, prospects. Santa Barbara: Greenwood Publishing Group;
2010. Tainter JA. The collapse of complex societies. Cambridge University Press; 1990. Voros J. A generic foresight process framework. Foresight 2003;5(3):10-21.Voros J. Introducing a classification framework for prospective methods. Foresight 2006;8(2):43-56.Ward PD, Brownlee D. Rare Earth: Why complex life is uncommon in the universe. New York: Springer /
Copernicus; 2000. Wilber K. Sex, ecology, spirituality: The spirit of evolution. Boston: Shambhala; 1995.
С 17 по 20 февраля в Москве в гостинице “Рэдиссон САС Славянская” состоится Международный Конгресс Global Future 2045.
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