Vulnerability Assessment Progress

• Dissemination of study on climate change vulnerability indicators

• Identification of agroecosystems• Definition of methodology for each region• 4 sub-regional assessments in progress

Vulnerable Agriculture in the Gran Chaco Paraguay

Why is Vulnerability Assessment useful?

1. Provide decision-makers with information:• Causes and areas of

current and future vulnerability

• Adaptation actions• Mainstream adaptation

into policy and planning

2. Identify and influence adaptation investing and financing opportunities

Status 4 Sub-Regional Studies Vulnerability Assessment

Start/ expected end date

Centre of Excellence Relation to other projects

Regional: Gran Chaco

Local: Chaco Seco Paraguay

March - December 2012

La Universidad Nacional de Formosa, Desarrollo Participación Ciudanía, and Universidad de la Cordillera

Adaptation Fund (Paraguay) $7 millions

Regional: Andes

Local: Nor Yauyos-Cochas, Peru

Regional: May 2012 - January 2013

Local: June2012- February 2013

Regional: CIAT

Local: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina

MEBA $5.5 millionsGEBA$3 millions

Small Scale Agriculture Mesoamerica

ToRs to be posted by July 2012

N/A N/A

Coastal Agricultural Systems Caribbean

ToRs to be posted by August 2012

N/A N/A

Vulnerability to Climate Change

IPCC, 2001

Definition: Exposure to CC

Definition: Sensitivity to CC

CIAT (2011). Coffee Under Pressure.

Definition: Adaptive Capacity to CC

UK Department for InternationalDevelopment (DFID) sustainable livelihoodapproach (Farrington et al. 1999)

Examples of Indicators:

Physical capital: Road access (quality and distance)

Natural capital: Access and availability of water

Human capital: Access to formal and informal education

Social capital: Presence of community organizations

Financial capital: Access to credit

1. Vulnerability assessment results: Useful for project design and fundraising

2. Local scale: Clearly identify specific adaptation options

3. Importance of 3 vulnerability dimensions: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

4. A rigorous vulnerability assessment: Takes time, money, diversity of tools and expertise, and inter-institutional collaboration

Lessons Learned

Lessons Learned

#1. Results: Useful for project design and fundraising

CIAT (2011). Impact of Climate Change on Jamaican Hotel Industry Supply Chains on Farmers

Livelihoods.

Lessons Learned#2.Local scale: Clearly identify specific adaptation options#3. Importance of 3 Vulnerability components

• High exposure(changes in temperature and precipitation)

• High sensitivity (high variability in coffee yields)

• Low adaptive capacity (limited access to credit, limited knowledge on managing pests and disease)

Adaptation Focus:Crop diversification, strengthen local

capacity on farming management practices

CIAT (2011). Coffee Under Pressure.

#4. A rigorous vulnerability assessment : Takes time, money, diversity of tools and expertise, and inter-institutional collaboration

Lessons Learned

Key Tools• Meteorological data • Climate modeling• Agro-models (Eco-Crop)• Hydrologic models• Socio-economic indicators• Surveys and focus groups• Workshops with decision-makers• GIS

1. Stakeholders and Institutions

3. Current Climate

Conditions and Future Scenarios

2. Data and Information

4. Vulnerability of Agriculture

Sector

5. Social Vulnerability and

Adaptive Capacity

6. Vulnerability of Water

Resources

7. “Hot” Areas of Vulnerability

8. Adaptation Options

9. Adaptation Planning

Methodological Components

Preliminary Results from the Chaco

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How are Preliminary Results being Used?

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1. Identification of new projects and proposals2. Collaboration between financial institutions and

agriculture producers3. Development of a tool to evaluate climate risks and

agriculture insurance

Incorporating EBA

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Identify: 1. Key ecosystems and their services in the study area

2. Stressors and pressures affecting the resiliency of ecosystems to provide those services

3. Actions to confront those stressors

4. Benefits and feasibility of EbA actions versus alternative actions

Ecosystem Services

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005).

Assessing Threats to Ecosystems

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St. Vincent and the Grenadines 4th National Report to UNCBD (2010).

What if? Prioritising Policy Options

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Winograd, M., Perez-Soba, M. and Verweij, P.(2011). The Quickscan Approach. Toolbox to Support Decision and Policy Making.

Comparing Different Land Use Policies

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Winograd, M., Perez-Soba, M. and Verweij, P.(2011). The Quickscan Approach. Toolbox to Support Decision and Policy Making.

Adaptation Actions Honduras

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Winogard , M.(2007). Sustainability and Vulnerability Indicators for Decision Making: Lessons Learned from Honduras.

Resilience of Land Use

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Winogard, M. (2007). Sustainability and Vulnerability Indicators for Decision Making: Lessons Learned from Honduras.

Priorities 2012-13

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• Completion of 4 VIAS• REGATTA Workshop (January)• 2 publications on VIA and EbA• VIA Tool-Kit • On-line Community of Practice portal

Community of Practice– Adaptation- Andes