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Sources of World War IV Ethnopolitical conflicts Problems of transition to capitalism The North-South gap Competition for resources (energy, water, food) The ecological crisis Terrorism Interstate rivalries, economic and political The emergence of radical Islamist ideologies 9/11 as the “tipping point” to World War IV
The US acts as the hegemonic power Radical Islam and “rogue states” are in the role of
“the enemy” Promotion of liberal democracy “The unipolar moment” Unilateralism vs. multilateralism Determination to preserve US hegemony Rivals: rising centres of global power
EU China, India Brazil and others Russia
Use of force is becoming more frequent and larger in scale: invasions, terrorist attacks
The new concept of “preventive war” Militarization of outer space Dismantling of arms control, proliferation of nukes The danger that nuclear weapons may be used is
considered higher than in the Cold War New hi-tech weapons The war in people’s minds: ideas and beliefs,
religion A new culture of war?
"This fourth world war, I think, will last considerably longer than either World Wars I or II did for us. Hopefully not the full four-plus decades of the Cold War.“ – James Woolsey,
former Director of CIA*
*http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/04/03/sprj.irq.woolsey.world.war
THE WORLD’S MILITARY FORCES
20,000 nuclear weapons
120,000 battle tanks
35,000 combat aircraft
1,500 major warships
Over 23 million under arms (regular and irregular armies)
including 0.5 million women
and 0.2 million children under 15
USA 10,455
RF 8,400
China 400
France 350
Israel*** 250
UK 200
India*** 65
Pakistan*** 40
North Korea*** 8
Total 20,168
The World’s Nuclear Weapons, 2004 (data from Nuclear Threat Initiative)
*** Estimates
“The Long War” Guardian | America's Long War US Nuclear Primacy Foreign Affairs - The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy
- Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press
The patterns of war, early 21st century:
Mostly in the Global South -
even though most military preparations are in the North
Mostly within states, not between states
Casualties overwhelmingly civilian
Terrorism a widely used weapon
The threat of WMD use
The potential for escalation and spread
The era of global warfare has not ended: it has merely entered its next stage
The dialectics of integration and conflict in world politics Conflict and integration are inseparable from each other Integration has generated new conflicts They are undermining integration Will conflicts converge to produce large-scale warfare on
global scale? At what level of conflict will the world achieve more viable
and humane forms of integration?
Do we have alternatives to escalation?
See Kofi Annan’s report “In Larger Freedom”:
Report - Table of Contents
And UN Secretary-General’s High-level Panel’s report “A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility” :
Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel
A new global security consensus is needed The UN was created in 1945 as a collective
security organization – To prevent states from waging aggressive wars on
other states It was understood that peace and security would
require: facilitating socioeconomic development and protection of human rights
“Sixty years later, we know all too well that the biggest security threats we face now, and in the decades ahead, go far beyond States waging aggressive war…
…The threats are from non-state actors as well as States, and to human security as well as State security”.
From “A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility”
Examples of mutual insecurity Northern troubles – southern consequences
World Bank estimates: the attacks of 9/11 increased the number of
world poor by 10 milliontotal cost to the world economy – $80 bln.
Southern troubles – northern consequences9/11SARSH5N1 (Bird Flu)
“Six clusters of threats” Socioeconomic threats, including
poverty infectious disease environmental degradation
Inter-state conflict Internal conflict, including
Civil war Genocide Other large-scale atrocities
Proliferation and possible use of weapons of mass destruction nuclear radiological chemical biological
Terrorism Transnational organized crime
The “front line actors” to assure security – Individual sovereign states But they must act collectively – individually, they
cannot do the job The threats are transnational No state is invulnerable And an individual state may not be “able, or willing,
to meet its responsibility to protect its own peoples and not to harm its neighbours”
“What is needed today is nothing less than a new consensus between alliances that are frayed, between wealthy nations and poor, and among people mired in mistrust across an apparently widening cultural abyss. The essence of that consensus is simple: we all share responsibility for each other’s security. And the test of that consensus will be action.”
The primary challenge - PREVENTION How to prevent security threats from rising: DEVELOPMENT If successful -
Improves living conditions Builds state capacities Creates an environment which makes war less likely
But what if prevention fails? Conditions for legitimate use of force Article 51 and Chapter VII of the UN Charter They need no changes, but they must be used
more effectively Build a consensus on guidelines 5 guidelines:
Seriousness of threat Proper purpose Last resort Proportional means Balance of consequences
Other major issues arising during and after violent conflict: Needed capacities for peace enforcement: all
countries must contribute resources Peace-keeping Peace-building Protection of civilians
A more effective UN Revitalize the General Assembly Reform and make more effective the Security
Council (decision-making and contributions) Give attention, policy guidance and resources to
countries under stress, in conflict, and emerging from conflict
Security Council must work more closely with regional organizations
Institutions to address social and economic threats to international security
Create a more potent international body for the protection of human rights