Was Malthus Right After All? Can We Achieve Sustainable Development?

Prof. Jeffrey D. SachsInstitute of Development StudiesUniversity of Sussex, Brighton

December 11, 2008

FOUR DEEP DRIVERS OF GLOBALIZATION TODAY

Ecosystem Pressures in the Anthropocene Climate change; water stress; food supply; species extinction

Demographic Change Continued rapid population growth; Rebalancing global populations

(e.g. Africa, Islam); changing internal population balances; urbanization; aging; migration

Global Catch-Up Growth The Economics of pent-up growth. The Asian Growth Catch Up. Prospects for Global Growth

Fragile States Globalization as a cause of failed states? (e.g. Brain Drain) Globalization as an amplifier of the costs of failed states

The Two Senses of the Malthusian Threat:

Regions Trapped in Extreme Poverty and Hunger,Notably Sub-Saharan Africa

Global Society Facing Ecological Limits and the Possibility of Massive Overshooting and Reversals

World Gross Product

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100001500020000

2500030000

3500040000

Year (AD)

70,000

Billions, $USD PPP

ECOSYSTEM STRESS:

The Epoch of the Anthropocene

Fig. 2. Human dominanceor alteration ofseveral major componentsof the Earth system,expressed as (fromleft to right) percentageof the land surface transformed(5); percentageof the current atmosphericCO2 concentrationthat results from humanaction (17); percentageof accessiblesurface fresh water used (20); percentage of terrestrial N fixation that is human-caused (28); percentage of plant species in Canada that humanity has introduced from elsewhere (48); percentage of bird species on Earth that have become extinct in the past two millennia, almost all of them as a consequence of human activity (42); and percentage of major marine fisheries that are fully exploited, overexploited, or depleted (14).

The Three Great Drivers of Anthropogenic Change

Food

Energy

Industrial Pollutants (including those linked to food and energy)

Thresholds of Hypoxia in Marine Ecosystems, PNAS, 2008Vaquer-Sunyer and Duarte

DeadZoneIn GulfofMexico

SternReview

Kg Per Person, Annual

FAO Index of Net Food Output per Capita, 1961-2000

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Cereal Yields

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Sub-Saharan Africa

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World Bank World Development Indicators

Demography:

The Continuing Population Threat

Share of World Population

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Figure 1a: European and Western Islamic Population 800-2050 (millions)

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Europe

Western Islam

Europe Projected

Western IslamProjected

“Western Islam” = North Africa, the Middle East, and Turkey

The Age of Convergence Economics of Catch-Up Growth

Forces of Divergence (1750 – 1950)

Concentration of Technological Capacity +Resource Endowments +Political Conquest

Forces of Convergence (1950 - 2050)

Diffusion of Technological Capacity +Sovereignty

+Globalization

Figure 2.1: Annual Growth Rates from 1990-2005 vs. I ncome Level in 1990

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Per Capita I ncome in 1990 (as % of U.S. I ncome)

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ita I

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Potential Growth Rate

Actual Growth Rate ofSelected Countries

Source: Calculated using data from World Bank (2007)

China

Republic of KoreaIreland

SingaporeHong Kong

SpainU.K

Australia

Canada

France Germany

IcelandFinland

U.S.

GNP Shares by Region

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Afria and Latin America

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Gross National Product in 2025

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Projections of GNP in US, China, and India

FRAGILE STATES IN AN INTERCONNECTED WORLD

Ending Poverty Through Targeted Investments:

AgricultureHealthEducationInfrastructure:

roads, rail, power, water and sanitation, connectivityBusiness InstitutionsCommunity Institutions

The Millennium Development Goals

The Millennium Villages and Millennium Cities

The Sahel

El-Fasher Weather Station

Pathways to Sustainable DevelopmentGlobal Goals

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)Health for All (AIDS, TB, Malaria, others)Biological Diversity (UNCBD)Climate Change (UNFCCC)Desertification (UNCCD)

“Directed” Technological Change

Food, Energy, Pollutants

Population Stabilization

Sustainable Urbanization

Financing Global Public Goods (Who will pay and how?)

Global Ethics: Human Rights and the Human Future

The Need For Technological Advances

The Inadequacy of current technologies

Energy systemsFood systemsIndustrial ecology(pollutants, wastes, resource uses)

Incentives for RDD&D

For the poorFor the commonsFor resource scarcity

Creating an Innovation System for Sustainable Technologies

Patents, public financing, philanthropy, open-source, technology transfer mechanisms

The Role of Global Institutions

Which Institutions?

Supranational treaties (CBD, UNFCCC, UNCLOS)Global organizations (UN, Bretton Woods Institutions, WTO)Regional Governments (EU, AU, NAFTA)

Global Financing?

ODA, “New Financing Mechanisms” such as UNITAID, IFFm,Advanced Market Commitments, Carbon Levies, Tobin Tax

The Role of Social Knowledge, Culture, and Values

Sustainable lifestyles

urban life attitudes to equality and inequality(gender, class, race, nation, geography)attitudes towards fertilityattitudes towards migration and cultural diversityattitudes towards the future

Can We Afford Sustainable Development?

Climate Change Mitigation (≈ 1 percent of GNP)

Climate Change Adaptation (< 0.2 percent of GNP)

Global Poverty Reduction (0.7 percent of GNP)

Family Planning and Reproductive Health Services(< 0.1 percent of GNP)

De-Nuclearization (savings of > 0.1 percent of GNP)

Peace in today’s conflict zones (large savings)

Figure 12.3: Pentagon Spending and Malaria Needs

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

Two Days'Pentagon

Spending (FY 2007)

Malaria Control forAfrica (annual)

Bed Nets for allAfrican SleepingSites (five years'

coverage)

President's MalariaBudget (FY 2007)

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ion

s o

f U

.S. $

Source: Data from Congressional Budget Off ice (2007) and Teklehaimanot, McCord and Sachs (2007)

Total Budget OutlaysOf the US Federal Government

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Towards a Global Ethic

The Future is “Under-Determined”:

Possibilities of Historical Disjuncture (1914, 1917, 1933, 1945)

Scientific and Technological Potential is At All-Time High

“Leadership” is the alignment of expectations

Democratization, Decentralization, and Governability

Is Global Cooperation Feasible?

Clash of Civilizations?

Resource Wars and Interstate Competition?

International Commitments, Enforceability, and Free Riders

The diverse roles of international organizations, states, business, civil society, and individuals

“So let us not be blind to our differences, but let us also direct attention to our common interests and the means by which those differences can be resolved. And if we cannot end now our differences, at least we can help make the world safe for diversity. For in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children's futures. And we are all mortal.”

John F. KennedyAmerican UniversityJune 10, 1963