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July2,2020
WashingtonAreaEconomy:PerformanceandOutlook
CenterforRegionalAnalysisSchar SchoolofPolicyandGovernment
GeorgeMasonUniversity
U.S.GrossDomesticProduct
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis(SeasonallyAdjusted,Chained2012Dollars)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020$10,000
$11,000
$12,000
$13,000
$14,000
$15,000
$16,000
$17,000
$18,000
$19,000
$20,000
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8QuarterlyChange RealGDP(Billions)
%
Q12019-Q12020+0.32%
AnnualChangeinU.S.PayrollJobsMonth-Over-Year
-20500
-15500
-10500
-5500
-500
4500
9500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
Jun2019–Jun2020-13,226M
-21000
-16000
-11000
-6000
-1000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
USPayrollJobChangeMonth-to-Month
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
Jun2020–Jul2020+4.8M
115000
120000
125000
130000
135000
140000
145000
150000
155000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1-mo.change(inthousands)
totalpayrolljobs(inmillions)
U.S.PayrollJobs
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
Since2010(May2010)+7.9M
Since2019(12-mo.∆)-13.2M
Jun– Jul2020
(1mo.∆)+4.8M
U.S.PayrollJobChangebySector12-MonthNetChange(June2020)
56
-286
-444
-707
-282
-330
-124
-743
-1,215
-4,486
-1,333
-1,574
-1,359
-5000.0 -4500.0 -4000.0 -3500.0 -3000.0 -2500.0 -2000.0 -1500.0 -1000.0 -500.0 0.0 500.0
FederalGovt.Information
Transp.&Util.OtherServices
WholesaleTradeConstruction
FinancialManufacturingRetailTrade
Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovtProf.&Bus.Svcs
Educ&HealthSvcs
total=-12.8M
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
RankedbySizein2019 (000s)
1
9
99
357
68
158
32
356
740
2,088
32
306
568
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
FederalGovt.Information
Transp.&Util.OtherServices
WholesaleTradeConstruction
FinancialManufacturingRetailTrade
Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovtProf.&Bus.Svcs
Educ&HealthSvcs(000s)RankedbySizein2019
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
U.S.PayrollJobChangebySector1-MonthNetChange(Jun2020)
total=+4.8M
-10%
14%
49%
23%
61%
25%
44%
48%
44%
-56%
20%
38%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
InformationTransp.&Util.OtherServices
WholesaleTradeConstruction
FinancialManufacturingRetailTrade
Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovtProf.&Bus.Svcs
Educ&HealthSvcs(000s)RankedbySizein2019
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
U.S.PayrollJobChangebySectorPercentageofJobGainssinceAprilLosses
total=+2.9M
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
U.S.UnemploymentRate
%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
Jun202011.1%
Jun– Jul1-mo.∆- 2.2%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
U.S.Unemployment
June18.0%
U-6
UR
LFPR
June11.1%
June61.5%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
62.25
62.50
62.75
63.00
63.25
63.50
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jun2019-Jun2020(12-mo.)change:
U-6+10.8%UR+7.4%LFPR-1.5%
175
1,175
2,175
3,175
4,175
5,175
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source:DepartmentofLabor(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
Jun27
S.A.+1.43M
2007-20average401.2k
(000s)
InitialClaimsforUnemployment4-WeekMovingAverage(2007-2020)
200
1200
2200
3200
4200
5200
6200
7200
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source:DepartmentofLabor(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
(000s)
InitialClaimsforUnemployment4-WeekMovingAverage(2011-2020)
Jun27
S.A.+1.43M
2011-20average383k
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
AverageWeeklyEarnings
RealAverageWeeklyEarnings(1982-84dollars)
12-month%change(MOTYC)
Jun2020
AvgHourlyWages+5.0%
AvgWeeklyEarnings+5.3%
RealAvgWeeklyEarnings+7.3%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
AverageWeeklyEarningsU.S.,TotalPrivate,AcrossallIndustries
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
QOTYC Index
LaborProductivityNonfarmbusiness,seasonallyadjusted
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
Baseyear(100)=2012
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
ConsumerConfidence
Source:TheConferenceBoard,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
ExpectationsIndex
PresentSituationIndex
June2020Pres.=86.2Exp.=106.0
(1985=100)
AnnualConsumerPrices2001-2019YearoverYear%Change
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
42001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
12-month%change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
12-month%change
MonthlyConsumerPrices2001– 2020
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
30-Yr
10-YrTreas
Fed
InterestRates2001- 2019
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
%
-3.50
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1953195519571959196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019
10-year/1-yearTreasuryYieldConstantMaturityRateYieldSpread(1953-Present)
NotSeasonallyAdjusted
Source:FederalReserveEconomicData(FRED),FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
%
Note:horizontalaxis“tickmarks”reflectJune1ofeachyear
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ExistingHomeSales
NewHomeSales
U.S.HomeSalesNewandExisting(2013-Present)
(000s)
Source:U.S.Census(NewHomeSales)[SeasonallyAdjustedAnnualRate],NationalAssociationofRealtors(ExistingHomeSales)
(000s)
ExistingHomeSales12-monthchangeMay 19– May 20
- 26.64%
NewHomeSales12-monthchangeMay 19– May 20
+13.04%
ChangeinU.S.PersonalConsumptionExpenditures
5.1
2.5 2.63.2
3.8 3.63.1
2.2
-0.2
-1.3
1.7 1.91.5 1.5
2.9
3.7
2.7 2.5 2.6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
62000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis
1.9
-0.1
-2.5
2.6
1.62.2
1.8
2.52.9
1.62.2
2.92.3
-4
-2
0
2
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
U.S.GDPAnnual%Change2007– 2018
%
TheWashingtonEconomy
ElementsofPopulationChangeWashingtonMSA
48,235 49,169 47,989 47,150 46,096 43,886 42,616 40,778 39,384
24,87239,715 36,871 43,070 47,495
40,581 44,760 39,62122,977
21,5176,843
4,495
-24,741 -27,907 -31,010 -21,543 -30,581 -29,748
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
NaturalIncrease NetInternationalMigration NetDomesticMigration
1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.52%
PopulationChange
Source:U.S.CensusBureau,PopulationEstimatesProgram(2018estimates)
-300-275-250-225-200-175-150-125-100-75-50-2502550751001251501991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
AnnualJobChangeWashingtonMSA(1991-2020)
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
employees,inthousands
AnnualJobChangeWashingtonMSA(2012-2020)
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
-370
-320
-270
-220
-170
-120
-70
-20
30
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12-monthnetchange totalemployees
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
thousands thousands
May 2020Total:3.04M
May19-May 20- 317k
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020DC SMD NoVA DCMSA
AnnualJobChangeWashingtonMSA,DC-SMD-NoVA (2012-2020)
employees,inthousands
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
301991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
AnnualJobChangeDistrictofColumbia(1991-2020)
employees,inthousands
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12-monthnetchange totalemployees
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
thousands thousands
May2020Total:726.2k
AnnualJobChangeDistrictofColumbia(2012-2020)
May19-May 20- 67.2k
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
401991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
employees,inthousandsAnnualJobChange
SuburbanMaryland(1991-2020)
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12-monthnetchange totalemployeesSource:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
thousands thousands
May 2020Total:914.6k
AnnualJobChangeSuburbanMaryland(2012-2020)
May 19-May 20- 46.6k
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
-140.0
-120.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12-monthnetchange totalemployees
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
thousands thousands
May2020Total:1.38M
AnnualJobChangeNorthernVirginia(2012-2020)
May 19-May 20
- 133.4k
EmploymentCompositionbySectorWashingtonMSAMay 2020
1.8%2.0%2.1%2.4%
5.2%5.2%
6.5%7.8%
6.0%10.8%
12.1%13.3%
24.9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
ManufacturingWholesaleTrade
Transportation&UtilitiesInformation
FinancialActivitesConstruction
OtherServicesRetailTrade
Leisure&HospitalityState&LocalGovernment
FederalGovernmentEducation&HealthServices
Professional&BusinessServices
JobChangebySectorWashingtonMSAMay2019– May2020
Total=-317,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-2.8-2.4
-8.7-2.9-1.2
-8.4-14.0
-32.2-163.1
-20.54.0
-42.5-22.3
-180.0 -160.0 -140.0 -120.0 -100.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0
ManufacturingWholesaleTrade
Transport/UtilitiesInformationFinancial
ConstructionOtherServicesRetailTrade
Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovt
FederalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf/BusinessSvcs
(RankedbySizein2019)
JobChangebySectorWashingtonMSA
May 2020– Jun 2020(000s) Total=-6.8k
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
1.2-1.4
-0.3-2.2
2.30.5
-0.91.5
-0.1-6.2
0.94.2
-6.3
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
ManufacturingWholesaleTrade
Transport/UtilitiesInformationFinancial
ConstructionOtherServicesRetailTrade
Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovt
FederalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf/BusinessSvcs
(RankedbySizein2019)
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
MOTYCTotalJobs
Professional&BusinessServicesWashingtonMSA
(000s)
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
(000s)
May 19-May 20
- 22.3k
600.0
620.0
640.0
660.0
680.0
700.0
720.0
740.0
760.0
780.0
800.0
820.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0Professional, Science & Tech MOTYC Admin Support & Waste Mgmt MOTYC Professional & Business Services Employees (total)
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
Professional&BusinessServicesWashingtonMSA
(000s) (000s)
FederalGovernmentWashingtonMSA
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysisMay2020total:366.7k
(000s) (000s)
345
350
355
360
365
370
375
380
385
390
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYCTotalJobs
May2019–May2020+4.0k
FederalSpendingintheWashingtonMSAFiscalYears1980-2019
4.2 5.0 5.8 6.7 7.7 9.0 10.7
11.4
11.5
11.9
12.6
14.6
15.6
16.1
17.9
19.4
20.8
21.7 24.8 27.7
29.3 32.1 37.1 44
.052.6
54.5 57.1
59.167.9 75
.8 80.0
78.0
76.0
70.6 73.1
74.0 78.5 83.5 88.7
82.6
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
|FY80-89=$83.9B|
|FY00-09=$509.5B|
|FY90-99=$191.2B|
($Billions)
Total=$1,569.3Billion
Source:USAspending.gov
|FY10-19=$784.7B|
JobChangebySectorDistrictofColumbia
May 2019– May 2020
-0.20.2
-1.3-1.3-1.1
-2.8-0.2-0.2-0.6
-49.6-7.7
-4.92.5
-60.0 -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0
ManufacturingWholesaleTradeTransp.&Util.ConstructionInformationRetailTrade
State&LocalGovtFinancial
OtherServicesLeisure&Hosp.
Educ&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs
FederalGovt.
(000s) Total-67.2k
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
(RankedbySizein2019)
JobChangebySectorDistrictofColumbia
May 2020– Jun2020
0.0-0.1
-0.40.3
-1.9-0.3
-0.90.2
-0.1-2.9
-1.9-4.6
0.6
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0
ManufacturingWholesaleTradeTransp.&Util.ConstructionInformationRetailTrade
State&LocalGovtFinancial
OtherServicesLeisure&Hosp.
Educ&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs
FederalGovt.
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
(000s) Total-12.0k(RankedbySizein2019)
JobChangebySectorSuburbanMaryland
May 2019– May 2020
-2.5-3.0-3.0
-0.6-0.5
-10.2-4.7
1.1-39.1
-13.9-9.0
-18.0-10.9
-45.0 -40.0 -35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0
InformationWholesaleTradeTransp.&Util.Manufacturing
FinancialOtherServicesConstructionFederalGovt.
Leisure&Hosp.RetailTrade
State&LocalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs
Total:-114.3k
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
(000s)(RankedbySizein2019)
JobChangebySectorSuburbanMaryland
May2020– Jun2020
-0.10.1
-0.40.7
2.00.2
-0.80.7
2.80.7
-1.63.9
-1.5
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
InformationWholesaleTradeTransp.&Util.Manufacturing
FinancialOtherServicesConstructionFederalGovt.
Leisure&Hosp.RetailTrade
State&LocalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs
Total:-6.7k
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
(000s)(RankedbySizein2019)
JobChangebySectorNorthernVirginia
May 2019– May 2020
-0.6-0.8
1.3-5.1
-9.40.6
-4.00.0
-12.9-64.5
-7.4-24.8
-5.8
-70.0 -60.0 -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0
ManufacturingWholesaleTrade
InformationTransp.&Util.OtherServices
FinancialConstructionFederalGovt.RetailTrade
Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs
Total-133.4k
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
(000s)(RankedbySizein2019)
JobChangebySectorNorthernVirginia
May2020– Jun 2020
0.1-0.9
0.0-1.0
0.20.5
1.2-0.2
2.14.6
-3.80.1
0.7
-8.0 -5.0 -2.0 1.0 4.0 7.0
ManufacturingWholesaleTrade
InformationTransp.&Util.OtherServices
FinancialConstructionFederalGovt.RetailTrade
Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs
Total+3.8k
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
(000s)(RankedbySizein2019)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
Dec2009 Dec2010 Dec2011 Dec2012 Dec2013 Dec2014 Dec2015 Dec2016 Dec2017 Dec2018 Dec2019
May 2020DC 8.5US 13.3SMD 8.6MSA 9.0NVA 9.7
UnemploymentRatesintheWMSABySub-StateArea
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
DallasPhoenix
Seattle
Houston
Atlanta
SF-Oakland
LosAngeles
DC NewYork
Miami
Boston
Philadelphia
Detroit
Chicago
Minneapolis
Washington-9.5%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional AnalysisSource:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
15LargestJobMarketsJobChangeMay 2019– May 2020
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
U.S.GDPandWashingtonMSAGRPAnnual%Change2008– 2020
WashingtonMSA
U.S.
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis.ChainedDollars
LongcommutesdiminishqualityoflifeProportionofworkerswithtraveltimetoworkof60ormoreminutes
Source:USCensusBureau,2018AmericanCommunitySurvey(TableS0802)
6.2%7.6%
8.2%8.4%8.4%
9.2%9.5%10.0%
11.2%11.3%
14.2%14.7%14.7%
15.5%19.2%
20.7%21.1%21.5%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Minneapolis(1,966,186)Phoenix(2,252,077)Denver(1,607,215)Detroit(2,038,659)
Pittsburgh(1,130,004)Dallas(3,791,790)
UnitedStates(154,609,443)Philadelphia(2,709,202)
Houston(3,312,236)Miami(2,992,970)Seattle(2,119,472)Atlanta(2,962,938)Chicago(4,741,646)
LosAngeles(6,673,806)WashingtonDC(3,497,447)SanFrancisco(2,526,639)
NewYork(8,996,152)Boston(1,274,261)
WMATAMetrorail
AverageWeekdayMetrorailRidership12-month%change(2006-2018)
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Metrorail Alexandria Arlington Fairfax DistrictofColumbia
Maryland Virginia Linear(Metrorail)
Source:WashingtonMetropolitanAreaTransitAuthority(WMATA);CenterforRegionalAnalysis
HousingMarketTrends
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Feb2011 Feb2012 Feb2013 Feb2014 Feb2015 Feb2016 Feb2017 Feb2018 Feb2019 Feb2020-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
12-Month%Change EndofMonthInventory
May19-
May20
-23.8%
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
Note:Endofmonthinventoryincludes:(1)AllPendingListingsand(2)ActiveListings.
InventoriesofExistingHomesWashingtonMSAMOTYC(2011-2020)
EOMinventory
May201929,344units
May202022,355units
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
12-MonthPercentChangeinInventoriesofExistingHomes
WashingtonMSAMOTYC(2000– 2020)
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
Apr– May2020
-6.7%
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,0001999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
12-MonthMovingAverage
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May20203,745
ExistingHomeSalesWashingtonMSA(DCMetroRegion)
Jan1999– May2020
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20
ExistingHomeSalesWashingtonMSA(DCMetroRegion)
Month-Over-YearChangeFeb2011– May2020
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020-1,943
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source:U.S.CensusBureau,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis
WashingtonMSABuildingPermits2012-2019,Three-MonthMovingAverage
May20201,500permitsissued
1,8393-moavg
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
permits inventory
PermitsandInventoriesWashingtonMSA(2010-2020)
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata);U.S.CensusBureau
ExistingHomeSalesandPermits12-monthmovingaverageofMOTYC%change
WashingtonMSA
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12-moMOTYCavgpermits 12-moMOTYCavghomesales
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata);U.S.CensusBureau
MedianHomeSalesPriceWashingtonMSA
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020$440.0k
12-monthmovingaverage(thousandsofdollars)
MedianHomeSalesPriceArlington,AlexandriaCity,andWashingtonMSA
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Arlington AlexandriaCity 12per.Mov.Avg.(WashingtonMSA)
12per.Mov.Avg.(Arlington) 12per.Mov.Avg.(AlexandriaCity)
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
(thousandsofdollars)
MedianHomeSalesPriceArlington&WashingtonMSAMovingAverages(2000-2020)
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
6502000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
12per.Mov.Avg.(WashingtonMSA) 12per.Mov.Avg.(Arlington)
(thousandsofdollars)
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
625
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Arlington Fairfax Loudoun
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
(thousandsofdollars)
MedianHomeSalesPriceArlington,FairfaxandLoudouncounties
12-monthmovingaverages|Feb2011– May2020
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Arlington Fairfax Loudoun
ClosedHomeSalesArlington,FairfaxandLoudouncounties
12-monthmovingaverages|Jan2009– May2020
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
ClosedHom
eSales,ActualValues
MedianSalesPriceWashingtonMSA
Month-Over-Year%Change|Jan2011– May2020
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020MEDIANsalesprice$440,000
AverageSalesPriceMonth-Over-Year%Change
WashingtonMSA
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020AVERAGEsalesprice$518,350
AverageSalesPriceMonth-Over-Year%Change
DistrictofColumbia
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020AVERAGEsalesprice$777,664
AverageSalesPriceMonth-Over-Year%Change
SuburbanMaryland
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020AVERAGEsalesprice$469,925
AverageSalesPriceMonth-Over-Year%Change
NorthernVirginia
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020AVERAGEsalesprice$574,102
ActiveListingstoClosedSalesRatio
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ArlingtonFairfaxLoudounPrinceWilliamDCMontgomeryPrinceGeorge’s
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
ActiveListingstoClosedSalesRatioGreaterWashingtonDCArea
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020ActiveListings 10,183ClosedSales 6,485Listings:Sales 1.57
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyDetached
NorthernVirginia(2011-2020) (000s)
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020$707kavgSP+2.8%MOTYC
$315
$335
$355
$375
$395
$415
$435
$455
$475
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyAttached:Townhomes
NorthernVirginia(2011-2020) (000s)
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May 2020$477.7kavgSP+1.0%MOTYC
$255
$265
$275
$285
$295
$305
$315
$325
$335
$345
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyAttached:Condos
NorthernVirginia(2011-2020) (000s)
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020$359kavgSP+4.7%MOTYC
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyDetached
DistrictofColumbia(2011-2020) (000s)
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May 2020$1.23MavgSP+21.0%MOTYC
$460
$510
$560
$610
$660
$710
$760
$810
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyAttached:Townhomes
DistrictofColumbia(2011-2020) (000s)
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020$829.6kavgSP-3.5%MOTYC
$400
$420
$440
$460
$480
$500
$520
$540
$560
$580
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyAttached:CondosDistrictofColumbia(2011-2020) (000s)
Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)
May2020$571.5kavgSP+3.4%MOTYC
Thank You
cra.gmu.edu
NOTICEDue to the COVID-19 Pandemic, we are suspending our Outlook for the remainder of 2020 at this time. As economic data become available and we understand better when personal and business activities can begin to move towards normal, we will update projections for national and regional economic performance.
In the meantime, please visit the CRA website for updated information on local housing market performance and other key economic data at:
https://cra.gmu.edu/covid19/
Be Well! Be Safe!
We hope to see you soon.