WATER RESOURCES PLANNING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

C O N F E R E N C E REVIEW

WATER R E S O U R C E S P L A N N I N G IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

WILLIAM J . M I L L S

1. Introduction

In the past the requirements of man for water were generally modest and the development of water resources to meet his needs was on a small scale. Planning was therefore on an ad hoc basis only; and when demands for water exceeded available supplies, deci- sions on new sources were taken at a local level, both by public and private bodies, com- monly independent of each other. In many cases these developments had limited effect on the environment.

This situation has now changed. Growth of population, agricultural and industrial developments and improved living standards produce increasing demands for water. Disposal of water is also a matter of growing concern as frequently its use causes a degradation of quality. This increase in water demands and the resulting problems of water quality degradation and environmental impacts, has lead to an increasing need for sound water resources planning. A water resources plan must be consistent with the over- all economic, social and environmental policies of the country concerned, and it is a key element t o ensure that water resources contribute to the country's development objectives.

The United Nations Workshop on Water Resources Planning: Experiences in a National and Regional Context, organized in Italy from 18 to 29 June 1979 by the United Nations Centre for Natural Resources, Energy and Transport in co-operation with the Government of Italy, brought together 70 participants from 36 countries to share experiences on water planning organization, procedures and problems. The workshop was an outgrowth of the UN Water Conference recommendations dealing with policy, planning and management, and focused on three principal agenda items: (i) planning at the central level; relative advantages and disadvantages: (ii) decentralized planning; relative advantages and disadvantages; and (iii) application of systems analysis as a tool for water resources planning.

William J. Mills is a Technical Officer with the Centre for Natural Resources, Energy and Transport. Mr. Mills, a civil engineer by profession, was with La Compagnie Francaise d'Etudes et de Construc- tion, Rueil Malmaison, France before joining the United Nations Secretariat in 1975, and has also worked in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom. He is a member of the Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, United Kingdom, and of the Institution of Engineers, Australia.

Natural Resources Forum 4 (1 980) 197-203. AN Rights Reserved. Copyright 0 1980 by United Nations, N. Y . , U.S.A.

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2. Objectives and aims of water resources planning

The workshop recognized that, in its simplest form, the objective of water resources planning is to satisfy demand for water for all purposes in order to help to achieve the economic, social and environmental goals of the country as a whole, and of its component regions individually. To realize this objective, it was agreed that a number of aims or targets would need to be set, which, it was stated, are llkely to include the following:

(a) Identification of existing water resources and of their present uses for all purposes; (b) Evaluation of the quality of the existing and potential surface and groundwater

resources; (c) Estimation of the future demands for water for all purposes, both in the medium

term (5 to 10 years) and in the long term (20 to 30 years); (d) Assessments of the resources available to meet future demands (demand/supply

relationships); (e) Formulation of alternative plans to develop the resources of a country or region

to match the forecast demands, where possible, or where not possible to introduce new means of augmenting resources;

(0 Adoption and implementation of the optimum development plan; (8) Continuous monitoring and periodic review, and adjustment where appropriate,

of the adopted plan. The participants were very much aware that water resources planning needs to be a

continuous process which aims to meet the requirements of all sectors of water use relating to water quality and environmental issues. It was further recognized that, while in theory a planning process should achieve (i) an optimum coardination of all water uses: (ii) optimum allocation of withdrawals by existing and potential water users; and (iii) their optimum location, in practice most achievements are likely to be less than optimal. Therefore, a long term water resources plan should provide to the extent practi- cable a comprehensive analysis of sectoral inter-relationships, their effect on the national economy and, where appropriate, on international arrangements for water use. On the other hand, such a comprehensive plan must also recognize needs and objectives and provide a mechanism and framework within which they can be fulfilled on a more decentralized basis.

3. Criteria for successful planning

Much attention was paid to the criteria for successful planning, an area in which the workshop identified the following needs:

(a) Availability of reliable data bases (hydrologic, economic, demographc, etc.), upon which the yield of water resources and their uses can be assessed;

(b) Generation of alternative water resources development strategies, each of which should be evaluated with respect to costs and benefits, advantages and disadvantages, secondary effects and other implications, each with the same degree of accuracy:

(c) Selection of the preferred strategy, which must take into account local, regional and national priorities and should involve two-way communication and co-ordination among all levels during the planning process;

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(d) Implementation of the preferred strategy, which should proceed expeditiously following its acceptance by the relevant authorities. The preferred strategy should be pursued on a phased and flexible basis, having in mind national policies and priorities among component parts of the plan;

(e) A mechanism to monitor the performance of the plan, with provisions for modifying it if circumstances, needs or priorities change.

The workshop further acknowledged the value of producing a water resources development plan covering not less than 20 years, rolled forward periodically (if possible an- nually), and dealing specifically with investment for the next five years. Such a plan should also provide a view on the longer term across all sectors of water use.

4. Constraints on water resources planning

In reviewing some of the problems encountered in water resources planning, the participants recognized that the process of comprehensive planning in many developing countries is handicapped by a number of constraints, such as lack of adequate data on socio- economic, engineering and other parameters, shortage of properly trained manpower to handle sophisticated aspects of planning, financial, legal and institutional restrictions, and international constraints.

Situations were reported where inappropriate plans based on highly idealized assump- tions were executed only to discover that planned objectives were difficult to achieve, and where, in the absence of arrangements for unbiased monitoring of the completed water projects, the discrepancy in the planning process remained undetected for quite some time. There were other situations where successive development plans were drawn up under technical assistance programmes, but were never implemented for lack of funds and implementation capabilities.

Participants felt that constraints such as these would impinge in different ways upon successful planning. Far example, it was pointed out that a shortage of skilled technical manpower would indicate the desirability of a more centralized system in order to more efficiently deploy such manpower, instead of distributing it sparsely throughout the country.

5. The potential of systems analysis in water resources planning

The use of scientific methods of operations research and systems analysis to solve problems of water development planning attracted great attention at the workshop. Many instances were reported of their use in planning in respect to problems of resource allocation. All agreed that the potential for such techniques, especially for solving complex planning problems which abound in water resources development, is very great.

In summarizing the role of systems analysis in water resources planning, it was brought out that systems analysis aids the decision maker by working on those areas of his problems that can yield useful quantitative results. It can replace the conventional static approach with a dynamic one, applied to what are, in fact, generally dynamic problems.


Systems analysis offers a rapid and definitive method of assessment of alternative solutions to water resource problems. It is particularly useful in those water-short areas where scarce resources must be used as effectively as possible.

Systems analysis, when carried out by experienced water resource planners and engineers, contributes to efficiency and improvement of the planning process in three ways: it provides an assessment of the relevant factors including data requirements, and the ways they interact; it assists by calculation, promotes planned experimentation, and simulates the selection of the best path for the desired goal; and it predicts the possible consequences of various actions and policies.

Systems analysts need to work in close co-operation with individuals farmliar with the characteristics of the water systems under study, and the constraints confronting the decision makers, and it is desirable that the final decision should be made by an authority knowledgeable about such characteristics, and not by an outsider.

6 . Need for systems analysis in water policy, planning and management

The participants at the workshop were very much aware that with today’s increased concern for economic efficiency in water resources investment and for environmental considerations, there is also increased awareness of the potential for multi-purpose use of water resources as well as for the need to exploit the conjunctive use of various surface and groundwater systems. In discussing this point, it was recognized that the basic considerations for dealing with this wider view required a much more elaborate framework to weigh choices among projects. In this context the workshop indicated the following points to show both that systems analysis provides a useful tool for aiding decision makers and the demand for this approach:

(a) Major water projects typically involve large-scale integral, virtually permanent, physical changes in the environment; large lakes and hydropower potential are created, navigable water ways provided, flood-plains protected;

(b) The expertise of many traditional disciplines (engineer, agronomist, economist, legal expert, and so on) can best be integrated through the systems approach;

(c) The size and capital intensive characteristics of investments in water projects, especially in the face of budgetary constraints, and the fact that they often have a major effect on the economy of the region, suggest the desirability of achieving even small improvements in efficiency, which is made easily possible with a systems approach;

(d) The over-all project design achieved with systems analysis is likely to be more effective - especially in complex cases - than that designed by using conventional water resource design techniques;

(e) Systems analysis techniques lend themselves to continuous modifications and adaptation to accommodate changing needs, objectives and constraints. Due to this fact such studies can be carried out on a continuing, as opposed to a “stop-start,’’ or fragment- ed basis;

( f ) Systems analysis has had many successful applications in the management of industrial projects, and similar techniques can be used to manage the operation of existing water resources projects.

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7. Constraints to the application of systems analysis

The workshop, while recognizing the need for and the potential of the systems approach, paid special attention to problems arising from the application of systems analysis and indicated the following constraints:

Lack of specially trained skilled professionals - Most of the senior professionals in institutions concerned with water resources planning received their training and experience before systems analysis techniques were in use. This makes it difficult for them to assess the utility of the new techniques. However, it was felt that this situation is changing and that the rate of change will accelerate over the next decade.

Ineffective communication - Systems analysts have communicated chiefly with each other rather than with other professionals in the area of water resources planning. It was reported that sometimes in communication with decision makers, undue emphasis has been placed on the complexities of mathematical techniques. Recent studies have demon- strated that success in the application of systems analysis techniques is enhanced by clear presentation of project alternatives to the decision makers. Systems analysts need to be sensitive to this lack of receptivity on the part of senior personnel. When a decision is made, the decision maker should not use results from a model unless he has had sufficient involvement with the model to have confidence in its results.

Terms of reference for consultants - It was also pointed out that the terms of reference of the consultants are often inadequately formulated. In this context, too much emphasis is sometimes placed on delivering the solution to particular problems in time, and too little attention is given to building residual capacity within the agency. Applica- tions of systems analysis tend to be terminal in nature rather than continuing analytical and management tools. Not enough attention is paid to ensure that the model and computer programmes can be carried forward by local staff. Staff training should be part of the consultant services.

Reliability of the data base - Most systems analysis applications are data intensive and sensitive to the quality of the data. In many developing countries the data on economic, social and natural resources parameters are poor in the sense of time series, breadth of coverage and accuracy. In such situations administrators are understandably suspicious of the use of systems analysis. When data are not readily available, the data gap should be clearly identified and the model should allow for the insertion of such data in the analysis at a later date.

In-house capabilities - It was noted that in a number of developing countries in-house capabilities do not exist for undertaking systems analysis, or even for inter- preting the result of model studies. This creates difficulties for the application of modern techniques to the planning process. The consensus was that there should be certain minimum in-house systems capabilities and planning agencies should not rely solely on consultants. A further advantage of such in-house capabilities is the assurance that systems analysis and other innovative techniques can be applied on a continuing basis.

Standardization - It was indicated that, as yet, there is no set of standard or generally applicable models readily available, in spite of the areas of recurring problems with similar characteristics. Programmes for planning municipal water supplies, pipe network systems, regional water balance problems, irrigation and drainage systems, quality models


for regional water management, financial analysis and capital budgeting for public water and wastewater utilities all fit this criterion. While some of the same techniques are often applied, new models and programmes are generally written each time. This involves delays and unnecessary extra costs in applying the systems approach. Further research appears warranted to identify areas in which a stock of flexible software packages exist, consisting of models and programmes.

8. Conclusions

The main conclusions of the workshop were as follows: (a) Water resources planning and its implementation cannot be brought about

unilaterally. Water use is closely linked with the use of other equally important resources such as land, while water supply services are part of broader integrated programmes of urban, sectoral and regional development. The decision making process in water-related matters should be the result of the interaction of a number of organizations. The es- tablishment of either a national or regional authority by itself does not guarantee the full integration, unification and harmonization of the process since it is difficult to establish a single organization that covers all facets of water management. At the regional level, water planning should be based on a national viewpoint and regional development. The national viewpoint tends to consider the long-term planning aspects, while at regional level, medium and short term concerns predominate. There is a need, therefore, for CO-

ordination of interests in order to obtain a proper balance among national, regional and sectoral aims and priorities. This is of particular importance when a river basin comprises several regions or states.

(b) To formulate and keep up-todate a water plan, an iterative methodology should be adopted which allows for modification through knowledge and experience acquired from the monitoring and ex-post evaluation of the programmes being implemented.

(c) The organization created to prepare a water plan will require a creative, multi- disciplinary staff whose members have had experience in water management, but who should be released from regular responsibilities while serving as members of the planning team.

(d) To be effective, central planning needs to be clearly related to sectoral and regional planning organizations and water users, and it must be linked to the decision making process. It follows, therefore, that a central water organization must establish a system of two-way communication and co-ordination, both vertically and horizontally.

(e) Systems analysis techniques have the potential for significantly expediting and improving the water resources planning process. Many of the problems in this area of resource development are so complex that these techniques offer a greater degree of ob- jectivity and flexibility. In such cases the use of systems analysis is likely to identify significant potential decreases in water resources development costs and increases in project benefits, as compared to conventional methods. The workshop recognized the importance of social factors and their relationships with physical parameters. Continued improvements in the hardware and software capabilities will assist this development.

(f) Systems analysis will always be an aid to managers in this field, not a replacement for professional experience.

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(8) It will always be necessary to recognize the limitations of the techniques in planning and managing water resource systems.

(h) Systems analysis objectives need to include those of an environmental and social nature. These should be integrated into the early stages of planning in order to arrive at broadly based solutions which are sensitive to these concerns.

(i) The general conclusions reached for the potentials of systems analysis argue for the recommendation that the use of systems analysis in water and related land use planning should be promoted. For this to come about, the following factors need to be taken into account:

(1) The receptivity of senior personnel to the use of systems analysis could be aided by convincingly demonstrating its effectiveness to planning heads.

(2) The communication and understanding of systems analysis should be aided by less mathematically oriented discussions: the increased use of well-designed short courses emphasizing the links of the systems approach to more traditional techniques; and utili- zation of discussions that emphasize the strength and limitations of the approach rather than mathematics.

(3) Systems studies should integrate operational personnel into the effort. Hence, agencies should ensure in-house capabilities, and not rely solely on consultants.

(4) Consultants undertaking systems studies should help train local personnel so as to provide continuing systems planning capability within the planning agencies, to avoid the terminal nature of some systems studies.

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WATER RESOURCES PLANNING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES