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Water Security Challenges of Pakistan. Naseer Ahmad Gillani FIE. Climate Change and Flash Floods. Water is biggest security issue. LAND USE IN PAKISTAN. CATEGORY. AREA (MA). GEOGRAPHICAL AREA. 196.7. AREA SUITABLE FOR AGRICULTURE. 74.6. CULTIVATED AREA (IRRIGATED + BARANI). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Naseer Ahmad GillaniNaseer Ahmad GillaniFIEFIE
Climate Change
Water SharingIssues
Increasing Water Deficit
Siltation In
Mega dams
Water Pollution
Glaciers Depletion
Threats
5
ARABIAN SEA
Chenab R
iver
DISPUTED
TERRITORY
INDUS
RIVERKABUL RIVER
Ravi Rive
r
Jhelu
m R
iver
Sutlej River
LEGENDMOUNTAINS
DESERTS
AREA UNDERIRRIGATION
AREA THATCAN BE BROUGHTUNDER IRRIGATION
SOURCE: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS OF PAKISTAN 2007-08
20.1ADDITIONAL AREA THAT CAN BE BROUGHT UNDER IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE
47.0AREA UNDER IRRIGATION(BY ALL SOURCES)
54.5CULTIVATED AREA(IRRIGATED + BARANI)
74.6AREA SUITABLE FOR AGRICULTURE196.7GEOGRAPHICAL AREA
AREA (MA)CATEGORY
Indus
Riv
er
Sindh 3.4 MA
Punjab 3.8 MA
KPK 3.0 MA
Baloch. 9.9 MA
TOTAL 20.1 MA
(Barren land available if water can be conserved)
6
Water Availability (Avg 1976-2009) 138.70 MAF Water Requirement for the Country with reference to Accord 1991
(117 MAF)
ProvinceWater Accord Allocation
Water Availability or used
{Avg (1976 -2009)}Shortage /
Excess
Kharif Rabi Total Kharif Rabi Total Value %age
Punjab 37.07 18.87 55.94 34.16 18.66 52.82 -3.12 -5.6
Sindh 33.94 14.82 48.76 28.95 13.84 42.79 -5.97 -12.2
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
3.48+1.80
5.28
2.30
+ 1.20
3.50
5.78 +3.00 (Civil Canal)
8.78
4.09 2.51
6.60
- 3.00
3.60
-2.18 -24.8
Balochistan 2.85 1.02 3.87 1.23 0.80 2.03 -1.84 -47.5
Total 77.34 37.01 117.35 68.42 35.81 104.23 -13.12 -11.18
Average Water Availability 2000 – 2010 105 MAF(Currently Pakistan is suffering from water shortage cycle)
7
RESERVOIR ORIGINAL PRESENTLOSS DUE TO
SEDIMENTATION
TARBELA9.69
(1976)6.77
2.92 30%
MANGLA5.34
(1968)4.54 0.80
15%
CHASHMA0.72
(1971)0.26 0.46
63%
TOTAL 15.75 11.574.1827%
RESERVOIR CAPACITIES (MAF)
(Nearly a fourth of the Reservoirs silted; need to construct Diamer Basha Dam to augment lost storage)
8
NEW STORAGES CURRENTLY BEING DEVELOPED
UNDER IMPLEMENTATION/READY FOR EXECUTION (MAF)
MANGLA DAM RAISING – AJK (Substantially Completed; to be test filled in 2010)
2.88
SATPARA DAM (Completion in Dec-2010)
0.05
GOMAL ZAM – FATA(Completion in Dec-2010)
0.89
KURRAM TANGI – FATA (To be started 2011) 0.90
DIAMER-BHASHA – GB/KPK(To be started in 2011)
6.40
SMALL/MEDIUM DAMS (Phase-I&II) 4.90
Total: 13.62
Stand aloneIntegratedStatePublicSocietylocal
ConflictDisturbanceLaw & Order Institutional CollapseRevolutionWar
Scarcity Prestige Independence Sovereignty Economics Development Poverty Hunger Survival
SurvivalMDGsPRSPlife
Equity
Sovereignty
sustainability
water for All
97% saline water - 3% fresh water. 2% fresh water caped in glaciers and icebergs. Out of remaining 1%, 20% cannot be captured – inaccessible.
Remaining fresh water globally available is only 0.8% and is finite.
This 0.8% amounts to 43,659 BCM. In case it is uniformly distributed over the globe, it is in abundance.
43,659 BCM ÷ 6.5 billion people = 6,716 m3/person
Problem: Variability in space and time – rain forest on one hand and desert on other.
South East Asia
Total water availability is 6,698
BCM i.e. 15.3% of the world water
resources against 8.6% of world
population (516 million).
Per capita water availability is
12,980 m3.
Regional PerspectiveRegional Perspective
South West Asia
90% of population lives under water stress
conditions – uses 10% more water than fresh
water available. Massive desalinization.
Regional PerspectiveRegional Perspective cont…cont…
North East Asia
Total water availability is 3,351 BCM i.e. 7.7% of
world water against 25% of world population. Per
capita water availability is 2,221 m3. Country
wise water availability, Mongolia 138,400
m3/capita; Japan 3,125 m3/capita; R. Korea 2,389
m3/capita and China 2,152 m3/capita.
Regional PerspectiveRegional Perspective cont…cont…
South Asia
Total water availability 3,900 BCM/year i.e. only 9% of
world water against 25% of world population. Per
capita water availability is 2,600 m3/person. India has
1/6th of world population and 1/25th water resources i.e.
1,746 BCM with average of 1,740 m3/person but the
variability is extensive. In Brahmaputra – Barak Basin
per capita water availability is 13,400 m3 to about only
300 m3 in the Sabarmati Basin in western part of India.
Regional PerspectiveRegional Perspective cont…cont…
Average rainfall
Pakistan is one of the world’s most arid
countries – over 75% of it receives rainfall less
than 250 mm annually and 20% of it less than
125 mm. The population and economy are
heavily dependent on an annual influx into
Indus River System of about 154.88 MAF of
water mostly derived from snow and glacier
melt.
Pakistan PerspectivePakistan Perspective
2222
• Surface Water Surface Water 154.88 MAF154.88 MAF• Ground Water:Ground Water:
– Total AreaTotal Area 39.5 Million 39.5 Million AcresAcres
– SalineSaline 24.7 Million 24.7 Million AcresAcres
– Fresh WaterFresh Water 14.8 Million 14.8 Million AcresAcres
– Total Quantity AvailableTotal Quantity Available 59 MAF59 MAF– Present ExtractionPresent Extraction 50 MAF50 MAF– BalanceBalance 9 MAF 9 MAF
(economic limit)(economic limit)
2323
SEASON-WISE & ANNUAL CANAL SEASON-WISE & ANNUAL CANAL HEAD WITHDRAWALS HEAD WITHDRAWALS 1962-63 TO 2002-031962-63 TO 2002-03
SEASON
PRE-MANGLA(1962-67) AVERAGE
POST-MANGLA(1967-76) AVERAGE
POST TARBELA
(1976-2003)
AVERAGE
ADDITIONAL WATER AFTER
MANGLA & TARBELA
KHARIF 62.38 65.02 67.77 5.39 8.6%
RABI 28.0 30.78 36.80 8.80 31.4%
TOTAL 90.38 95.80 104.57 14.19 15.7%
(MAF)(MAF)
2424
98.6
23
0
22
0
21
0
20
0
19
0
18
0
17
0
16
0
15
0
14
0
13
0
12
0
11
0
10
0
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
01951 1961 1972 1981 1992 2002 2012 2020 2025
PER
CA
PIT
A A
VA
ILA
BIL
ITY
(M
) 3
PO
PU
LA
TIO
N (
MIL
LIO
NS
)
CA
NA
L D
IVER
SIO
NS
(M
AF)
PO
PU
LA
TIO
N (
MIL
LIO
NS
)
YEARS
23
0
22
0
21
0
20
0
19
0
18
0
17
0
16
0
15
0
14
0
13
0
12
0
11
0
10
0
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
AFTERTARBELA
INDEPENDENCE
AFTERMANGLA
104
106
PER
CAPITA
AVAILA
BILITY
1700 m3
1992
1350 m32002
1000 m32012
885 m32020
5650 m3(1951)
WATER SHORT
COUNTRY
216.8
178
138
POPULATIONGROWTH
225
550 m32025
BEFORE TREATY
AFTER TREAT
Y
2525
India 93% Pakistan 90% China 87% Egypt 85% Italy 59% Japan 50%
• KoreaKorea46%46%
• USAUSA42%42%
• GermanyGermany20%20%
• FranceFrance15%15%
• UKUK 3%3%
26
1,300,000 liters/person/year (i.e. 3356 liters/day which is 70 times more
than 50 liter/person/day for domestic purposes)
• Water requirement to produce one loaf - 550 liters (10 times more than 50/liters/person/day)
• Water required to produce 100 grams of beef - 7,000 liters(140 times more than 50/liters/person/day)
2727
Pakistan’s dependence on single river Pakistan’s dependence on single river
system is highly vulnerable and has little system is highly vulnerable and has little
flexibility as compared to most of the flexibility as compared to most of the
countries enjoyed by virtue of multiple river countries enjoyed by virtue of multiple river
basins and diversity of water resources. If basins and diversity of water resources. If
the water/sediment/salt system of the Indus the water/sediment/salt system of the Indus
Basin goes badly wrong, that’s it – and Basin goes badly wrong, that’s it – and
unfortunately we are very close to it.unfortunately we are very close to it.
2828
There is no additional water to be injected
into the system and there is no feasible
intervention which would enable Pakistan
to mobilize appreciable more water that it
now uses. Pakistan uses more than 90% of
water for irrigation. Non-agricultural water
uses are going to increase manifold in
future.
2929
Without Mangla & Chashma
Kharif88%
Rabi12% Rabi Kharif
With Tarbela Dam
Kharif79%
Rabi21% Rabi Kharif
Present Position
Kharif81%
Rabi19% Rabi Kharif
With Mangla & Chashma
Kharif84%
Rabi16% Rabi Kharif
(INCREASE OF 6 MAF)
(DECREASE OF 3 MAF)
(INCREASE OF 13 MAF)
3030
Total brought into the System 33.0 M. Tons Total Salt deposited in Indus
Basin Irrigation System 24.0 M. Tons Wash out of System 9.0 M. Tons Salt deposited in Punjab 13.6 M. Tons Salt deposited in Sindh 10.4 M. Tons
3131
Canada 8.72 kg/ m3
USA 1.56 kg/ m3
China 0.82 kg/ m3
India 0.39 kg/ m3
Pakistan 0.13 kg/ m3
3232
France 7.60 T/ha Egypt 5.99 T/ha Saudi Arabia 5.36 T/ha Punjab (India) 4.80 T/ha Punjab (Pak) 2.30 T/ha Pakistan (Average) 2.24 T/ha
3333
World (Average) 8.60 US$ Developed Countries 30-40
US$ Malaysia 10 US$ Pakistan 0.34 US$
3434
America 6,150 m3/person Australia 5,000 m3/person Pakistan 132 m3/person
3535
Egypt (Aswan) 1,000 days (Niles) America 900 days (Colorado) Australia 600 days South Africa 500 days (Orange
River) India 120 to 220 days Pakistan 30 days
Upto April 2008, 1,017 MAF of water has gone to the sea unutilized over the last 30 years which is equivalent to 10 years of canal withdrawals. In monitory terms, the value of unutilized water is US$ 149 billion after deducting 300 MAF required for environmental purposes.
For better water management, 40% of total water availability is required for storage, Pakistan’s storage capacity is only about 7% of total available water.
Climate Change
Indus Waters Treaty
Transboundary pollution
Pakistan should demand minimum environmental flows for eastern rivers to protect biodiversity.
Kabul River contributes 21 MAF
Pakistan needs both software and hardware solutions for future water management.
Points for Urgent AttentionPoints for Urgent Attention
GOAL 1: Promote water as a key part of sustainable national development.
GOAL 2: Address critical development challenges.
GOAL 3: Reinforce knowledge sharing and communications.
GOAL 4: Build a more effective participation
4242
Total Completed Large Dams 4,291 Nos. Presently under Construction Dams 676 Nos. Total Existing Storage Capacity 323 BCM Additional Storage required by 2050 180 BCM Additional Dams to be constructed
by the year 2050 2,500 Nos. Total Hydro Power Developed 13,000 MW Total Potential Available 84,000 MW
China has constructed 84,000 dams since 1949 out of which 24,000 are large dams.