We will begin momentarily at 2pm ET...2015/06/04 · beauty care. If companies are doing innovation and interested in new tools then bioprinting should very much be on their horizon.”

6/3/2015

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Thursday, June 11, 2015

“Science Communication in the Digital Media Age”

Nathan Allen, Moderator of /r/science, Reddit

Chris McCarthy, Social Media Manager, American Chemical Society


“Advanced Pyrotechnics 2: Ignition, Sensitivity, and

Analysis of Energetic Materials”

Chris Mocella, U.S. Customs and Border Protection Laboratories

Darren Griffin, University of Kent

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“Chemistry & the Economy: 2015 Mid-Year Review”

www.acs.org/acswebinars Recordings will be available to ACS members after one week

Paul Hodges Chairman, International eChem

Mark Jones Executive External Strategy and

Communications Fellow,

Dow Chemical


CREATIVE ENERGY FOR IMPORTANT ISSUES

2015 Mid-Year Review

Today’s Aging Populations - Challenges and Opportunities

4 June 2015

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KEYNOTE SPEECHES

Conferences

PROJECTS

THE pH REPORT

Senior Management

Making It Happen

BLOG & BOOK

WORKSHOPS

Strategy/Planning

PAUL HODGES [email protected] +44 20 7700 6100

www.iec.eu.com

OUR SERVICES


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The global population is ageing: fertility rates have halved since 1950, life expectancy is up by 50%

Household spending drives GDP, and it declines past the age of 50 – 55 years

Central banks have tried to compensate by creating wealth effects via sub-prime and quantitative easing

China’s New Normal policies are now the catalyst for change

Affordability and new technologies will be the winning strategies for the future

http://www.new-normal.com/

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AGENDA

Aging US population creates headwinds for economic growth

Impact on auto markets

New growth opportunities


Lady May Montagu with son, Edward

Variolation vaccination Constantinople, 1718

Dr Edward Jenner with gardener’s son Cowpox vaccination, Gloucestershire

14 May 1796

“60 PEOPLE IN EVERY 100 HAVE THE SMALLPOX. OF THESE 60, 20 DIE OF IT IN THE MOST FAVOURABLE SEASON OF LIFE.”

Voltaire, Letter on Inoculation, 1733

In London during the 1700s, ”In certain districts the infant mortality rate reached 75% of all births whenever epidemics struck” Matthew White, British Library

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ECONOMIC GROWTH TOOK OFF ONCE SMALLPOX VACCINATION WAS INVENTED

Vaccination, disinfection, pharma and now healthy lifestyles have changed our lives


US BABYBOOM OF 1946 – 1964 SAW 9 MILLION EXTRA BABIES BEING BORN, VERSUS THE 25 YEARS 1921 - 1945

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FERTILITY RATES HAVE BEEN BELOW REPLACEMENT LEVEL SINCE 1970, LIFE EXPECTANCY AT AGE 65 IS NOW 20 YEARS

Fertility rates are now just 1.7 babies/woman in the Low Case

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Audience Survey Question

Who spends the most?

• 18-25 year olds • 25-35 year olds • 35-45 year olds • 45-55 year olds • older than 55

ANSWER THE QUESTION ON BLUE SCREEN IN ONE MOMENT

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US HOUSEHOLD SPENDING DATA

CONFIRMS MAJOR DECLINE AFTER AGE 55


SPENDING POWER NOW UNDER PRESSURE AS LABOR PARTICIPATION RATES DECLINE FOR MEN & WOMEN Spending power had increased as women entered the workforce in large numbers

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US HOUSEHOLD SPENDING HIGHLIGHTS IMPACT OF THE AGEING BABYBOOMERS ON DEMAND

Consumer spending is 2/3rds of GDP: Over-55s spend 15% less than under-55s, and their numbers are rising


THE G-20 CONTAINS ‘RICH BUT OLD’ GROUPS IN THE WEST: ‘POOR & YOUNG’ AND ‘POOR & AGEING’ ELSEWHERE

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MOST G-20 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE ‘AGEING & IN DEBT’, OTHERS ARE ‘YOUNG & LOW DEBT’ OR ‘AGEING & LOW DEBT’


AGENDA




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GLOBAL CHEMICAL INDUSTRY OPERATING RATES HAVE FAILED TO RECOVER SINCE 2009


AGEING POPULATIONS DRIVE LESS AS WORK AND FAMILY COMMITMENTS REDUCE

Co-products produced with

each ton of ethylene

USA GERMANY

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In 2014, US drivers averaged the same number of miles travelled by car as in: • 2004 • 1995 • 1990 • 1985 • 1980



US VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED PER ADULT HAVE FALLEN 8% SINCE 2004

Page 30

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US AUTO AND HOUSING MARKETS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF AGE




GLOBAL AUTO SALES WOULD STILL BE

BELOW 2007 LEVELS WITHOUT CHINA The ‘top 7’ are 80% of total world demand

Page 32

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THE COST OF CHINA’S ‘GROWTH AT ALL COSTS’ MODEL HAS BECOME TOO GREAT


“THE CONCEPT OF A “NEW NORMAL” FOR THE WORLD’S SECOND LARGEST ECONOMY IS NOW PREVAILING AT HOME AND ABROAD”


each ton of ethylene PRESIDENT XI JINPING, opening the 3rd Plenum, November 2013 “The good meat is all gone; all that is left are hard bones to chew.” PREMIER LI KEQIANG, in his Work Report to the National People’s Congress, March 2015

“China’s economic growth model remains inefficient; our capacity for innovation is insufficient; overcapacity is a pronounced problem and the foundation of agriculture is weak. Growth in investment is sluggish; the number of new areas of strong consumer activity is limited; there is no sign the international market is about to significantly pick up; maintaining stable growth is becoming more difficult”

Xinhua, September 2014

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CHINA’S AUTO MARKET IS MATURING AND WILL SEE HIGHER GROWTH IN USED CAR SALES




AFFORDABILITY BASED ON INCOME, NOT PROPERTY WEALTH EFFECT, WILL DRIVE FUTURE GROWTH

Average per capita urban incomes in 2013 were Rmb 29547 ($4769):

Every household owns a mobile phone, colour TV and air conditioner

Everyone owns a washing machine and refrigerator

1 in of 5 households own a motor bike and own a car

Almost every household owns a computer and water heater

Average per capita rural incomes were $1276:

Every household has a mobile phone and a colour television

2 out of 3 households now own a washing machine and refrigerator

2 out of 3 households now own a motorbike, whilst bicycle ownership has halved since 1995

But only 1 in 5 own a computer

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AGENDA




38


What new technology areas do you think are most exciting? • virtual reality • wearable computing • internet of things • 3D printing • quantum computing


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BEYOND THE HYPE OF ‘BIG DATA’, NEW BUSINESSES

ARE BEING CREATED TO MEET FUTURE NEEDS


NEW BUSINESS MODELS ARE ENTERING AEROSPACE

INDUSTRY AS ADDITIVE PRINTING ARRIVES “$3.4bn/yr savings in maintenance, repair and operations” PwC

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3D PRINTING MOVES FROM PACKAGING TO SKIN CARE

P&G OFFERS $44M GRANT FOR 3D COSMETICS TESTING “We want to look at the possibilities of bioprinting. It’s definitely a very strong emerging area. We have a number of different in vitro

skin models we’re working on because we are very involved in beauty care. If companies are doing innovation and interested in new tools then bioprinting should very much be on their horizon.”

Prof Elena Lurie-Luke, head of P&G’s Global Life Sciences Open Innovation

US ARMY DEVELOPS NEW SKIN FOR FRONT-LINE BURNS TREATMENT

“The scars that Soldiers develop as a result of burns constrict movement and disfIgure them permanently. The initiative to restore high-quality skin that is elastic and complete with sweat glands, appropriate pigmentation and hair follicles is incredibly important”

Dr Michael Romanco, US Army


Process Intensification reduces plant size and increases flexibility

Manufacturing can take place locally, rather than centrally

Major increases can be achieved in process efficiency

Capex and Opex costs can be dramatically reduced

Quality is improved whilst waste is reduced

Operational simplicity benefits safety

PROCESS INTENSIFICATION OFFERS OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE FROM BATCH TO CONTINUOUS MANUFACTURING

TIME FOR A CHANGE AFTER 500 YEARS

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SAFER, GREENER, FASTER AND CHEAPER

Companies need to reduce manufacturing costs, and increase their flexibility to respond to changing market needs

NiTech’s continuous crystallisers and reactors are designed for this challenge

They are portable, modular and easily scalable

Costs are reduced whilst product quality and safety are improved

Energy usage and waste are also reduced, improving sustainability

They can handle a wide range of chemistries and be used across industry sectors

Several major companies are already using the technology to improve their competitive position in today’s fast-changing markets


D E L I V E R E D C O S T

HIGH

LOW HIGH LOW

AFFORDABILITY, LIFETIME COST,

NOW KEY TO SUCCESS MASS-MARKET

NICHE

THE MIDDLE GROUND IS DISAPPEARING AS THE BOOMER SUPERCYCLE ENDS

P E R V C A E L I U V E E D

MIDDLE GROUND OF ‘AFFORDABLE LUXURY’

DISAPPEARING

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COMPANIES THAT FAIL TO ADAPT WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW NORMAL WILL CREATE WINNERS & LOSERS

Losers in the transition to the New Normal believe:

Stimulus programmes will return markets to the way they used to be.

China’s demand will be the saviour of the global industry

The rise in oil prices meant end-user demand was robust.

Companies now ‘caught in the middle’, neither low-cost or selling a solution, will somehow regain pricing power.

Winners in the transition to the New Normal believe:

The future will be different from the past, with new challenges and opportunities.

Companies need to realign their offerings with key demographic drivers eg the ageing BabyBoomers and greater domestic consumption in emerging economies

Profitable growth will come from providing sustainable solutions that meet real needs (not just “wants”) in these new markets

The megatrends

Food

Water

Health

Shelter

Mobility

CREATIVE ENERGY FOR IMPORTANT ISSUES CREATIVE ENERGY FOR IMPORTANT ISSUES

Disclaimer

Strictly Private & Confidential This Research Note has been prepared by IeC for general circulation at the ACS webinar on 4 June 2015. The information contained in this Research Note may be retained. It has not been prepared for the benefit of any particular company or client and may not be relied upon by any company or client or other third party. IeC do not give investment advice and are not regulated under the UK Financial Services Act. If, notwithstanding the foregoing, this Research Note is relied upon by any person, IeC does not accept, and disclaims, all liability for loss and damage suffered as a result. © International eChem 2015. All rights reserved

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Dow Chemical



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Dow Chemical


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How has ACS Webinars benefited you?

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“ACS Webinars allow me to gain

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good portion of the session is Q&A!”

Patience Wright,

Chemistry Graduate Student,

University of Georgia

6/3/2015

26

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NEW! Free Access to ACS Presentations on Demand® ACS Member only access to over 1,000 presentation recordings from recent ACS meetings and select events.

NEW! ACS Career Navigator Your source for leadership development, professional education, career services, and much more.

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We will begin momentarily at 2pm ET...2015/06/04 · beauty care. If companies are doing innovation and interested in new tools then bioprinting should very much be on their horizon.”