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Weekly Market Update 2-17-16

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ThemarketsexplodedhigheronFridaycourtesyofmajorverbalinterventionsfromECBPresidentMarioDraghiandaGovernmentOfficialontheinnercircleofJapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbe.Theseverbalinterventionshavekickedoffabounceinriskmarkets(moreonthislater)thatIbelievewillendwithinthenextweekorso.ThefirstverbalinterventioncamefromtheECB,whichsuggestedcuttingratesfurtherintoNIRP.

ThereisfirmsupportforadepositratecutwithintheEuropeanCentralBank'sGoverningCouncilbutappetiteformoreradicalactionisstilllimited,conversationswithpolicymakersindicateamonthbeforetheMarchratedecision…

ECBPresidentMarioDraghihassaidthebankwouldreviewandpossiblyrecalibrateitsstanceinMarchtofightpersistentlylowinflation.Marketsnowpriceatleasttworatecuts,takingthedepositrateto-0.55percentbytheendoftheyearfrom-0.3percent.ECBWATCH"DoingnothinginMarchisveryunlikely,"thegovernorofoneoftheeurozone's19centralbankstoldReuters."Monetaryconditionshavetightened,longterminflationexpectationsarefallingandcredibilityisatstake.""Ithinkadepositratecutisfairlyundisputed,"thegovernoradded.http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-idUSKCN0VL1IP

ThesecondandfarmoreimportantverbalinterventioncamefromJapan.However,thistimearoundtheverbaliterventioncameNOTfromBankofJapanheadHaruhikoKuroda,butfromaGovernmentOfficialontheinnercircleofJapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbe.

AcloseadvisertoPrimeMinisterShinzoAbesaidFridaythattheBankofJapanmaycallanemergencymeetingtoundertakeadditionalmonetaryeasingiffinancialmarketsremainturbulent.EtsuroHonda,aformerfinanceministrybureaucrat,saidthegovernmentneedstodelayasales-taxincreasescheduledfornextyearandshouldconsideranadditionalfiscalstimuluspackage.

WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE 2-17-16

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Mr.Honda’sremarks,madeduringaninterviewwithTheWallStreetJournal,underlineaheightenedsenseofurgencyamongJapanesepolicymakersastheyen’sresurgenceandplummetingstocksthreatentofurtherundermineanalreadyfragileeconomy.http://www.wsj.com/articles/boj-could-consider-further-easing-amid-market-turmoil-says-abe-adviser-1455248770

Thisnewsstorytellsusseveralthings:

1) TheAbeGovernmentisawarethemarketsnolongerfindBankofJapanheadHaruhikoKurodacredible.

2) AbeisgrowingincreasinglyconcernedaboutthepoliticalramificationsofAbenomics’failure.

Regarding#1,asInotedlastweek,theBankofJapanisrapidlylosingcredibilitywiththemarkets.TheBankofJapanlaunchedNIRPonFridayJanuary292016.TheNikkeibarelystagedarallyonthenews.ThispromptedBankofJapanheadHaruhikoKurodatosurfaceofMondayFebruary3tostatethatthereis“nolimit”totheamountofeasingtheBankofJapancouldemploy(includingdeepercutstoNIRP).EventhispronouncementfailedtogenerateamarketresponsewithJapanesesharesplummetinganadditional6%.

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ThisiswhyitwassomeonefromAbe’sinnercircle,NOTtheBankofJapan,whoissuedtheverbalinterventiononFriday.ThefactthestatementwasmadeduringaninterviewwiththeWallStreetJournalonlyconfirmsthatthiswasanintendedintervention.Regarding#2,(Abe’sconcernsofpoliticalfalloutfromhisfailedpolicies)bothhousesofJapan’scongress(therearetwohouses,thelowerandtheupperwhichcomprisethecongressorNationalDietasitiscalledinJapan)willbestagingelectionsinthecomingmonths(theloweronApril24th,theuppersometimethissummer).PrimeMinisterShinzoAbewonalandslidein2014basedonhisplatformofgeneratingeconomicgrowthforJapanviabazooka-levelmonetarypolicy.UnderhisguidancetheBankofJapanlaunchingthesinglelargestQEprograminhistoryinApril2013(anamountequaltoover20%ofJapan’sGDP).Japansawabriefuptickineconomicgrowth(aboutsixmonths)beforeJapan’sGDProlledoveragain.TheBankofJapanthenexpandeditsalreadymassiveQEprograminOctober2014.Again,theresultswereshort-lived.

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Meanwhilebothconsumerconfidence…

…andconsumerspendinghavegonenowhereasidefromabriefuptickinearly2014asconsumersrushedtopurchasegoodsbeforeJapanhikedsalestaxesforthefirsttimein17years.

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Insimpleterms,Abenomicshasfailedtogeneratethedesiredeffects=sustainedGDPgrowthandinflation.TheonepositiveofthewholemesswasthatJapanesestockseruptedhigher.However,inrecentmonthsthistrendhasended.

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Asaresultofthis,PrimeMinisterAbeispanickingaboutlosingpoliticalpower.Togiveyouanideaofhowseriousthisis,considerthathehaspersonallyintervenedtogetseveralTVBroadcastersfiredforcriticizinghimonair.

ManyBritishpoliticianswoulddoubtlessrejoiceatthenewsthatAndrewMarr,EmilyMaitlisandAndrewNeilweretoleavetheirjobsalmostsimultaneously.ThatisthefatethathasbefallenwhatcouldlooselybedescribedastheircounterpartsinJapan–IchiroFurutachi,HirokoKuniyaandShigetadaKishii–threerespectedbroadcasterswithareputationforaskingtoughquestions.Theirimminentdeparturefromeveningnewsprogrammesisnotjustalosstotheirprofession;criticssaytheywereforcedoutaspartofacrackdownonmediadissentbyanincreasinglyintolerantprimeminister,ShinzoAbe,andhissupporters…Whiletheanchorsthemselveshaverefusedtocomment,expertssayAbeandhisallieshadmadetheirfeelingsknownaboutthebroadcastersduringsecretivedinnerswithtopmediaexecutives.http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/17/japanese-tv-anchors-lose-their-jobs-amid-claims-of-political-pressure

Sowhat’stocomeofthis?AbewilllikelyfireBankofJapanheadHaruhikoKurodaandpushforanewwaveofQElaterthisyear.AberecentlysawhisfirstuptickinpopularityinmonthswhenhisEconomicMinister(oneofthekeyarchitectsofAbenomics)resignedafteritwasrevealedhehadtakenbribes.NodoubtAbehasseenthepoliticalbenefitsofgettingridofunpopularbureaucrats.Moreover,asI’venotedpreviously,themarketsarenolongerrespondingtoNIRP,theyrequirealarge-scaleQEprograminordertoreact.

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IexpectAbewillaskKurodatostepdownsometimeinthenextsixmonths.He’llreplacehimwithanevenmoreaggressiveKeynesianwhilepromisinganevenlargerQEprogramwiththegoalofhittingtherequiredinflationtargets.Speakingofinflation,theUS’scoreinflationhasbeguntogovertical.

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Infact,ithasbrokenitsdownwardtrendlinefromthe2006high.

ThisrepresentsaHUGEproblemfortheFed.Debtdeflationisonceagainappearingrightascoreinflationbeginstomoveupwards.ThustheFedhasadecisiontomake:

1) Continuetohikeratesandacceleratetheeconomicdownturn/deflation.

2) Stophikingratesandruntheriskoflettingcoreinflationrunwild.PersonallyIthinktheFedwilloptfor#2.Ifitcomesbetweeninflationanddebtdeflation,theFedwillalwaysoptforinflation.Movingontothemarkets.TheS&P500isbouncinghardbasedontheafore-mentionedverbalinterventionsaswellasthefactthatitisoptionsexpirationweek(whenWallStreetgunsmarketshighertoshredasmanyoptionscontractsaspossible).Thekeylinetowatchisbluebelow.Iexpectustoseeamovetothatlevelbeforestocksrolloveragain.

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Thispatternexistsinvirtuallyallstockindexestoday.EmergingMarkets(EEM)

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Brazil(EWZ)

China(FXI)

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However,thiswillnotlastforlong.BarringamassivenewCentralBankintervention(actualQE,notjustverbalinterventions)themarketsareonborrowedtime.Iexpectwe’llseeasharpselloffcomingshortly.Atthatpoint,CentralBankswillbegintobringoutthebigguns.I’vepostedthebelowchartmanytimesbefore,butitisTHEtemplateforwhat’shappeninghere.WhentheTechBubbleburststocksstagedEIGHTmovesof16%+injustsixmonths.WhenbubblesburstyouDOgetsharpralliestotheupside.Andit’salwaysarollercoasterontheridedown.

Weareexperiencingsimilarvolatilitytodayasthestockmarkethastakenoutitslong-termtrendlineandthetrendisnowdown.

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Onafinalnote,Goldhasbrokenoutofthefallingwedgepatternthathastrappeditsince2013.

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Thepreciousmetalisnowoverboughtintheshort-termandneedstoretestformerresistance(theupperblueline).Ifitholdstherethenthenextleguphasbegun.AsSocieteGeneralrecentlypointedout,duringthelastGoldbullmarketinthe1970s,Goldrose550%duringitsfirstlegupfrom1970to1974.Itthencorrected50%beforebeginningitsnextlegup.However,itwastheSECONDmovehigherthanwastheBIGone=a900%increaseinvalue.Usingthisasaproxy,combinedwithmybeliefthatCentralBanksaregoingtobeunleashingtrulyNUCLEARlevelQEprogramsanddeeperNIRPcuts,IexpectGoldtomovetoatleast$5,000perounceifnot$10,000perounceduringitsnextlegup.A900%increasefromcurrentlevelswouldputusat$10,800perounce.Getready:thetimetobuyGoldwithbothhandsisfastapproaching.BothGoldminersandGoldMiningJuniorsareshowingsimilarbreakoutstotheupside.

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Thisconcludesthisweek’sissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.Bythelookofthings,weareinadeadcatbouncefromthesharpselloffthanbegantheyear.IexpectthisbouncetolastperhapsaweekmorebeforewemovedownHARD.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopments,you’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourregularweeklymarketupdate.UntilThen…

EditorPrivateWealthAdvisory

BestRegards,

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OPEN POSITIONS

Pricesasof2/17/16afterthemarket’sclose.Pricesincludedividends

US DOLLAR CARRY TRADE IMPLOSION PORTFOLIO

RELATIVE US STRENGTH PORTFOLIO

SYSTEMIC RISK/ BLACK SWAN PORTFOLIO

*Avg.priceof$20.78and$14.20

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

UltraBullishDollarETF UUP 5/23/11 $21.79 $25.1315%

UltraShortEuro EUO 4/10/15 $27.68 $24.28 -12% UltraShortYenETF YCS 5/27/15 $94.48 $78.38 -17%

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

NuveenMuni.Fund NIO 1/2/14 $13.12 $14.57 25% Wal-Mart WMT 7/30/14 $74.78 $66.11 -8% Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 $82.00 -11% 7-10YrTreasuryETF UST 11/26/14 $55.54 $60.64 11%

20+YrTreasuryETF TLT 7/15/15 $116.89 $129.31 12% RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $9.78 -37% Apple AAPL 9/11/15 $114.21 $98.12 -14%

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Gold 3/17/10

$1,120$1,210.00

8%

Silver 3/17/10

$17.50$15.33 -12%

GoldMinersETF* GDX 5/13/15 $20.78 $17.82 2% GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 1/27/16 $19.12 $23.76

24%

18

Pricesasof2/17/16afterthemarket’sclose.Pricesincludedividends

TECH BUBBLE 2.0 PORTFOLIO

MARKET HEDGE PORTFOLIO

EU MELTDOWN PORTFOLIO

*Avg.priceof$385.37and$583

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Amazon(SHORT)* AMZN 2/25/15 $385.37 $534.10 -10%

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

UltraShortNikkeiETF EWV 1/6/15 $67.46 $58.61 -13%UltraShortEmergingMarketETF EEV 1/20/16 $31.27 $25.43 -19%UltraShortChinaETF FXP 1/20/16 $59.95 $52.35 -13%UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 1/20/16 $110.71 $77.30 -30%UltraShortFinancials SKF 2/10/16 $60.95 $56.04 -8% UltraShortRussell2000ETF TWM 2/10/16 $52.94 $48.03 -9%

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

SpainETF(SHORT) EWP 1/22/16 $25.89 $25.64 1%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB

2/3/16$16.65

$17.94-8%

Santander(SHORT) SAN 2/3/16 $3.86 $4.17 -8%

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POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Apple AAPL 4/2/14 $77.51 9/29/14 $98.84 28%

EuropeanFinancials(SHORT) EUFN 4/15/14 $24.89 10/10/14 $22.47 11%

UltraShortRussell2000 TWM 4/15/14 $49.46 10/10/14 $52.28 6%

UltraShortBrazil BZQ 10/15/14 $62.00 10/21/14 $71.92 16%

UltraShortGold GLL 10/24/14 $94.15 11/14/14 $104.21 11%

UltraShortSilver ZSL 10/24/14 $104.89 11/14/14 $122.00 17%

EnduroRoyaltyTrust NDRO 5/22/13 12.05 11/28/14 $7.06 -26%

UltraShortEuro EOU 1/20/15 $23.49 3/5/15 $26.51 13%

UltraShortBrazil BZQ 1/6/15 $91.07 3/6/15 $100.74 11%

Target TGT 5/28/14 $55.34 4/1/15 $82.13 52%

Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.26 4/1/15 $34.56 20%

GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14 $24.57 4/13/15 $27.89 18%

BPPrudhoeBayRoyaltyTrust BPT 1/2/14

$76.775/20/15 $66.70 5%

ConocoPhillips COP 3/5/14$66.30

5/20/15 $65.27 4%

RussiaETF TRF4/9/15 $10.62 5/20/15 $11.36

7%

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS

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POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

UtraShortOilETF SCO 5/27/15 $61.08 7/6/15 $70.30 15%

UltraShortGoldETF GLL 2/25/15 $95.49 7/7/15 $101.75 7%

Copper(SHORT) JJC 3/10/15 $31.35 7/7/15 $28.78 8%

UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 5/27/15 $85.70 7/7/15 $92.02 7%

IndustrialMetalsETF UBM 3/25/15 $15.24 7/7/15 $13.56 11% UltraShortChinaETF(half) FXP 3/10/15 $36.45 7/8/15 $41.93 15%

UltraShortOilETF(half)SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/23/15 $82.14 8%

UltraShortBrazilETF(half)

BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/23/15 $102.36 12% UltraShortBrazilETF(secondhalf)

BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/24/15 $109.60 20% UltraShortOilETF(secondhalf)

SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/27/15 $87.36 15%

LinkedIn(SHORT)LNKD 6/17/15 $215.45 8/4/15 $194.96 10%

AustraliaETF(SHORT)EWA 1/6/15 $21.97 8/11/15 $19.85 11%

UltraShortEmergingMktsETF

EEV 1/20/15 $19.48 8/11/15 $21.56 11%

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

UltraShortChinaETF FXP 3/10/15 $36.458/19/15 $41.59 14%

ChinaRealEstateETF(SHORT) TAO 6/11/13 $20.11 8/24/15 $17.21 14% SouthKoreaETF(SHORT) EWY 8/18/15 $48.17

8/24/15 $43.82 10%

IndiaETF(SHORT) INP 8/18/15 $70.188/24/15 $59.38 18%

Santander(SHORT) SAN 8/13/15 $6.638/24/15 $5.99 10%

SpainETF(SHORT) EWP 8/13/15 $34.088/24/15 $31.38 8%

AustralianDollarETF(SHORT)

FXA 5/27/15 $77.368/26/15 $70.99 8%

UltraShortSilverETFZSL 7/29/15 $120.84

8/26/15 $132.02 9%

UltraLongS&P500 SSO 9/2/15 $56.129/9/15 $59.37 6%

UltraLongRussell200 UWM 9/2/15$79.20 9/9/15 $83.75 6%

CanadaDollarETF(SHORT)

FXC 5/27/15 $79.819/23/15 $74.47 7%

Canon(SHORT) CAJ 7/31/13 $30.849/23/15 $29.12 6%

UltraShortSemiconductorsETF

SSG9/18/15

$54.00 9/24/15 $60.2011%

UltraShortBrazilETFBZQ 9/22/15 $172.16

9/24/15 $199.00 16%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB

10/28/15$30.31 11/12/15 $26.17 14%

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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Santander(SHORT)SAN

10/28/15$5.70 11/27/15 $5.36 6%

UltraShortGoldETFGLL 7/29/15 $112.00

11/27/15 $117.38 5%

UltraShortOilETF SCO 11/12/15 $95.3512/2/15 $108.18

13%

UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 11/12/15 $66.3212/2/15 $72.46

9%

BancoDeChile(Short)

BCH 8/18/15 $61.8912/8/15 $57.68 7%

RussiaETF(SHORT)RSX 12/2/15 $16.35

12/8/15 $15.32 6% UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF EEV 11/12/15 $22.14

12/8/15 $23.767%

SpainETF(SHORT)EWP

9/30/15$29.66 1/14/16 $27.64 7%

UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF

EEV12/17/15

$23.84 1/14/16 $25.316%

SingaporeETF(SHORT)EWS 9/22/15 $10.31

1/7/16 $9.57 7%

MexicoETF(SHORT) EWW 12/23/15 $51.151/7/16 $46.66 9%

FranceETF(SHORT)EWQ

9/30/15$24.07 1/11/16 $22.64 6%

Nvidia NVDA 6/26/13$14.14

1/13/16 $30.04119%

Auto-Zone AZO 9/25/13$422.73

1/13/16 $716.2169%

Intel INTC 12/20/13$25.14

1/13/16 $32.4036%

Target TGT 5/28/14$55.34

1/13/16 $72.6838%

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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Tesla(SHORT) TSLA 2/25/15 $203.761/14/16 $196.41 4%

UltraShortFinancialsSKF

9/18/15$52.39 1/14/16 $55.20

5%

EuropeanFinancials(SHORT)

EUFN1/6/16

$19.36 1/15/16 $18.02 7% UltraShortS&P500 SDS 9/18/15 $22.33

1/15/16$23.58 6%

MalaysiaETF(SHORT)EWM 9/22/15 $7.50

1/15/16 $7.16 5%

Kraft KHC 9/24/14 $56.811/15/16 $68.79

27%

McDonalds MCD 10/30/14 $92.871/15/16 $115.25

29%

Santander(SHORT)SAN

1/6/16$4.52 1/19/16 $4.19 7%

RetailETF(SHORT)XRT

1/13/16 $40.66 1/20/16 $38.01 7%

Coke KO 8/28/13$36.80

1/22/16 $41.8121%

GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14$24.57

1/22/16 $27.9120%

EliLilly LLY 12/3/14 $71.131/22/16 $83.09

20%

UniversalCorporation UVV3/5/15

$48.051/22/16 $52.23

12%

Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.262/1/16 $30.16

8%

Microsoft MSFT 12/3/14 $48.082/1/16 $54.70

16%

24

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Netflix(SHORT) NFLX 1/27/16 $91.152/8/16 $81.55 11%

ItalyETF(SHORT)(half)

EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/9/16

$10.88 10% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(half) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37

2/9/16$9.09 12%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)(half) DB 2/3/16 $16.65

2/9/16$14.95 10%

ItalyETF(SHORT)(otherhalf)

EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/11/16

$10.71 11% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(otherhalf) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37

2/11/16$8.64 17%