Weekly Wrap - 14 December 2013

8/13/2019 Weekly Wrap - 14 December 2013

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ON TODAYS SHOW

AROUND THE GROUNDS OVERNIGHT, THIS WEEK WRAP OF THE WEEK IN MARKETSWHO WON, WHO LOST AND WHO LOOKED STUPID

WHAT GAME IS GLENN STEVENS PLAYING WITH THE AUSSIE DOLLAR

A TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE S&P 500, THE USD DOLLAR, THE NIKKEI, YEN AND THE AUSSIE AN

EXPECTATIONS RISING OF LOWER CHINESE GROWTH

GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOW UPDATE

A QUICK TOUR OF ASIAN DATA THIS WEEK

KEY EVENTS IN THE WEEK AHEAD


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AROUND THE GROUNDS - STOCKS

Stocks Weekly Change This Week Last Week

Dow -1.65% 15,755 16,020

S&P -1.66% 1,775 1,805

FTSE -1.71% 6,440 6,552

Nikkei 0.67% 15,403 15,300

Shanghai -1.83% 2,196 2,237ASX 200 -1.70% 5,098 5,186


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AROUND THE GROUNDSGLOBAL F

Global FX Weekly Change This Week Last Week

EURUSD 0.26% 1.3730 1.3694

USDJPY 0.32% 103.20 102.87

GBPUSD -0.29% 1.6294 1.6342

AUDUSD-1.46% 0.8962 0.9095

USD Index -0.12% 80.22 80.32


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AROUND THE GROUNDS - COMMODITIE

Commodities Weekly Change This Week Last Week

Gold 0.90% $ 1,236.00 $ 1,225.00

Nymex Crude -1.15% $ 96.54 $ 97.66

Copper 2.76% $ 3.35 $ 3.26

Bitcoin 4.35% $ 887.00 $ 850.00

10 year treasuries -0.35% 2.87% 2.88%


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THIS WEEKSANTA RALLY, SANTA RALLY, WHERE FOR ART THOU?


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WINNERS

The Australian economyRBA Governor slammed the Aussie and

growth bulls but what game is he playing

US Economysigns of self sustaining momentum growing

Japanese EconomyUSDJPY at 5 year high

UK EconomyBoE signals low rates till 2015

Global EconomyChina is going to print 8%ish this year


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LOSERS

StocksDectpaer 60:40 according to Donald Kohn

Bondshow will the Fed Taper and keep 10s below 3%

Aussie Dollar bullsouch

Eurozone Economy1.37/38 against the USD, EURJPY at 5 year high REALLY? #kiddingm

Kim Jong Unsuncle


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STUPID OR DANGEROUS

KIM JONG UNTHIS DUDE IS SCARY

UNHINGED


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WHAT IS GLENN STEVENSUP TO WITH THE AUSSIEDOLLARDANGER WILL ROBINSON


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RBA GOVERNOR ATTACKS THE AUD

To the extent that we get some more easing in financial conditions, at this point its pro

more preferable for that to be via a lower currency at the margin than lower interest rat

I thought [US]85 would be closer to the mark than [US]95 . ..but really, I dont think we

that precise,

I just think that if things over the medium term evolve as were presently assuming a

its reasonable to make these assumptions its going to be surprising if a nine at the fright number.


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AHH IF ONLY THE AUSSIE WOULD CRAS

MY view is Steveabout an Aussieand wants it as lbefore hand


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AUSSIE DOLLAR

UnpreceaggressGoverno


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ASX 200TARGET ACHIEVED


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AUSTRALIA SEE OUTFLOWS AS WEL

Helps explain recent pressure on the Aussie dollar


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A MESSAGE FOR GLENN

Be careful what you wish for


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TECHNICAL OUTLOOK


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USD INDEXStill struggling


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EUROPULLBACK TIME


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S&PIm still short

S&P sbreakdailie

Targe


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NIKKEI AND YEN

5 year high for USDJPY 103.91 satisfies 104 target.


22/32

GOLDWedging for a break out?

Long a$1174


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OF COURSE IT WILL BUT TAKE A BREATH PEOPLEYOU CANT GROW AT 10% FOREVER

CHINA TO SLOW?


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WHERE ARE WE

CHINA HAS GROWN STRONGLY SINCE ENTERING THE WTO IN 2001

THE CENTRAL ECONOMIC WORK CONFERENCE CONCLUDED IN CHINA YESTERDAY

THIS IS WIDELY EXPECTED TO TO LEAD TO LOWER GROWTH TARGETS FOR 2014

MARKETS ARE A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A SLOWING IN CHINESE GROWTH

BUT WITH THE US DOING OK THIS IS THE PERFECT TIME TO SLOW AND CHINESE SIZE HAS A N

CONSTRAINT

7% IS LIKELY BUT THIS IS STILL MASSIVE GROWTH


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LETS TALK ABOUT GROWTH OVER THE LONG TER

$100,000,000.00

$200,000,000.00

$300,000,000.00

$400,000,000.00

$500,000,000.00

$600,000,000.00

$700,000,000.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 8 19 20

10% compound growth per annum

0.00

20,000,000,000.00

40,000,000,000.00

60,000,000,000.00

80,000,000,000.00

100,000,000,000.00

120,000,000,000.00

140,000,000,000.00

160,000,000,000.00

180,000,000,000.00

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67

Growth at 10% per annum compounding

The left hand chart is 10% for 20 years and the right hand chart is over a lifetime. One is achieveable the other probably more difficult


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CHINESE GROWTH

Notice how Chinese growth is likehand chart on slide before

But that type of growth becomes l

achievable as an economy develo

And dont forget the nominal impa

Tln is a lot more than 10% on 1 Tln

Take a breath and do the math


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FROM THE ANZ

Although China will maintain prudent monetary policy next year, we believe that China

policy implementation should be more flexible and forward looking, especially amid th

accelerating interest rate liberalization process.


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GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWSINTERESTING TRENDS


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THE IMPACT OF G3 PICKUP

Not hard to see the impact of QE +

growth on developed market equ

What impact will the taper have?


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ASIA CONTINUES TO SEE OUTFLOWS

Equity outflows of USD 1.2 bln in week ending December 11 Bond outflows USD 0.6 bln


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A QUICK TOUR AROUND ASIA

Chinese retail sales strong up 13.7% yoy

Chinese IP up 10% yoy

Chinese CPI just 3% yoy

Bank of Korea left rates at 2.5%

Kim Jong Un executed his unclethe 2ndmost powerful man in nthkorea!

Taiwanese exports disappointing with no growth yoy


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WEEK AHEADTO TAPER OR NOT

Its all about the FOMC this week, the Taper and what they say. The communication is morethan their act in almost every way

Tankan is out in Japan on Monday along with the HSBC Chinese PMI and the preliminary M

for the globeso no bludging Monday for traders.

Australia gets new motor vehicles, RBA minutes and a speech from Assistant Governor Deweek.

German ZEW and Ifo are the big ones for Europe while UK retail sales will also be of intere In the US jobless claims, home sales and Philly Fed are out on Friday with CPI earlier in the

these hardly matter due to FOMC.

Documents

Weekly Wrap - 14 December 2013