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Welcome! May 16, 2011

Welcome! May 16, 2011. General Update Investment Competition How to pitch a stock Stock Pitch

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  • Slide 1
  • Welcome! May 16, 2011
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  • General Update Investment Competition How to pitch a stock Stock Pitch
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  • Officers announced next week Investment comp. prizes next week
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  • http://simulator.investopedia.com/Ranki ng/ http://simulator.investopedia.com/Ranki ng/
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  • Opportunity to show your knowledge and passion for the markets
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  • Content 30% Presentation 30 % Q and A 40 %
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  • StructureContentTime Tell them what you want to tell them Your recommendation based on 3 bullet points 15 seconds Company SnapshotBrief description of the company 15 seconds Tell them what you have to say Explain those 3 bullets in detail, including valuation 120 seconds Tell them what you told them Provide a catalyst and repeat your 3 bullet points 30 seconds
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  • Line ItemsAmount in ThousandsMargin Revenue775,443 Cost of Goods Sold364,687 Gross Income410,75653.0% SG&A374,007 Operating Income36,7494.7% Tax8,355 Net Income28,3843.7% EarningsMultiplePriceStockX=
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  • Great company with a cheap valuation First two bullet points convey how great company is Last convey how cheap the valuation is
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  • Purpose Framework of what to say Build expectation Example Buy recommend on Avid Technology (AVID), target price of $47.00, which is a 29% upside from yesterdays close. My recommendation is based on 3 reasons: (a) strong growth from new products (b) opportunity for margin expansion from changes in sales mix and (c) attractive valuation
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  • Purpose Helps place judge mentally with your stock Ex. Avid Technology develops, market, sells & supports a wide range of software and hardware for digital media production, management and distribution. For example, one would use avid software to superimpose 2 photos. Avid had last fiscal revenue of 775 million, market cap 1.8 billion, 3 month avg. vol. 650 thousand, and 12 month P/E of 15.6x
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  • Purpose Provide evidence on how revenue would grow Example AVID will continue to post strong revenue growth drive by Broadcasters conversion from tape to digital Move to HD format. Only 500-600 of the top 2,500 broadcasters have transitioned from tape-based solutions 3 billion market opportunity. 80% of Avids 60,000 video customers are yet to upgrade to HD capabilities Average price of $35,000 for a HD system $1.7 billion in potential sales.
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  • Purpose Provide evidence on how margin could improve Example Current operating margin at 4.7% Sales mix 50/50 between software/hardware Increasing software in mix for last 2 years Can increase to as high as 70% Increase margin to 10% Software margins better than hardware
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  • Purpose Explain why the stock is undervalued Example Company missed expectations by a penny and stock went down 25% Overreaction Historical P/E of 23.5x Peer group P/E of 20x 20x 2007 EPS of $2.34 = stock price of $47.00
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  • Purpose Reiterate your investment thesis Provide a catalyst Example Strong revenue growth prospects from tape -> digital Opportunity for margin expansion -> sales mix Compelling valuation for gain of 29% Launch of new product DigitalPro next month will be catalyst
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  • Most questions will be based on what is actually said Some questions will be based on what you deliberately did not say
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  • How much time did it take for 500 broadcasters to transition from tape- based solutions? What would make those 80% HD customers to upgrade How did you determine the $35,000 price?
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  • What are some risk factors? What is the downside if those risks happen? Why did the stock move way it did? What is the street missing?
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  • Neoprobe
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  • Buy recommend on Neoprobe Target price of $6.50, 35% upside Recommendation based on 3 reasons: Presentation of Phase III Lymphoseek Data NDA submission 3Q 2011 Attractive valuation
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  • Based out of Dublin, Ohio Market leader in gamma detection devices (generating revenue) On its way to be a leader in Oncology
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  • http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona& article=47513888 http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona& article=47513888 The results from NEO3-09 are important not only in that they demonstrate that Lymphoseek is safe and well-tolerated but in many ways that it is a clinically superior lymphatic mapping agent to vital blue dye
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  • What are your questions?
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