Welcome! []...to 23rd May 2016. Arrivals on the book to selected destinations between 23rd May and 31st August as of 22nd May 2017 vs. 25th May to 1st September as of 23rd May 2016

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Forward London

May 2017Each participant will receive a brief presentation deck at the end of the webinar

w w w . f o r w a r d k e y s . c o m

WebinarForward London

May 2017

“Know tomorrow’s travellers”

Topics of the Webinar

#1 Aftermath of the Westminster terror attack

#2 Seasonality comparative analysis

#3 Forward looking summer season

#4 Impact of tourism sales on London trade

Meet the speakersw w w . f o r w a r d k e y s . c o m

Luis MillanSenior AnalystPresenter

Kyle MongHead of Insight at

New West End CompanyGuest Speaker

Laura RodríguezLead AnalystModerator

© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.5/26

Forward London






Rising concerns over security in Western and Northern Europe

#1. Westminster attack

22nd

March

Westminster terror attack

23rdMarch

China issues safety warning against the UK (until 22nd April)

20th

April

Shootings at Champs Elysees

Paris7th

April

Stockholm truck attack

1st

May

The U.S. issues a Travel Alert for Europe

during summer (until 1st September)

22ndMay

Manchester Arena

bombing 23rdMay

UK's threat level raised to "critical"

24thMay

Travel warnings for travelling to

the UK: Australia, Hong Kong

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13769

















NAMEEUR

Arrivals in Easter: 6th to 19th April 2017 vs. 17th to 30th March 2016.Booking dates: 8th March to 5th April 2017 vs. 17th February to 16th March 2016

Length of stay between 2 and 21 nights. Excluded one-way trips.Geographic distribution according to UNWTO.

Easter results not impacted by the terror attack

LON

2 weeks before

+4% -13%

2 weeks after

North America

Arrivals in Easter(Compared to equivalent Easter period in 2016)

Total Int’l+25%

From North America

+29%

From Europe+26%

Average lead time: 81 days

Average leadtime: 87 days

Bookings for travelling during the Easter holidays from…


Europe

2 weeks before

+3% -20%

2 weeks after

Share of late bookers:(Lead time <30 days)

17%20%


China Travel warning against the UK(From 23rd March to 22nd April)

Bookings for travelling in London in any given date issued between 23rd February and 2nd May 2017 vs. 25th February to 4th May 2016.

Length of stay between 2 and 21 nights. Excluded one-way trips.Geographic distribution according to UNWTO.

Growth in Chinese bookings slowed down during the travel warning

North & South East Asian bookings for travelling to London

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

North & SouthEast Asia

China

Total North East Asia +10%China +23%


Total North East Asia +28% China +56%

23 Feb 2 Mar 9 Mar 16 Mar 23 Mar 30 Apr 6 Apr 13 Apr 20 Apr 27 Apr

After Westminsterattack

Before Westminsterattack

LON

NEASSEAS


Length of stay between 2 and 21 nights. Excluded one-way trips.

Long haul: Only non-European countries. Geographic distribution according to UNWTO.

Arrivals to selected destinations between 1st January and 22nd May 2017 vs. 3rd January to 23rd May 2016. Arrivals on the book to selected destinations between 23rd May and 31st August as of 22nd May 2017 vs. 25th May to 1st September as of 23rd May 2016.

Inbound tourism could still be promising


*as of 22nd May

Manchester London United Kingdom

Arrivals (Year-to-22nd May) +5.1% +9.2% +8.0%

Arrivals on the book* (23rd May to 31st August) +8.9% +16.0% +15.0%


Forward London#1 Aftermath of the Westminster terror attack

• Westminster attack had minor impact on bookings, without damaging the optimistic Easter results

• Chinese Safety Warning had a limited impact for group bookings

• Inbound tourism to the UK promising



Forward London






0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Total long haul

2015

2016

2017 YTD

Late summer peak coming from GCC countries and APAC

Arrivals in London between 2nd January 2015 to 27th April 2017 (Fri to Thu weekly arrivals)

Excluded: Domestic flights, one-way tickets and transits.Only pax staying 2 to 21 nights at destination.

#2. SeasonalityAnalysis

1Q: +17% 2Q: +28% 3Q: +33% 4Q: +22%

6 weeks: 17%

Mid June to mid July

September

Average length of stay: 8 days, in a 12-day tripAverage number of pax per booking: 3

North AmericaGCC countries

Oceania

Christmas

CanadaUAE, KuwaitHK, Singapore, Malaysia


0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

5%

5%


North America

2015

2016

2017 YTD

44% 60%

11%

North America: different targets in the 3 key moments

#2. Seasonality analysis



Spring / Easter holidays

Fall periodEarly June to

late July

43%of long haul

arrivals


Solotravellers

Family-size groups (2-4 pax)

Large groups (10+ pax)

1Q: +18% 2Q: +30% 3Q: +30% 4Q: +22%


GCC counties: Most travellers are arriving in one month from now


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%


Gulf Cooperation Council countries

2015

2016

2017 YTD



Summer holiday

Mid-term holidays

New Year

32%


8%of long haul

arrivals

1Q: +20% 2Q: +19% 3Q: +39% 4Q: +22%


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%


North East Asia

2015

2016

2017 YTD

North East Asia: China shapes the seasonality




Chinese New Year

Summer holidays

Mid-Autumn Festival China’s National Day Golden Week

23% in 6 weeks


14%of long haul

arrivals

1Q: +16% 2Q: +24% 3Q: +40% 4Q: +21%


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%


South Asia

2015

2016

2017 YTD40% in 12 weeks

South Asia: Indian summer comes first




Late April to late June


8%of long haul

arrivals

Autumn holidays

1Q: +13% 2Q: +39% 3Q: +29% 4Q: +20%


Forward London#2 Seasonality comparative analysis

• North America: 3 key periods with different traveller profiles, groups in Spring, families in Summer, solo travelers in Fall.

• GCC countries arrivals are heavily concentrated during the Summer holidays, starting from end of Ramadan until the Feast of Sacrifice.

• North East Asia: Predictable pattern, concentrated in July due to Chinese groups.

Chinese New Year#2. Seasonality

Analysis


Forward London





© ForwardDataSL,2017.AllRightsReserved.2

Inbound London: growth in arrivals with Americas and Asia Pacific contributing the most.

#1.TravelHistoryInboundLondon

Totalint’larrivalsinLondonJanuary1st toJune30th 2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.

Onlypaxstaying2to21nightsinLondon.

TotalLong-haulInt’lArrivalsinLondon

TheAmericas(Shares;%YoYVar)

(52%;+19%)

Africa(Shares;%YoYVar)

(6%;+2%)

AsiaPacific(Shares;%YoYVar)

(34%;+14%)MiddleEast(Shares;%YoYVar)

(8%;+12%)

LON

January1sttoJune30th2017

(100%;+16%)(Shares;%YoYVar)


Inbound London: rapid growth started after the exchange rate decreased to its lowest level in 5 years.

#1.TravelHistoryInboundLondon

Totalint’llong-haularrivalsorbookingsfromJanuary1st 2016toJune30th2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.


23rd Jun:Brexitvote

13th Jul:TheresaMay

asthenewPM

8th Jun:UKGeneralelection

29th Mar:Two-year

negotiationsbegan

2016H1 2017H1what’snext?

2016H2

Mid-Oct:GBPexchangerate“flashcrash”

-18.6%

1.281.481.47 1.22

+4.9%+0.1%

-2.8%

Int’llong-haularrivalsinLondon

-4.5% +4.9%

Int’llong-haulbookingstoLondon

+17.0%

-2.0% +14.0%

BrusselAirportattackon22nd Mar

Trumpwonon8th Nov

June23rd October16th June30th


Inbound London: currently robust outlook thanks to the Americas and Asia Pacific

#1.ForwardlookinginboundLondon

Totalint’larrivalsinLondonJuly1st toOctober31st 2017withissuedbookingsasofJuly1st 2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.

Onlypaxstaying2to21nightsandmoreinLondon.

TotalLong-haulInt’lArrivalsinLondon

Onthebook

TheAmericas(Shares;%YoYVar)

(50%;+21%)

Africa(Shares;%YoYVar)

(5%;+15%)

AsiaPacific(Shares;%YoYVar)

(39%;+14%)MiddleEast(Shares;%YoYVar)

(6%;-20%)

LON

July1sttoOctober31st2017



+26% +22%

+18% +14%

+13% +12%

+10% +10%

+8% +6%

+16%

4% 4% 3% 12% 9% 5% 7% 3% 3% 2% 49%

Madrid

Amsterdam

Milan

London

Paris

Barcelona

Rome

Istanbul

Frankfurt

Munich

Others

%Var.of long-haularrivalsonthebook

%ShareinEurope

London enjoys the biggest share in Europe and a good growing outlook

#2.ForwardlookingInboundLondon

TotalInt’llong-haultoEuropeontheBook


Europe

Totalint’llong-haularrivalsinthedestinationsJuly1sttoOctober31st 2017withissuedbookingsasofJuly1st 2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.

Onlypaxstaying2to21nightsindestinations.


-23% -20%

+0.3% -15%

-34% -52%

SaudiArabiaUAE

KuwaitEgypt

BahrainQatar

%Var.of arrivalsonthebook

+67% +48% +43%

+35% +29%

+24% +18%

+13% +13% +12% +11% +9% +9%

0.5% 3% 1% 8% 2%

34% 2% 4% 2% 5%

11% 1% 1%

ChileBrazil

TaiwanChina

SouthAfricaU.S.A.MexicoIndia

ArgentinaHongKongAustraliaNigeria

Thailand

%Var.of arrivalsonthebook%Share

Top origin countries and oil giant’s performance

#2.ForwardlookingInboundLondon


Onlypaxstaying2to21nightsinLondon

LONTop10MostGrowingOriginCountries*

*Top10afterexcludingBrazil,China,andIndiainthisslide.NextslideaboutBRIC

MiddleEastCountriesonthebook


2017 End of Ramadan GCC departure pattern is very different from 2016

#3. Forward lookingoutbound GCC

Total int’l arrivals in the destinations May 17th to July 31st 2017 with issued bookings as of May 7th 2017 vs. same period previous year.

Only pax staying 2 to 21 nights in London.

Mark a period ±10 days from the date of Ramadan end

17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul

Daily

GCC

dep

artu

res (

on th

e bo

ok)

2016 final departures 2016 forward looking 2017 forward looking

？？2017 End of Ramadan:

June 24th 2016 End of Ramadan:July 6th


LengthofstayinLON 8nights 9nights 9nights 10nights

Lengthoftrip 15days 11days 20days 12days

Paxperbooking 3persons 7persons 3persons 4persons

+39% +22% +19% +15%

+48% +46% +13% +35%

Europe

London

BRIC travellers love London

#2.ForwardlookingBRICtoLondon




BusiestterminalinLHR T5 T5 T4 T4

Busiestarrivalhoursduringaday

inLHR

6-8am(17%)1-4pm(40%)

7-8am(13%)9-10am(13%)12-1pm(19%)6-7pm(15%)

6-8am(24%)5-8pm(31%)

4-7pm(38%)8-9pm(12%)

DirectFlights

Transitonceormoretime

BRIC travel pattern till terminal on the book

#2.ForwardlookingBRICtoLondon



25% 74% 42% 55%

75% 26% 38% 45%


Forward London#3 Forward looking summer season (17th May to 31st August)

• Busy summer ahead for London (+20% long-haul on the book).

• GCC performance is weak, but Saudi travellers may still book for the summer period thanks to the pay cut reverse.

• BRIC countries show great interest in London (+50% for B,R,C, +14% for I).

#3. Forward lookingInbound London


Forward London






2016 spend profileInternational v European v domestic mix

27Source: Premier Tax Free, Tax Free Data

£

#4. Impact of tourism sales on London trade

Average Transaction

Values

Domestic£220

European£300

Chinaup to £1,780

Middle East up to £2,632


28

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Dec-

10Fe

b-11

Apr-

11Ju

n-11

Aug-

11O

ct-1

1De

c-11

Feb-

12Ap

r-12

Jun-

12Au

g-12

Oct

-12

Dec-

12Fe

b-13

Apr-

13Ju

n-13

Aug-

13O

ct-1

3De

c-13

Feb-

14Ap

r-14

Jun-

14Au

g-14

Oct

-14

Dec-

14Fe

b-15

Apr-

15Ju

n-15

Aug-

15O

ct-1

5De

c-15

Feb-

16Ap

r-16

Jun-

16Au

g-16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16Fe

b-17

Apr-

17

Yr/Y

r cha

nge

rolli

ng 1

2 m

onth

ave

EUR/

GBP

Sales Var - 12 Month rolling average EUR/GBP

Source: Oanda average currency rates, New West End Sales tracker

Brexit

Currency EffectsWest end sales performance tracks closely to fluctuation in sterlingOverall West End sales have been on positive trajectory since Brexit



29

Sales var top nationalitiesChina, USA & Middle East

All data from Global Blue, a tax free company


-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

Nov Dec Jan Feb March April

China United States Kuwait UAE Saudi Arabia TOTAL

Av. Sale £1,103Av. Sale £1,077Av. Sale £1,139Av. Sale £1,029Av. Sale £1,043Av. Sale £1,029


30

Sales by regionGrowth over last 6 months has been strong across the West End

All data from Global Blue, a tax free company

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

November December January February March April

Regent Street Bond Street Oxford Street Total West End



MARKET

TotalInternational

PERIOD

Arrivals:January1st 2016toJune30th2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.

ArrivalsOnTheBook:July1st toOctober31st 2017vs.2016withbookingsasofJuly1st 2017.

Lengthofstayofarrivals:from2to21nights.

©ForwardDataSL,2017.Allrightsreserved.Thecontentandthedataprovidedinthisdocumentareforyourinformationand internaluseonly.Thecontentisprovided“asis”withoutanywarrantyastoaccuracy,completeness,satisfactoryqualityorfitnessforanyparticularpurpose.Itisstrictlyforbiddentoextract,reproduce,republishorpublicallydisplayanycontentincludedinthisdocumentwithoutthepriorwrittenauthorisation

ofForwardData,SL.Ifyouwishtouseanyofthiscontentorsimilardata,[email protected] formoreinformationaboutourservices.SomeiconsmadebyFreepik fromwww.flaticon.com

DESTINATION

London

Methodology & Glossary

ThisanalysisisbasedonAirReservationDatapropertyofForwardKeys®asof1st July2017.Databasecontainsreservationshandledbymorethan200000onlineandofflinetravelagenciesworldwide

Arrivals: refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at thedestination within a specific time frame.

Arrivals on the Book (Arrivals OTB): refer to the number of airlinepassengers arriving at the destination within a specific future timeframe according to the bookings that have been issued as noted.

Departures: refer to the number of airline passengers departing fromany location within a specific time frame.

Departures on the Book (Departures OTB): refer to the number ofairline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific futuretime frame according to the bookings that have been issued as noted.

Bookings: represent air reservations made for travel to the specificdestination (i.e. UK) for any date of travel.

Capacity: Schedules for commercial flights between two specificlocations. Reflects the volume of passengers that can fly between onedestination and another using direct flights.

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Documents

Welcome! []...to 23rd May 2016. Arrivals on the book to selected destinations between 23rd May and 31st August as of 22nd May 2017 vs. 25th May to 1st September as of 23rd May 2016