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COST733 WG4 CTs vs Teleconnection indices and Precipitation over Spain María Jesús Casado María Asunción Pastor Sub. Gral. Climatología y Aplicaciones State Meteorological Agency (AEMet). WG4:Testing methods for various applications. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
COST733COST733WG4WG4
CTs vs Teleconnection indices and Precipitation over Spain
María Jesús CasadoMaría Asunción Pastor
Sub. Gral. Climatología y AplicacionesState Meteorological Agency (AEMet)
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
WG4:Testing methods for various applications
Question: “Which are the best classifications for the selected applications?”
• Evaluation based on the comparison of characteristics of events in the classifications
• Teleconnection indices and Circulation Types (CTs)
• Influence of Circulation Types on Precipitation over SPAIN
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
COST733 D00-D09
D00 D09
CECGWT LITADVELITTCLUNDLWT2 NNW P27 PCACA PCAXTRKM PCAXTR PETISCO SANDRAS SANDRATPCA07TPCAVWLKC733 HBGWLOGWL PECZELY PERRET SCHUEEPP ZAMG
CECGWT LITADVELITTCLUNDLWT2 NNW P27 PCACA PCAXTRKM PCAXTR PETISCO SANDRAS SANDRATPCA07TPCAVWLKC733
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
1. Evaluation
• Version 1.1 of the catalogue
• Domains D00 and D09
• Extended winter (DJFM)
We analyze the behaviour of the classifications about the distribution of events, the mean lifetime, the percentage of time spending in events lasting 4 or more days and the number of 1-day events
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
1. Evaluation
Percentage of time spent in events >=4 days
0
10
2030
40
50
6070
80
90
CE
C
GW
T
LIT
AD
VE
LIT
TC
LUN
D
LWT
2
NN
W
P27
PC
AC
A
PC
AX
TR
KM
PC
AX
TR
PE
TIS
CO
SA
ND
RA
SA
ND
RA
S
TP
CA
V
TP
CA
07
WLK
C73
3
HB
GW
L
OG
WL
PE
CZ
ELY
PE
RR
ET
SC
HU
EE
PP
ZA
MG
Classifications
D00
D09
1-day Events
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
CE
C
GW
T
LIT
AD
VE
LIT
TC
LUN
D
LWT
2
NN
W
P27
PC
AC
A
PC
AX
TR
KM
PC
AX
TR
PE
TIS
CO
SA
ND
RA
SA
ND
RA
S
TP
CA
V
TP
CA
07
WLK
C73
3
HB
GW
L
OG
WL
PE
CZ
ELY
PE
RR
ET
SC
HU
EE
PP
ZA
MG
Classifications
Nu
mb
er o
f 1-
day
eve
nts
D00
D09
Mean residence time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CE
C
GW
T
LIT
AD
VE
LIT
TC
LUN
D
LWT
2
NN
W
P27
PC
AC
A
PC
AX
TR
KM
PC
AX
TR
PE
TIS
CO
SA
ND
RA
SA
ND
RA
S
TP
CA
V
TP
CA
07
WLK
C73
3
HB
GW
L
OG
WL
PE
CZ
ELY
PE
RR
ET
SC
HU
EE
PP
ZA
MG
Classifications
Day
s D00
D09
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
SCHUEEPP-D00
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Circulation types
Nu
mb
er o
f d
ays
HBGWL-D00
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Circulation types
Nu
mb
er o
f d
ays
TPCA07-D09
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Circulation types
Nu
mb
er o
f d
ays
1. Evaluation
NNW-D09
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Circulation types
Nu
mb
er o
f d
ays
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
For D00
• HBGWL,TPCA07 and SANDRAS exhibit the higher percentages of time spent in events lasting 4 or more days, similar behaviour for the mean residence time
• SCHUEEPP, LITTC and LWT2 exhibit the shorter percentage of time spent in events lasting 4 or more days
• The classifications with the shorter mean residence time have a large proportion of 1-day events
For D09
• PCACA and NNW exhibit the higher percentages of time spent in events lasting 4 or more days, similar behaviour for the mean residence time
• LWT2, WLKC733 and P27 exhibit the shorter percentage of time spent in events lasting 4 or more days
• PCACA and NNW exhibit the most noticeable changes with respect to the results obtained for D00 (both classifications suffer a considerable reduction in the number of CTs in D09)
1. Evaluation
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.- Teleconnection indices/CTs
Which classifications are the best for discriminating NAO phases?
2.1.- Frequency of NAO+ and NAO- of each CT and classification
2.2.- Discrimination of classifications using χ2 statistic
Which classifications are the best for discriminating teleconnection indices?
2.3.- Discrimination of classifications using R2
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.1 NAO+/NAO-
• We analyse the relationship between NAO phases and CTs, using the winter NAO daily index, from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), after its standardization
• We define NAO+ as the values greater than 1.0, and NAO- as
the values lesser than -1.0
• For each CT we analyse the number of days which are NAO+ and NAO- respectively
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
HBGWL-D00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Circulation types
Rel
ativ
e fr
equ
ency
NAO+
NAO-
NNW-D00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Circulation types
Rel
ativ
e fr
equ
ency
NAO+
NAO-
2.1 NAO+/NAO- D00
SANDRA-D00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Circulation types
Rel
ativ
e fr
equ
ency
NAO+
NAO-
OGWL-D00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Circulation types
Rel
ativ
e fr
equ
ency
NAO+
NAO-
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.1 NAO+/NAO- D00
The largest frequency values are detected for NAO- in:
HBGWL (CT14), 75% of the daysNNW (CT2), 75% of the daysOGWL (CT14,CT15), 65% of the days
The largest frequency values are detected for NAO+ in:
SANDRA (CT15,CT16), 50% of the daysSANDRAS (CT23), 50% of the daysTPCA07 (CT1), >40% of the days
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
LITTC-D09
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Circulation types
Rel
ativ
e fr
equ
ency
NAO+
NAO-
PCAXTR-D09
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Circulation types
Rel
ativ
e fr
equ
ency
NAO+
NAO-
PCACA-D09
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4
Circulation types
Rel
ativ
e fr
equ
ency
NAO+
NAO-
2.1 NAO+/NAO- D09
GWT-D09
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Circulation types
Rel
ativ
e fr
equ
ency
NAO+
NAO-
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
The largest frequency values are detected for NAO- in:
SANDRA (CT19), 50% of the daysLITTC (CT13), 50% of the daysTPCA07 (CT5), 40% of the days
The largest frequency values are detected for NAO+ in:
SANDRAS (CT16), 40% of the daysPCAXTR (CT9), 40% of the daysPCAXTRKM (CT9), 40% of the days
2.1 NAO+/NAO- D09
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.2 X2 statistics
The X2 statistics:
I
i
teori
teorii NpNpk
1
22 )/)((
pi teor =(ni/N)*(K/N)
ki number of days of NAO+ (NAO-) for each CT and classification
ni total number of days for each CT and classification
K total number of days NAO+ (NAO-)
N total number of days for the period Dec 1957 to Mar 2002 (5456 days)
I number of CTs for each classification
Criteria: the higher values of X2 the best discrimination
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.2 χ2 statistics
NAO+
D00 D09SANDRAS SANDRAS
SANDRA CEC
NNW SANDRA
P27 LITTC
OGWL PCACA
NAO-
D00 D09SANDRAS SANDRAS
CEC SANDRA
OGWL CEC
SANDRA LITTC
NNW PCACA
NAO+
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
CEC
GWT
LITADVE
LITTC
LUND
LWT2
NNW
P27
PCACA
PCAXTRKM
PCAXTR
PETISCO
SANDRA
SANDRAS
TPCAV
TPCA07
WLKC733
HBGWL
OGWL
PECZELY
PERRET
SCHUEEPP
ZAMG
Classifications
X2
D00 D09
NAO-
0200400600800
100012001400
CEC
GWT
LITADVE
LITTC
LUND
LWT2
NNW
P27
PCACA
PCAXTRKM
PCAXTR
PETISCO
SANDRA
SANDRAS
TPCAV
TPCA07
WLKC733
HBGWL
OGWL
PECZELY
PERRET
SCHUEEPP
ZAMG
Classifications
X2
D00 D09
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.2 Ranking of classifications for NAO+/NAO- using χ2 statisticsNAO+ NAO-
D00 D09 D00 D09
SANDRASSANDRANNWP27OGWLLITTCTPCA07CECLITADVELUNDHBGWLPERRETPCACAPCAXTRKMLWT2TPCAVGWTPCAXTRPETISCOWLKC733SCHUEEPPZAMGPECZELY
SANDRASCECSANDRALITTCPCACAWLKC733P27PCAXTRZAMGPETISCOPCAXTRKMLWT2TPCAVNNWGWTLUNDLITADVETPCA07
SANDRASCECOGWLSANDRANNWHBGWLPCAXTRKMPCAXTRTPCAVP27PETISCOLITTCLITADVELWT2PERRETGWTLUNDPCACATPCA07WLKC733SCHUEEPPPECZELYZAMG
SANDRASSANDRACECLITTCPCACAP27WLKC733LWT2PETISCOPCAXTRKMGWTTPCA07PCAXTRLUNDTPCAVLITADVENNW
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.3 Teleconnection indices
• Principal Component analysis (PCA) in S-mode followed by an orthogonal rotation (varimax), (Richman, 1986) is applied to the daily winter 500-hPa geopotential height from ERA40 (2.5º x 2.5º).
• Four PCs rotated determined by the Log-Eigenvalue diagram.• Cumulative percentage of variance explained by the four PCs rotated:
62.2%.• Teleconnection indices identified: NAO, SCAN, EA and EU2
• Spatial domain: Euro-Atlantic region: 250N - 700N 450W - 500E (D00: 300N - 760N 370W - 580E)
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.3 R2 Discrimination
• The medians of the four teleconnection indices series for each classification are sorted in ascending order
• The linear trend and the coefficient of determination (R2) are calculated
• R2 value is used for discriminating classifications. The higher R2 values, the best discrimination
LITADVE-D09SCAN
y = 0,0252x - 0,1114
R2 = 0,7784
-0,15
-0,1
-0,05
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Circulation Types
Med
ian
Example
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.3 R2 Discrimination
D00
0,75
0,8
0,85
0,9
0,95
1
CE
C
GW
T
LIT
AD
VE
LIT
TC
LUN
D
LWT
2
NN
W
P27
PC
AC
A
PC
AX
TR
KM
PC
AX
TR
PE
TIS
CO
SA
ND
RA
SA
ND
RA
S
TP
CA
V
TP
CA
07
WLK
C73
3
HB
GW
L
OG
WL
PE
CZ
ELY
PE
RR
ET
SC
HU
EE
PP
ZA
MG
Classifications
R2
EU2
EA
SCAN
NAO
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.3 R2 Discrimination
D09
0,75
0,8
0,85
0,9
0,95
1
CE
C
GW
T
LIT
AD
VE
LIT
TC
LUN
D
LWT
2
NN
W
P27
PC
AC
A
PC
AX
TR
KM
PC
AX
TR
PE
TIS
CO
SA
ND
RA
SA
ND
RA
S
TP
CA
V
TP
CA
07
WLK
C73
3
HB
GW
L
OG
WL
PE
CZ
ELY
PE
RR
ET
SC
HU
EE
PP
ZA
MG
Classifications
R2
EU2
EA
SCAN
NAO
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.3 Ranking of classifications for teleconnection indices using R2
NAO EA SCAN EU2
D00 D09 D00 D09 D00 D09 D00 D09
SANDRASANDRAGWTGWTLITTCLITTCP27P27NNWNNWWLKC733WLKC733LWT2LWT2PCAXTRPCAXTRSCHUEEPPSCHUEEPPPCAXTRKMPCAXTRKMCECCECOGWLOGWLHBGWLHBGWLPECZELYPECZELYLITADVELITADVETPCAVTPCAVSANDRASSANDRASPERRETPERRETPCACAPCACAZAMGZAMGLUNDLUNDTPCA07TPCA07PETISCOPETISCO
LWT2LWT2CECCECSANDRASSANDRASNNWNNWGWTGWTSANDRASANDRALITTCLITTCP27P27LUNDLUNDLITADVELITADVEWLKC733WLKC733PCAXTRKPCAXTRKMMPETISCOPETISCOTPCAVTPCAVPCACAPCACAPCAXTRPCAXTRTPCA07TPCA07
PCAXTRPCAXTRNNWNNWPERRETPERRETPCACAPCACAGWTGWTZAMGZAMGSCHUEEPPSCHUEEPPSANDRASANDRALITTCLITTCPCAXTRKMPCAXTRKMLWT2LWT2HBGWLHBGWLOGWLOGWLLITADVELITADVECECCECP27P27SANDRASSANDRASTPCAVTPCAVTPCA07TPCA07PETISCOPETISCOLUNDLUNDPECZELYPECZELYWLKC733WLKC733
LUNDLUNDPETISCOPETISCOP27P27LITADVELITADVEPCACAPCACALITTCLITTCSANDRASANDRACECCECLWT2LWT2GWTGWTSANDRASSANDRASTPCAVTPCAVPCAXTRPCAXTRWLKC733WLKC733NNWNNWPCAXTRKMPCAXTRKMTPCA07TPCA07
PERRETPERRETP27P27OGWLOGWLLWT2LWT2GWTGWTLUNDLUNDPCAXTRPCAXTRLITTCLITTCSCHUEEPPSCHUEEPPPCAXTRKMPCAXTRKMHBGWLHBGWLSANDRASANDRAZAMGZAMGPETISCOPETISCOCECCECWLKC733WLKC733PECZELYPECZELYSANDRASSANDRASPCACAPCACALITADVELITADVETPCA07TPCA07NNWNNWTPCAVTPCAV
PETISCOPETISCOGWTGWTLWT2LWT2LITTCLITTCTPCA07TPCA07PCAXTRPCAXTRSANDRASSANDRASP27P27CECCECWLKC733WLKC733SANDRASANDRATPCAVTPCAVPCAXTRKMPCAXTRKMLUNDLUNDPCACAPCACANNWNNWLITADVELITADVE
LITTCLITTCSCHUEEPPSCHUEEPPP27P27LWT2LWT2OGWLOGWLPCAXTRKMPCAXTRKMSANDRASANDRANNWNNWPCAXTRPCAXTRWLKC733WLKC733PETISCOPETISCOCECCECPECZELYPECZELYPERRETPERRETSANDRASSANDRASHBGWLHBGWLGWTGWTLITADVELITADVEZAMGZAMGLUNDLUNDTPCAVTPCAVTPCA07TPCA07PCACAPCACA
P27P27LWT2LWT2CECCECLITADVELITADVEGWTGWTPCAXTRPCAXTRPETISCOPETISCOLUNDLUNDSANDRASSANDRASLITTCLITTCTPCA07TPCA07SANDRASANDRAWLKC733WLKC733NNWNNWPCAXTRKMPCAXTRKMTPCAVTPCAVPCACAPCACA
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
2.3 Concluding remarks
For D00
• The R2 highest value is shown in EA• LITTC,LWT2,SCHUEEPP and CEC show similar R2 values for
all the teleconnection indices
For D09
• The R2 highest value is shown in EU2• SCAN show small R2 values for a great number of
classifications• LITTC, LWT2 show similar R2 values for all the
teleconnection indices
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3. Influence of Circulation Types on Precipitation over Spain
3.1.- Data
3.2.- Precipitation percentage for each CT and classification
3.3.- Discrimination of classifications using the standard deviation of the
precipitation percentage
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.1 Data
• Daily gridded Precipitation data from INM Climatological Data Base
• Temporal domain: extended winter (DJFM) from 1961-1990
• Spatial domain: Spain
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
203 grid points (50kmx60km)
3.1 Data
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.2 Precipitation Percentage D00
TPCA07
0
10
20
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
PCACA
05
10152025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
PETISCO
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
LUND
05
10152025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.2 Precipitation Percentage D09
TPCA07
05
10152025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
PCAXTRKM
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
PCACA
0
20
40
60
1 2 3 4
TPCAV
05
10152025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
The red box is limited by : 1st quartile, median and 3rd quartile
3.2 Precipitation Percentage
classifications
1. GWT
2. LITADVE
3. LITTC
4. LUND
5. LWT2
6. NNW
7. P27
8. PCACA
9. PCAXTRKM
10. PCAXTR
11. PETISCO
12. SANDRAS
13. SANDRA
14. TPCA07
15. TPCAV
16. WLKC733
17. HBGWL
18. OGWL
19. PECZELY
20. PERRET
21. SCHUEEPP
22. ZAMG
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.2 Precipitation Percentage
The red box is limited by : 1st quartile, median and 3rd quartile
classifications
1. GWT
2. LITADVE
3. LITTC
4. LUND
5. LWT2
6. NNW
7. P27
8. PCACA
9. PCAXTRKM
10. PCAXTR
11. PETISCO
12. SANDRAS
13. SANDRA
14. TPCA07
15. TPCAV
16. WLKC733
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.2 Precipitation Percentage (Box-plots)
For D00
• The classifications with larger interquantile range are: LUND, PCACA and PECZELY
• The maximum appears in PETISCO followed by TPCA07• The classifications with larger medians are:
TPCA07,LITADVE and LUND
For D09
• The classifications with larger interquantile range are: PCACA, TPCAV and TPCA07
• The maximum appears in PCACA followed by PCAXTR and PCAXTRKM
• The classifications with larger medians are: PCACA, TPCA07 and LITADVE
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.3 Standard Deviation of Precip.Percentage
The Standard Deviation of Precipitation percentage:
2
1
)()1(
1)( j
N
iij xx
NjSTD
j grid-point
xij precipitation percentage at gridpoint j for a CT i and classification
mean of the precipitation percentage at gridpoint j for a given classification
N number of CTs for each classification
Criteria: the higher values of STD the best discrimination
This way, we have spatial patterns of the ‘performance’ of classifications
N
xx
N
iij
j
1
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.3 STD of precipitation percentage DOO
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.3 STD of precipitation percentage DO9
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.3 STD of precipitation percentage (mean value)
STD Precipitation Percentage
0
24
6
8
1012
14
CE
C
GW
T
LIT
AD
VE
LIT
TC
LUN
D
LWT
2
NN
W
P27
PC
AC
A
PC
AX
TR
KM
PC
AX
TR
PE
TIS
CO
SA
ND
RA
SA
ND
RA
S
TP
CA
V
TP
CA
07
WLK
C73
3
HB
GW
L
OG
WL
PE
CZ
ELY
PE
RR
ET
SC
HU
EE
PP
ZA
MG
Classifications
D00
D09
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.3 Ranking of classifications using STD (Prec.Perc.)
STD
D00 D09
TPCA07LUNDPCACAPETISCOPECZELYTPCAVLITADVEPCAXTRKMPCAXTRSANDRAGWTNNWSANDRASCECLWT2HBGWLWLKC733PERRETZAMGLITTCOGWLP27SCHUEEPP
PCACATPCA07TPCAVPCAXTRKMPCAXTRLUNDNNWLITADVEGWTSANDRALITTCPETISCOLWT2SANDRASP27CECWLKC733
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.-Concluding remarks Percentage of precipitation
For D00
• Highest percentages for: PETISCO, PCACA,TPCA07 and PCAXTR (15-40%)
• Smallest percentages for: P27,OGWL, LITTC, PERRET and SCHUEEPP (<10%)
For D09
• Highest percentages for: PCACA, PCAXTRKM, LITADVE, LUND, NNW, PECZELY and PETISCO (15-50%)
• Smallest percentages for: OGWL and LITTC (<10%)
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
3.-Concluding remarks
STD of precipitation percentage
For D00
• TPCA07 and LUND capture the three main regions of precipitation over Iberian Peninsula: Atlantic region, Cantabrian region and Mediterranean coast. In a lesser extent, PETISCO, PECZELY, TPCAV and LITADVE
For D09
• PCACA is to a large extent the best classification in capturing the three above-mentionned regions of precipitation in Iberian Peninsula.
WG4 Ioannina, 9 -10 May 2008
MANY THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION