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Fahmida KhatunExecutive Director, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)
Syed Yusuf SaadatResearch Associate, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)
Dhaka: 20 November 2018
What are the Prospects of Achieving SDGs in Bangladesh?
Exploring a Select Set of Indicators under Business as Usual Scenario
Presented atResearch-Policy Meeting on
Interpreting SDGs for South Asia: In Search of a Regional Framework
1. Introduction1.1 Context
1.2 Use of Forecasting Exercise
1.3 Choice of Indicators
1.4 Limitations of the Study
2. Past Progress of SDG Related Indictors in Bangladesh
3. Methodology for Forecasting
4. Prospects of SDG Implementation in Bangladesh
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
2
CONTENTS
1. Introduction
• Bangladesh is one of the 47 countries that haspresented its Voluntary National Review(VNR) on SDGs to the High Level PoliticalForum (HLPF).
• Such reviews, however, do not contain anyfuture projections of SDG implementation inthe country.
• This research aims to fill in this knowledgegap by tracking the past performance andforecasting the future potential of SDGimplementation in the context of Bangladesh.
4
1.1 Context
• Forecasting and planning go hand-in-hand inthe effective and efficient attainment of goals.
• By predicting the trajectory of selectedindicators, we can better understand theactions required to attain the SDGs and planaccordingly.
• The results of this study will guide policy-making so that SDGs that are currently off-track may be identified and subsequentlysteered in the right direction.
5
1.2 Use of Forecasting Exercise
• The basis of choosing the indicators inthis study are as follows:
(i) they were easily expressed in numbers;(ii) they conveyed the essence of the goalwhich they represented; and(iii) data were readily available for thoseindicators.
• Based on these three criteria, oneindicator was chosen to reflect thestatus of each SDG.
6
1.3 Choice of Indicators
• Forecast is only valid for the indicatorconcerned and does not represent the state ofother targets in the particular SDG
• It is assumed that past trends will continue inthe future
• Unforeseen events are not accounted for
"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it'sabout the future."
- Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics
7
1.4 Limitations of the Study
2. Past Progress of SDG related indicators in Bangladesh
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 1.1: Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line
• In 2000, almost half of the population (48.9%) were below the national poverty line
• In 2015, the share of population below the national poverty line fell to 24.3%
• However, national trends fail to account for regional differences
9
SDG 1: End Poverty
Figure: SDG 1.1 Poverty Headcount Ratio at National Poverty Line
(% of population living below national poverty line)
48.9
40
31.5
24.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 2005 2015
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
sdg1.1 Linear (sdg1.1)
Source: World Bank, Global Poverty Working Group.
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 2.1: Prevalence of undernourishment
• Incidence of hunger fell from 20.8% in 2000 to 16.3% in 2006
• Between 2007 and 2012, incidence of hunger increased
• 15.2% of the population were undernourished in 2016
10
SDG 2: End Hunger
Figure: SDG 2.1 Prevalence of Undernourishment
(3-Year Average) (% of Population)
Source: FAO estimate
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 3.1: Maternal deaths
• Maternal deaths have been falling continuously since 1986
• Only 2001 and 2006 are exceptional years when maternal deaths rose
• Rate of decline has been more gradual in recent years
11
SDG 3: Ensure Healthy Lives
Figure: SDG 3.1 Maternal Deaths (Per 100,000 Births)
Source: Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics, BBS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
20
13
20
16
Ma
tern
al
de
ath
s (p
er
10
0,0
00
bir
ths)
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 4.1: Lower secondary completion rate
• Lower secondary completion rates rose from 48.8% in 1998 to 58.9% in 2003
• 76.5% of the target population had completed lower secondary education in 2016
• However, completion rates do not account for the quality of education
12
SDG 4: Ensure Quality Education
Figure: SDG 4.1 Lower Secondary Completion Rate,
Both Sexes (%)
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 5.3 Women Who Were First Married By Age 18
• 73.3% of women aged 20-24 were married by age 18 in 1994
• Overall, early marriage shows declining trend but the incidence is still alarmingly high
• 58.6% of women aged 20-24 were married by age 18 in 2014
13
SDG 5: Achieve Gender Equality
Figure: SDG 5.3 Women Who Were First Married By Age 18 (% of
Women Ages 20-24)
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 2000 2010 2020
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 6.2 People Using At Least Basic Sanitation Services
• Access to basic sanitation has nearly doubled in the last 15 years
• 46.9% of the population had access to basic sanitation in 2015, compared to 25.3% in 2000
• However, more than half of the population still do not have access to basic sanitation
14
SDG 6: Ensure Sanitation for All
Figure: SDG 6.2 People Using At Least Basic Sanitation Services
(% of Population)
Source: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for Water Supply,
Sanitation and Hygiene
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 7.1 Access To Electricity
• Access to electricity has been increasing almost every year since 1990
• More than average increases were observed in 2006 and 2015
• However, affordability of electricity has been compromised with higher tariffs
15
SDG 7: Ensure Access to Energy
Figure: SDG 7.1 Access To Electricity (% of Population)
Source: World Bank, Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) database
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 8.1 GDP Growth Rate
• Economic growth in Bangladesh has been rapid and resilient
• GDP has been growing at more than 6% since 2011
• However, economic growth has failed to create decent jobs - especially for the large population of youth
16
SDG 8: Promote Economic Growth
Figure: SDG 8.1 GDP Growth Rate (in %)
At Constant Prices (Base Year 2005-06)
Source: GDP of Bangladesh, BBS
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 9.2 Share Of Manufacturing in GDP
• Rate of industrialisationpicked up pace from 2005 onwards
• Share of manufacturing in GDP increased from 14.4% in 1996 to 21% in 2016
• Such structural change of the economy presents a challenge for the labourmarket
17
SDG 9: Promote Industrialisation
Figure: SDG 9.2 Share Of Manufacturing in GDP (%)
At Constant Prices (Base Year 2005-06)
Source: GDP of Bangladesh, BBS
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 10.1 Income Share of Bottom 40 Per Cent
• Income share of the poorest 40% of the population has been declining
• Declining income shares for the poor imply rising income shares for the rich
• If poor get poorer, then overall inequality increases
18
SDG 10: Reduce Inequality
Figure: SDG 10.1 Income Share of Bottom 40 Per Cent
(% of National Income)
Source: Household Income and Expenditure Surveys, BBS
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 2000 2010 2020
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 11.1 Population Living In Slums
• Urban slum population has declined significantly
• 55.1% of the urban population lived in slums in 2014, compared to 87.3% in 1990
• Share of urban population living in slums is still unacceptably high
19
SDG 11: Make Cities Sustainable
Figure: SDG 11.1 Population Living In Slums
(% of Urban Population)
Source: UN HABITAT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 12.2 Total Natural Resources Rents
• Economic rents from natural resource extraction soared between 2003 and 2006
• However, there has been a sharp decline from 2011 onwards
• As natural resources become more scarce, extraction costs increase since the low-hanging fruits have already been depleted
20
SDG 12: Sustainable Consumption & Production
Figure: SDG 12.2 Total Natural Resources Rents (% of GDP)
Source: World Bank estimate
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 13.2 Net Carbon Emissions/Removals
• Net carbon emissions/removals were largely stable from 1990 to 2005
• However, there was a big drop in 2006 followed by a jump in 2011
• Bangladesh is one of the least carbon emitting yet most climate vulnerable countries in the world
21
SDG 13: Combat Climate Change
Figure: SDG 13.2 Net Emissions/Removals (CO2)
(In Gigagrams)
Source: FAO estimate
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Gig
ag
ram
s
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 14.4 Total Fisheries Production
• Fisheries production shows increasing trend
• Between 1990 and 2016, fisheries production has increased by a factor of 4
• Trends indicate increasing tendency of overfishing which threatens fish stocks
22
SDG 14: Conserve the Oceans
Figure: SDG 14.4 Total Fisheries Production (Metric Tons)
Source: FAO
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
Me
tric
to
ns
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 15.2 Forest Area
• Forest’s share of land area has been declining
• In 1990, forests covered only 11.4% of land – which was already quite low
• Destruction of primary forests can cause irreversible damage to biodiversity
23
SDG 15: Protect Forests
Figure: SDG 15.2 Forest Area (% of Land Area)
Source: FAO
10.00
10.20
10.40
10.60
10.80
11.00
11.20
11.40
11.60
11.80
12.00
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 16.1 Intentional Homicides
• Murder rates have been around 2.5 to 2.8 per 100,000 people during the period 2000 and 2015
• Rates are low compared to more unstable or violent countries
• Data are estimates, since crime is generally under-reported
24
SDG 16: Promote Peaceful Societies
Figure: SDG 16.1 Intentional Homicides
(Per 100,000 People)
Source: UN Office on Drugs and Crime
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
3.00
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Inte
nti
on
al
ho
mic
ide
s (p
er
10
0,0
00
pe
op
le)
Year
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 17.1 Tax Revenue
• Tax revenue as a share of GDP was stagnant at around 7% between 2001 and 2007
• In 2016, tax revenue as a share of GDP could not reach even 9%
• Domestic revenue mobilisation in Bangladesh is poor compared to regional standards
25
SDG 17: Strengthen Means of Implementation
Figure: SDG 17.1 Tax Revenue (% of GDP)
Source: International Monetary Fund, Government Finance Statistics
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
3. Methodology for Forecasting
• Missing values in the data were imputed withmaximum likelihood estimates
• Forecasts were based on autoregressiveintegrated moving average (ARIMA) models• Box–Jenkins approach was followed to set up
benchmark ARIMA models
• To improve robustness, the benchmark modelswere used to specify 100 different ARIMA modelswhich were averaged to obtain the final forecasts
• Seasonality was addressed when required
27
Methodology
4. Future Prospects of SDGImplementation in Bangladesh
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 1.1: Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line
• The target for 2030 is to have zero per cent of the population living below the national poverty line
• If current trends continue, then 1.7% of the population will be below the national poverty line in 2030
29
SDG 1: End Poverty
Figure: SDG 1.1 Poverty Headcount Ratio at National Poverty Line
(% of population living below national poverty line)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
R C
EN
T
sdg1.1 (actual) sdg1.1 (forecast) sdg1.1 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 2.1: Prevalence of undernourishment
• The target for 2030 is to have zero per cent prevalence of undernourishment
• The forecast shows that 11.7% of the population will still remain undernourished in 2030, if current trends continue
30
SDG 2: End Hunger
Figure: SDG 2.1 Prevalence of Undernourishment
(3-Year Average) (% of Population)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
R C
EN
T
sdg2.1 (actual) sdg2.1 (forecast) sdg2.1 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 3.1: Maternal deaths
• The target for 2030 is to have less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 births
• At the current rate of progress, the target will be achieved within 2026
31
SDG 3: Ensure Healthy Lives
Figure: SDG 3.1 Maternal Deaths (Per 100,000 Births)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
MA
TE
RN
AL
DE
AT
HS
(P
ER
10
0,0
00
BIR
TH
S)
sdg3.1 (actual) sdg3.1 (forecast) sdg3.1 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 4.1: Lower secondary completion rate
• The target for 2030 is to have 100% lower secondary completion rate
• The forecast shows that lower secondary completion rate will be 97.6% in 2030, if current trends continue
32
SDG 4: Ensure Quality Education
Figure: SDG 4.1 Lower Secondary Completion Rate,
Both Sexes (%)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
R C
EN
T
sdg4.1 (actual) sdg4.1 (forecast) sdg4.1 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 5.3 Women Who Were First Married By Age 18
• The target for 2030 is to have zero per cent of women between the ages of 20-24 getting married by age 18
• 48.9% women aged between 20-24 will get married by age 18 in 2030, if current trends continue
33
SDG 5: Achieve Gender Equality
Figure: SDG 5.3 Women Who Were First Married By Age 18 (% of
Women Ages 20-24)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
R C
EN
T
sdg5.3 (actual) sdg5.3 (forecast) sdg5.3 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 6.2 People Using At Least Basic Sanitation Services
• The target for 2030 is ensure that 100% of the population have access to basic sanitation services
• 68.7% of the population will have access to basic sanitation services in 2030, if current trends continue
34
SDG 6: Ensure Sanitation for All
Figure: SDG 6.2 People Using At Least Basic Sanitation Services
(% of Population)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
R C
EN
T
sdg6.2 (actual) sdg6.2 (forecast) sdg6.2 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 7.1 Access To Electricity
• The target for 2030 is to provide electricity access to 100% of the population
• If current trends continue, 95.6% of the population will have access to electricity in 2030
35
SDG 7: Ensure Access to Energy
Figure: SDG 7.1 Access To Electricity (% of Population)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
R C
EN
T
sdg7.1 (actual) sdg7.1 (forecast) sdg7.1 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 8.1 GDP Growth Rate
• The target for 2030 is to achieve and sustain 7% annual GDP growth
• Annual GDP growth has been over 7% since 2016 and is projected to reach 9.1% in 2030
• Similar forecasts were obtained by the General Economics Division (GED)
36
SDG 8: Promote Economic Growth
Figure: SDG 8.1 GDP Growth Rate (in %)
At Constant Prices (Base Year 2005-06)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
R C
EN
T
sdg8.1 (actual) sdg8.1 (forecast) sdg8.1 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 9.2 Share Of Manufacturing in GDP
• The target for 2030 is to have a share of manufacturing in GDP which is double that of the levels in 2015
• For Bangladesh, this would mean a manufacturing share of GDP of 40%
• By 2030, manufacturing will be 31% of GDP, if current trends continue
37
SDG 9: Promote Industrialisation
Figure: SDG 9.2 Share Of Manufacturing in GDP (%)
At Constant Prices (Base Year 2005-06)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
R C
EN
T
sdg9.2 (actual) sdg9.2 (forecast) sdg9.2 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 10.1 Income Share of Bottom 40 Per Cent
• The target for 2030 is to increase the share of income held by the poorest 40% of the population
• This means that the growth in the share of income held by the poorest 40% of the population should be greater than zero
• If current trends continue, income share of the poorest 40% will decrease by 1% annually in 2030
38
SDG 10: Reduce Inequality
Figure: SDG 10.1 Income Share of Bottom 40 Per Cent
(% of National Income)
Source: Authors’ calculations
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
sdg10.1 (actual) sdg10.1 (forecast) sdg10.1 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 11.1 Population Living In Slums
• The target for 2030 is to ensure that zero per cent of the urban population are living in slums
• 34% of the urban population will be living in slums in 2030, if current trends continue
39
SDG 11: Make Cities Sustainable
Figure: SDG 11.1 Population Living In Slums
(% of Urban Population)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
R C
EN
T
sdg11.1 (actual) sdg11.1 (forecast) sdg11.1 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 12.2 Total Natural Resources Rents
• Natural resource rents as a percentage of GDP will fall to 0.9% in 2030, if current trends continue
• Extraction of natural resources is forecasted to be less profitable in 2030 compared to 2015
40
SDG 12: Sustainable Consumption & Production
Figure: SDG 12.2 Total Natural Resources Rents (% of GDP)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
R C
EN
T
sdg12.2 (actual) sdg12.2 (forecast)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 13.2 Net Carbon Emissions/Removals
• The target for 2030 is to reduce carbon emissions
• By 2030, net carbon emissions/removals will rise back to levels similar to 2015
41
SDG 13: Combat Climate Change
Figure: SDG 13.2 Net Emissions/Removals (CO2)
(In Gigagrams)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
20
26
20
29
GIG
AG
RA
MS
sdg13.2 (actual) sdg13.2 (forecast)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 14.4 Total Fisheries Production
• The target for 2030 is to pursue fishing in a sustainable way
• Total fisheries production is forecasted to keep rising till 2030, although the rate of increase will slow down gradually
42
SDG 14: Conserve the Oceans
Figure: SDG 14.4 Total Fisheries Production (Metric Tons)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
20
26
20
29
ME
TR
IC T
ON
NE
S
sdg14.4 (actual) sdg14.4 (forecast)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 15.2 Forest Area
• The target for 2030 is to stop deforestation
• This means that percentage change in forest area as a share of total land area should be greater than or equal to zero
• However, if current trends continue, forest area is forecasted to decline continuously up to 2030
43
SDG 15: Protect Forests
Figure: SDG 15.2 Forest Area (% of Land Area)
Source: Authors’ calculations
-0.20
-0.18
-0.16
-0.14
-0.12
-0.10
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
sdg15.2 (actual) sdg15.2 (forecast) sdg15.2 (target)
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 16.1 Intentional Homicides
• The target for 2030 is to reduce the murder rate
• Projecting the current trends shows an increasing trend in the murder rate
• Generally, criminal activity is unpredictable by nature
44
SDG 16: Promote Peaceful Societies
Figure: SDG 16.1 Intentional Homicides
(Per 100,000 People)
Source: Authors’ calculations
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
DE
AT
HS
PE
R 1
00
,00
0 P
EO
PL
E
sdg16.1 sdg16.1f
Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 17.1 Tax Revenue
• The target for 2030 is to have tax revenue which is double the level of tax revenue in 2015
• For Bangladesh, this would be mean that tax revenue as a percentage of GDP would have to be 17%
• Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP will be 10.7% in 2030 if current trends continue
45
SDG 17: Strengthen Means of Implementation
Figure: SDG 17.1 Tax Revenue (% of GDP)
Source: Authors’ calculations
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
PE
R C
EN
T
sdg17.1 (actual) sdg17.1 (forecast) sdg17.1 (target)
5. Conclusions andRecommendations
47
On-track SDGs
• The following SDG targets will be achieved or nearlyachieved in 2030
48
Partially Off-track SDGs
• The following SDG targets will require intervention to be achieved ornearly achieved by 2030
49
Completely Off-track SDGs
• The following SDG targets will not be achieved by2030, and require immediate attention
50
An SDG Scorecard for Bangladesh
Source: Authors’ calculations
• Reduce tax evasion, and increase the number ofdirect tax-payers
• Shift taxes away from consumption and incomeand towards wealth and capital gain
• Revolutionise the education system in line withthe needs of the modern labour market
• Simplify the process of starting a business toencourage entrepreneurship
• Create job opportunities for skilled youth
• Increase the number of protected areas andnature reserves
51
Recommendations
• Increase investment in agricultural researchand technology to increase food yields
• Create awareness about reducing earlymarriage
• Involve local government actors to improvesanitation
• Decentralise public institutions to reducepressure on cities
• Improve management of natural resources
• Prevent overfishing to protect fish stocks
52
Recommendations (continued)
THANK YOU
https://cpd.org.bd
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