Counterfactual

What would good regulation look like?Global Forum on Nicotine

Warsaw 18 June 2016

www.clivebates.com@clive_bates

What would good regulation look like?

1. Do nothing

Snus ban: worst policy ever

Pointless meddling

Ban flavours to make a successful alternative to smoking less attractive

What would good regulation look like?

1. Do nothing

2. Set product standards

Standards for devices

Mechanical risks

Thermal risks

Chemical risks

Information

Standards for liquids

Liquid standards

Containers

Information

Testing protocol

What would good regulation look like?

1. Do nothing

2. Set product standards

3. Quality assurance

What would good regulation look like?

1. Do nothing

2. Set product standards

3. Quality assurance

4. Owners decide vaping policy

Thousands of micro-decisions

1. A bar wants to have a vape night every Thursday

2. A bar wants to dedicate one room where vaping is permitted

3. In a town with three bars, one decides it will cater for vapers, two decide they

will not allow vaping

4. A bar manager decides on balance that his vaping customers prefer it and his

other clientele are not that bothered – he’d do better allowing it

5. A hotel wants to allow vaping in its rooms and in its bar, but not in its restaurant,

spa, and lobby

6. An office workplace decides to allow vaping breaks near the coffee machine to

save on wasted smoking break time and encourage smokers to quit by switching

7. A care home wants to allow an indoor vaping area to encourage its smoking

elderly residents to switch during the coming winter instead of going out in the

cold

8. A vape shop is trying to help people switch from smoking and wants to demo

products in the shop…

9. A shelter for homeless people allows it to make its clients welcome

10. A day centre for refugees allows it instead of smoking

The only purpose for which

power can be rightfully

exercised over any member of a

civilized community, against his

will, is to prevent harm to

others.

Thousands of micro-decisions

1. A bar wants to have a vape night every Thursday

2. A bar wants to dedicate one room where vaping is permitted

3. In a town with three bars, one decides it will cater for vapers, two decide they

will not allow vaping

4. A bar manager decides on balance that his vaping customers prefer it and his

other clientele are not that bothered – he’d do better allowing it

5. A hotel wants to allow vaping in its rooms and in its bar, but not in its restaurant,

spa, and lobby

6. An office workplace decides to allow vaping breaks near the coffee machine to

save on wasted smoking break time and encourage smokers to quit by switching

7. A care home wants to allow an indoor vaping area to encourage its smoking

elderly residents to switch during the coming winter instead of going out in the

cold

8. A vape shop is trying to help people switch from smoking and wants to demo

products in the shop…

9. A shelter for homeless people allows it to make its clients welcome

10. A day centre for refugees allows it instead of smoking

What would good regulation look like?

1. Do nothing

2. Set product standards

3. Quality assurance

4. Owners decide vaping policy

5. Allow advertising of adult product

✓ Ensure your ads are socially responsible

✓ Don’t target, feature or appeal to children

✓ Don’t confuse e-cigarettes with tobacco products

✓ Don’t make health or safety claims

✓ Don’t make smoking cessation claims

✓ Ensure you don’t mislead about product ingredients

✓ Don’t mislead about where products may be used

What would good regulation look like?

1. Do nothing

2. Set product standards

3. Quality assurance

4. Owners decide vaping policy

5. Allow advertising of adult product

6. Meaningful risk communication

This product contains

nicotine which is a highly

addictive substance. It is

not recommended for use

by non-smokers

Scare people away

Or encourage informed choice

This product is likely to be at least 95% safer

than smoking cigarettes

No product is completely safe, but use of this product is much less

harmful than smoking

Tax

1. Do nothing

2. Set product standards

3. Quality assurance

4. Owners decide vaping policy

5. Allow advertising of adult product

6. Meaningful risk communication

7. Tax to reflect risk / no tax

Differentiate taxation according to risk

Adopt a risk based tax philosophy

Smoking tobacco

Smoke free

Appropriate rate for e-cigarettes = zero

Tax rates for non-combustible tobacco and nicotine should not spread too wide

Substantial difference to reflect principle of proportionality and relative risk

Narrowed range covering all

combustible products

Strong case for zero-rating all smoke-free nicotine &

tobacco products

What would good regulation look like?

1. Do nothing

2. Set product standards

3. Quality assurance

4. Owners decide vaping policy

5. Allow advertising of adult product

6. Meaningful risk communication

7. Tax to reflect risk / no tax

8. Age restrictions

What would good regulation look like?

1. Do nothing

2. Set product standards

3. Quality assurance

4. Owners decide vaping policy

5. Allow advertising of adult product

6. Meaningful risk communication

7. Tax to reflect risk / no tax

8. Age restrictions

Innovation

What would good regulation look like

• “Do nothing” is superior to every regulatory scheme so far

• Regulation is there to benefit consumers not to please activists

• Regulators should be haunted by unintended consequences

• Regulation should focus on disease risk not ideological objectives

• Regulation should promote informed choice and innovation

• Proportionate and justifiable standards can help shape the market

• Regulators should mostly get out of the way – the market is working

www.clivebates.com@clive_bates

Thank you…