Who should win the Naismith Award?

By: Jared Kunze and Tyler Schatz

Blake Griffin Oklahoma

Ty LawsonNorth Carolina

•Big 12 Player of the Year•Unanimous 1st Team All-Big 12

PPG AST REB BLK STL21.9 2.3 14.3 1.3 1.2

•ACC Player of the Year•1st Team All-ACC

PPG AST REB BLK STL15.9 6.5 2.8 .1 2.0

Jeff TeagueWake Forest

Hasheem ThabeetConnecticut

•2nd Team All-ACC

PTS AST REB BLK STL19.1 3.5 3.4 .6 1.9

•Co-Big East Player of the Year•Big East Defensive Player of the Year•1st Team All-Big East

PTS AST REB BLK STL13.7 .5 10.9 4.6 .6

Jerel McNealMarquette

DaJuan BlairPittsburgh

•1st Team All-Big East

PTS AST REB BLK STL19.7 4.0 4.6 .6 2.1

•Co-Big East Player of the Year•1st Team All-Big East

PTS AST REB BLK STL15.6 1.1 12.2 1.0 1.5

James HardenArizona State

Tyreke EvansMemphis

•PAC 10 Player of the Year•Unanimous 1st Team All-PAC 10

PTS AST REB BLK STL20.8 4.2 5.5 .3 1.7

•Sporting News National Freshman of the Year•1st Team All-Conference USA

PTS AST REB BLK STL16.6 3.8 5.5 .8 2.1

Toney DouglasFlorida State

Tyler HansbroughNorth Carolina

•ACC Defensive Player of the Year•1st Team All-ACC

PTS AST REB BLK STL21.3 2.9 3.9 .4 1.9

•2008 Naismith Award Winner•Unanimous 1st Team All-ACC

PTS AST REB BLK STL21.4 3.5 3.4 .4 1.0

•Only statistically significant increase in probability of scoring 20+ points against RPI Top 50 teams is Toney Douglas

•RPI Top 50 .900•Non-RPI Top 50 .625

•2 Players had a statistically significant decrease in probability of scoring 20+: Blake Griffin and Hasheem Thabeet

•Griffin.833 to .385•Thabeet.250 to .000

Using a binomial probability simulation, find which player will make the most field goals per game in the national tournament. Assume that each player takes 15 shots per game. Use the Vs.RPI Top 50 field goal percentage of the players because the competition in the tournament will be tough.

Griffin- .592 Blair- .591Lawson- .542 Thabeet- .603Teague- .484 McNeal- .375Hansbrough- .462 Douglas- .436Evans- .363 Harden- .473

Elmore Index

• Player rating system based on the ideas of ESPN College Basketball announcer Len Elmore

• Elmore Index– Points/Game X5– Rebounds/Game X3– Assists/Game X2– Steals/Game X2– Blocks/Game X2– Team Wins X5

Continued..• Elmore Ratings:

1. Blake Griffin-297.02. Tyler Hansbrough-272.23. Tyreke Evans-267.94. DaJuan Blair-261.85. Toney Douglas-253.66. James Harden-252.97. Hasheem Thabeet-247.68. Jerel McNeal-245.79. Ty Lawson-244.610. Jeff Teague-237.7

Works Cited

• espn.com• Article: http://dailyorange.com/ (Title:

Oklahoma’s Griffin on inside track for Naismith award)

• Conference websites for ACC, Big East, Big 12, Pac 10, Conference USA