11

Who’s afraidWho’s afraidofof

climate change?climate change?

The Norwegian Research & Technology Forum

Carnegie Institution, Washington D.C.

October 5, 2004

Knut H. Alfsen, Statistics Norway and CICERO, Vice chair NORKLIMA

Paleoclimatologists and Paleoclimatologists and oceanographersoceanographers Rapid climate

change

Freshening of the Nordic Seas

Engineers and other Engineers and other technologiststechnologists Stabilising greenhouse

gas concentrations requires large reductions in emissions

The energy challenge: Meeting continuous growth in energy demand while reducing greenhouse gas emissions 0

200

400

600

800

1 000

2000 2050 2100

EJ

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

GtC

Energy low

Energy high

Emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

2000 2050 2100

EJ

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

GtC

Energy low

Energy high

Emissions

Th

e T

he

challen

ge

challen

ge

Solution: Technology – Solution: Technology – development and development and implementationimplementation

Social scientists: Robust climate change control policies within long-term and stable conditions are essential

NORKLIMANORKLIMA: Norway’s : Norway’s responseresponse

Research on the climate system and on

the expected effects of climate change in

our region

Inter- and multidisciplinary research

Emphasis on international co-operation

15 million $ per year for a ten-year period

NORKLIMA: A unified research NORKLIMA: A unified research program on climate change program on climate change and its impacts in our and its impacts in our northern regionnorthern region Some key issues:

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty Understanding rapid climate change Understanding processes in, and impacts of, the

ocean Understanding arctic climate change and its

impacts Impacts and interaction between climate change

and other societal driving forces at a local level

ConclusionConclusion

”If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there” (George Harrison)

Climate change science is a road sign currently showing:

Slow down

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!