Why are Short-term economic statistics important?

User views on Short-term economic statistics

UNECE Training Workshop “Short-term statistics and seasonal adjustment”

Astana, 14 – 17 March 2011

Petteri Baer, Marketing Manager, Statistics Finland

14 - 17 March 2011

Everybody acknowledges the importance of National Accounts

GDP“- Yes, of course”

Sure, we need something to measure the economic growth of the society

Sure, we need international comparability at the level of different economies

Sure, we need a denominator for the shares of different industries in the economy

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What about short-term statistics on economic development?

It may be another storyWhy?

No real supply provided by official statistics (?)Too many disappointments, when requesting good AND

timely statisticsSubstitutive indicators, guesstimates in wide useAnd if there IS some supply

Often not much information provided to potential users Misinterpretations about the consistency of the statistical

information due to necessary revisions

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More and more statistical publication takes place on the internet…

This is a very positive development

Availability and accessibility of official statistics has grown substantially

In the beginning of the year 2008

>500 Million internet hosts in the world!

This also increases pressure on timeliness

Internet hosts in the Worldin the beginning of each year

* Millions *

0.00002 0.03 0.716

147

433

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

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But note:– There are traps on the way!

Just putting your information on your web site does not automatically mean it is utilized

Even though your web information is utilized, it does not mean that your most important users make use of it

14 - 17 March 2011

All potentialusers

These guysare real users

Heavy user

Traps on the way, continued

You may cover only a tinyshare of your potential users- but not recognize it!

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Traps on the way, continued

Counting the popularity of your web site by “hits” may deceive you because

a substantial part of the “fabulous growth” comes from search engines checking if you have any new information

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Very often you do not really know, who your users are, when you provide services on the internet

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A Problem- as posed in a Pretoria Expert Group Seminar in 2003

“Statisticians like to talk to one another in mysterious ways and with a time clock which runs 10 times slower than everyone else's”

We have to communicate better!

We have to imagine ourselves into the position of the potential users of our information!

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Especially concerning Short-term economic statistics…

Timeliness is an issue of huge importance

Trade-off between timeliness and accuracy - always

GlobalizationModern communication tools

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The voice of a policy maker

Rob Wright, Deputy Minister of the Department of Finance of Canada, opening in May 2009 the

International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends in Ottawa, organized by UNSD and Statistics Canada

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Rob Wright: The role of Data in Public Policy Development “Process of policy development is lengthy

Research and analysis required to understand when and where policy change and reform are needed

Designing policyDeveloping consensus (political, public)

We rely on high quality and timely data throughout the process”

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Rob Wright: How can statisticians improve public policy? “Identify and close data gaps Priority to long term issues and trends But there is a need to be able to adapt to current

developments, if possibleIdentify turning points

Consult usersGovernment, private sector, researchers”

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The importance of turning points in the assessing development

In assessing economic development

In designing financial and monetary policy decisions

In making investment decisions

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The voice of a businessman and banker

Don Drummond, Chief Economist of Toronto Dominion Bank, Canada, opening the International Seminar, mentioned above:

"I would rather have no data than wrong data."

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Statistics Canada performed a stakeholder need assessment in 2008 (1)

…with the central users of Short-term economic statistics

A great deal of trust for Canadian Statistics was expressed in the services of Statistics Canada on STS

At the same time, the following improvements were required:

Better timeliness Additional questions to be

included in the Labour Force Survey

Better metadata and Improvements on the web

site and the search engine

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Statistics Canada performed a stakeholder need assessment in 2008 (2)

Other issues that came up in this consultation with the main stakeholders:

A worry that a NSO should not rush into short-term data collection without the usual testing of the instrument

Short term ad hoc measures will not be useful unless there is time series continuity

The agency should continue its longer-term investments in quality improve-ments and new data products

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Conclusions

Short-term economic statistics ARE important and their importance is growing

Not only as a service item But also for building up the image and the reputation of the

statistical agency as an important, accurate and timely information provider

Identifying turning points in the economic cycle is one of the most important functions

Availability and comparability of long term time series and seasonal adjustment of fixed term indices are of top importance

Keep your users well informed about your services Understand your audiences’ specific needs by better

communication

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