Why Nuclear Electricity for India?

V S ArunachalamCenter for Study of Science, Technology and Policy,

Bangalore, INDIA&

Department of Engineering & Public PolicyCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA

Growth of India’s Power Sector

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(Projected)• Serious Growth after 60’s• Generation 6th largest in world• Per capita consumption low• Close to 95% villages electrified

Ministry of Power, Government of India

The Status

Coal67166

Gas11840

Diesel1196

Hydro30135

Nuclear2720

Wind2488• Installed Capacity > 120 GW

• Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh

• Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh

• Coal dominant energy source (58%)

Ministry of Power, Government of India

India’s Future Growth• India needs sustained economic

growth > 8% to radically improve its HDI

• Growth in last few years ~ 5%-7%

• Growth hampered by infrastructure: electric power– Peak shortfall– Average shortfall– High T&D Losses: – Unscheduled black-outs,

especially in rural areas– Supply to agriculture sector

not metered and almost free

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.

Growth Areas• Present growth is skills or resource driven

(exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture)

• Future Growth will have to be on value addition & engineering

• Rural sector to play a major role(agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improving efficiency)

• Infrastructure building (roads, buildings, railroads etc.,)

• Manufacturing

The elasticity has to be greater than 1 for powering future growth

Elasticity and Electric Power Needs• Target economic growth ~ 8%

• Elasticity of electricity with GDP stabilizing at ~ 1.2

• Implications for future electric power requirements by 2015:– Capacity addition – Investments – Fuel mix– Pricing and Policies– T&D reforms

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Key GDP Growth Rate0.050.060.07

0.080.090.1

Required for 8% economic growth by 2015:Installed Capacity 250 GWGeneration 1500 billion kWhPer Capita Consumption 1000 kWh

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The Task Ahead • Need to add 135 GW in ten years

– 13,500 MW required per annum

– ~ One power plant per month

– China adds one per week !!

– Maximum added till now is 4,600 MW (One in four months)

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Total Capacity addition required

Fuel Supply: Options for Future • Coal

– Conventional– Gasification

• Natural Gas• Hydro• Nuclear

– PHWR + FB + AHWR– PLWR

• Wind– On-shore– Off-shore

• Biomass• Solar

– Photo voltaic– Concentrating Solar Power

Fuel Present In 2015Coal 67,166 MW ?Gas 11,840 MW ?Hydro 30,135 MW ?Nuclear 2,720 MW ?Wind 2,488 MW ?Biomass 1,000 MW ?Solar - ?TOTAL 115,035 MW 250,000 MW

King Coal ! • Reserves

– Proven 91 billion Tons– Indicated 116 billion

Tons– Inferred 37 billion Tons– TOTAL 245 billion Tons

• Coal reserves: > 250 years at present levels of consumption

• Concentrated in Eastern India

Madhya Pradesh

7%

Others13%

Jharkhand29%

Chattisgarh16%

West Bengal11%

Orissa24%

Indian Coal Quality

• High ash: 25%-45%

• Low sulfur < 0.5%

• Low energy content

• CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh

• Issues with coal:– Ash disposal: annual ash

generation > 90 million tons

– CO2 emissions

Heating Value(BTU/lb)

Ash Content(%)

Sulfur

(%)

Illinois # 6 10,900 11.00 3.25

Wyodak 11,960 5.97 0.40

WPC Utah 11,240 5.32 0.61

Indian Coal 6,500 25-45 <0.5

Coal: Future Scenarios

• Projections of coal demand (2015): – High growth : 580 MT– BAU scenario : 380 MT– Domestic production will not be

enough. Imports needed

• Issues:– Ash generation > 200 million Tons– CO2 emissions > 850 Million Tons– Particulate and NOx emissions

(presently not regulated)– Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail

transportation stagnation

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Coal Transport by Railways

Business as Usual

Accelerated growth scenario

India’s CO2 Emissions • India’s fossil based CO2 emissions in 2003:

– Coal 666 MMT– Petroleum 305 MMT– Natural Gas 53 MMT

• India’s CO2 emissions rapidly growing– Trebled during 1981-2001

• India and China presently not subject to mandatory cuts in CO2– However future may not be so

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India China Total

1980 1.64% 7.83% 9.47%

2003 5.60% 19.34% 24.93%

Share of global emissions

Options with Coal• Coal’s dominance will undoubtedly continue.

– Availability– Cheap

• The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints of quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues.

Installed Capacity of Coal (GW)

Coal Required (Million MT)

CO2 Emissions (Million MT)

Upper Case Coal still contributes 60% of capacity

~ 150 GW 580 MMT 850 MMT

Lower Case Aggressive deployment of nuclear and natural gas technologies

~ 120 GW 470 MMT 690 MMT

Coal scenarios for high economic growth ~ 8%

Hydro-Electricity

• Inferred potential > 120 GW

• Installed capacity 30 GW

• Most big projects are in North-Eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and J&K

• Problems of rehabilitation and resettlement with large projects

• Environmental issues

• Water sharing agreements with neighbors

National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India

Hydro-Electric Potential

State Capacity (MW)

Dulhasti J&K 390

Dhauliganga Stage - I * Uttaranchal 140

Teesta Stage V Sikkim 510

Loktak Downstream Manipur 90

Parbati-II Himachal Pradesh 800

Sewa-II J&K 120

Subansiri Lower Arunachal Pradesh 2000

Teesta Lower Dam-III West Bengal 132

Omkareshwar Madhya Pradesh 520

TOTAL 4702

Details of projects under construction

Projects awaiting clearance and government approval

2,570 MW

Projects at DPR and infrastructure development stage

11,620 MW

Projects under survey and investigation

11,000 MW

Ongoing and Planned Projects

Possible to add 10,000 MW by 2015

Natural Gas• Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide• Indian statistics (2004-05):

Consumption: > 31 BCM/yearPrimary uses:

Power 41%Fertilizer 32%Sponge Iron 4%Other 23%

Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking)

Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on price, of course)

Natural Gas Pipelines

Indore

- onwards to India

TAPS

TAPS(across water)

CENTGAS

- to Pakistan

Indore

Baroda333333333

KarachiGwadar

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444444444

Gas supplyConsumptioncenter

New Delhi

Multan

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Pakistan

Afghanistan

Iran

Turkmenistan

QatarIndia

Oman

Gas Authority of India Limited

India’s Gas Pipelines

Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)

Imports of Gas

• LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but prices remain high– 1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power– 1 BCM gas ~ .8 GW of powerthus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power

• Initial imports won’t necessarily add to elec. capacity– Will substitute naphtha in power plants and find other uses

as well • More than half the fertilizer feedstock is gas• Industry has already claimed the bulk of current LNG supplies

Biomass • India predominantly agricultural

country.• Annual production of agro-forest and

processing residues: 350 million tons• Power generation potential > 22,000

MW• Advantages:

– Decentralized generation: close to rural load centers.

– Technology reasonably well developed

– Environmentally friendly: No net CO2 emissions

Feedstock Examples Potential Installed

Agro-forest residues

Wood chips, mulberry, coconut shells

17,000 MW 50 MW

Processing residues

Rice husk, sugarcane bagasse

5,000 MW 1000 MW

Biomass Conversion Technologies• Gasifier-reciprocating engine

– Power plants of 5 kW – 100 kW possible– Diesel engine needs ~ 15%-20% for

ignition• Cost of electricity is high

– Gas engine can operate on 100% syngas– Overall efficiency ~ 20%– Largest gasifier 100 kW

• Fluidized bed combustion boilers– Rice husk and bagasse– 25%-30%– Power plants of 5 MW – 35 MW operating in

various sugar mills– Producing electricity is sweeter than sugar !!

50 kW biomass gasifier power plant in Karnataka

Biomass for Decentralized Rural Power

• Electric power requirement of typical Indian village < 100 kW– ~ 75% is irrigation pumps– Presently these get virtually free, un-metered grid supply of poor quality, few

hours a day• Locally available biomass can sustain a plant of 25 kW-100 kW

– Gasifier-reciprocating engine technology is fairly robust• Cost of generation reasonable

– $ 0.06-0.07 per kWh• BUT, still widespread dissemination not visible:

– Economics unviable due to low PLF– People not willing to pay when state gives free !– Loss of organic fertilizer on land

• Good potential from bagasse and husk:– Can expect to add 3000 MW by 2015.

Wind Energy• Gross potential : 45,000 MW

(assuming 1% land availability in potential areas)• Technical potential : 13,000

MW(assuming 20% grid penetration in potential areas)

• Rapid growth in installed capacity from 1990s

• India ranks 5th in the world– Present installed capacity ~ 3000

MW

• Site selection issues:– More from fiscal benefits than from

power– Many plants not operating– Low average load factor~13%

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World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)

Wind Speed Maps of Selected Countries

Denmark

In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US US

Off-shore Wind in Europe

• Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects.• Wind speeds higher• Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 – 40 km !

Country Capacity Depth (m) Distance from Shore (km)

Remarks

Denmark 160 MW 6 – 12 m 14 – 20 km Completed

UK 60 MW 4 – 8 m 2.3 km Completed

Denmark 23 MW 20 m 3.5 km Completed

Denmark 5 MW 3 – 5 m 6 km Completed

Sweden 10 MW 6 – 10 m 5 km Completed

Germany 1040 MW 30 m 43 – 50 km Planned

Netherlands 120 MW 20 – 24 m 23 km Planned

Germany 240 MW 20 m 34 km Planned

Ireland 520 MW 2 – 5 m 10 km Partly complete

India: Off Shore Wind Scenario

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Nuclear Power: The Present Status

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Indian Nuclear Program: The Present Status

• 12 PHWR & 2 BWR now under operation• 4 PHWR and 2 LWR under commission• 2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under

commission• Successful experiments with Fast Breeder Test

Reactor (FBTR)• Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for

500MWe under construction• Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) using

(Pu-Th) O2 MOX for 300MWe: advanced stage of design approval; construction soon to begin.

Indian Nuclear Program: The Constraints

• Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40 years

• Non-signatory to NPT: no access to global technologies, materials or services

• Slow growth of nuclear electric power: ~1000 MWe annually

• Major dependence on Pu and U233 MOX for fuel • Complex fuel technologies. Total capacity limited

Why Cooperate?

• India needs electric power now, more than ever, for human development and growth

• It must generate power from all energy sources

• Excessive and continued dependence on coal contributes to environmental degradation & global warming

• Limitations of renewable energy sources

Why Cooperate?

• Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power & Responsibility

• R&D: cooperation and Collaboration• Bilateral trade & economic issues• Sharing global energy resources• Environmental concerns• Shared vision: secular, democratic &

caring society

Why Cooperate?

Climate change is a greater threat to humanity than terrorism, and no less urgent.

---David King, Science Advisor to Prime Minister of UK

An Action Plan

Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogen technologies mature

• Minimizing wastage; energy conservation; Development of Energy Plan

• Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10 years)

• Investments in R&D to make renewable technologies efficient, sustainable &affordable

An Action Plan

• Strict enforcement of export controls of technologies, equipment and services

• Nuclear power reactors under international safeguards

• Collaboration in developing technologies for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power generation

• Participation in Gen. 4 R&D initiatives

Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015

Coal60.44%

Gas14.49%

Diesel0.48%

Nuclear5.06%

Hydro15.96%

Solar thermal0.40%

Biomass1.19%

Wind1.99%

Gas14.49%

Diesel0.48%

Nuclear14.60%

Hydro15.96%

Solar thermal0.40%

Biomass1.19%

Wind1.99%

Coal50.90%

Same Fuel Mix as now Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition

• Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons• Reduction in annual CO2 Emissions> 170 Million Tons

• ~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !

Primary energy consumption per capita

What If….India & China Were “Developed”by 2013?

• Expected Carbon Emission: 14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times present global emissions !!)

• CO2 concentration > 400 ppm• Temperature rise > 0.5 C

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OECD India China Others

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Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year)

US > 14,000

India 600

China 1300

Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh)

Target: 14,000 kWh by 2013

(Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)

What IfIndia & China Guzzle Oil?

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China 8

Present Number of Cars per 1000

• World Oil Consumption: 387 Million Barrels a Day• At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day

• Oil reserves deplete in 8 years !!• At Present 42 years

Target: 250 Cars per 1000

I saw God In the smile of the poorMahatma Gandhi

The cost of Power

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Residential Tariff

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