WILLIAM

DIRECTOR

CHAPPELL

DARPA/MTO

Distribution Statement A – Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The Intertwined History of DARPA and Moore’s LawDr. William Chappell

THE ELECTRONICS RESURGENCE INITIATIVE

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

THE ELECTRONICS RESURGENCE INITIATIVE

A Love Letter to Gordon MooreDr. William Chappell

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

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“Since my 1965 paper that ERI references, what has actually happened in the intervening 52 years is far beyond anything I contemplated.

- Gordon Moore, December 1, 2017

It is a testimony to the creativity of many engineers and scientists that the industry has surmounted apparent roadblocks that looked to be the end of transistor scaling.”

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

More R&D intensive than any other industry

Aircraft $121 Billion

Semiconductors $43 Billion

Automobiles $53 Billion

Source: 2016 U.S. International Trade Commission, SIA

Semiconductors play an outsized role in the U.S.

Economy

Top 3 manufactured U.S. export

Percent domestic sales of R&D

20%

17%

Semiconductors

Pharmaceuticals

Source: NSF Business Research and Development and Innovation Survey

Semiconductors andRelated Devices

Petroleum and Refineries

Pharmaceutical preparations

Aircraft

Iron and Steel Mills

223%

265%

167%

93%

59%

0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 200% 240% 280%

GDP Growth 85.3%

Source: BEA 2007, ASM 2011, SIA

U.S. Manufacturing Sector Growth in Real Value Added to GDP (1987-2011)

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

NAVAIR Public Release SPR 10-959 Distribution A: Approved for public release, distribution unlimited

Image: Flightglobal.com DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Electronics, April 19, 1965: Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits; Gordon Moore

VIII. DAY OF RECKONING

Clearly, we will be able to build such component-crammed equipment. Next, we ask under what circumstances we should do it. The total cost of making a particular system function must be minimized. To do so, we could amortize the engineering over several identical items, or evolve flexible techniques for the engineering of large functions so that no disproportionate expense need be borne by a particular array. Perhaps newly devised design automation procedures could translate from logic diagram to technological realization without any special engineering.

It may prove to be more economical to build large systems out of smaller functions, which are separately packaged and interconnected. The availability of large functions, combined with functional design and construction, should allow the manufacturer of large systems to design and construct a considerable variety of equipment both rapidly and economically.

P.3

Today“component-crammed equipment”

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Software

Hardware

>$500M

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0

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109

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High-performance processing units

Mobile processing units

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DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Our unique moment in timeThe cost of integrated circuit design is skyrocketing, limiting innovation

Foreign investments are distorting the market and driving a shift outside of the U.S.

Digital influence is so pervasive in our society that we can’t afford to have flaws in the digital foundation

We can’t manufacture within the DoD base at modern nodes

The continued move towards generalization and abstraction is stifling potential gains in hardware

Cost

Abstraction

Foreign Investments

Manufacturing

Rising Stakes

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Electronics, April 19, 1965: Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits; Gordon Moore

Materials & IntegrationAdding separately packaged novel materials and

using integration to provide specialized computing

VIII. DAY OF RECKONING

Clearly, we will be able to build such component-crammed equipment. Next, we ask under what circumstances we should do it. The total cost of making a particular system function must be minimized. To do so, we could amortize the engineering over several identical items, or evolve flexible techniques for the engineering of large functions so that no disproportionate expense need be borne by a particular array. Perhaps newly devised design automation procedures could translate from logic diagram to technological realization without any special engineering.

It may prove to be more economical to build large systems out of smaller functions, which are separately packaged and interconnected. The availability of large functions, combined with functional design and construction, should allow the manufacturer of large systems to design and construct a considerable variety of equipment both rapidly and economically.

P.3

Today“component-crammed equipment”

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

“It may prove to be more economical to build large systems out of smaller functions, which are separately packaged and interconnected.”

CHIPS

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Images: Stanford, MIT

CHIPS

3DSOC

Image: GLOBALFOUNDRIES

FRANCMTJ

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Electronics, April 19, 1965: Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits; Gordon Moore

VIII. DAY OF RECKONING

Clearly, we will be able to build such component-crammed equipment. Next, we ask under what circumstances we should do it. The total cost of making a particular system function must be minimized. To do so, we could amortize the engineering over several identical items, or evolve flexible techniques for the engineering of large functions so that no disproportionate expense need be borne by a particular array. Perhaps newly devised design automation procedures could translate from logic diagram to technological realization without any special engineering.

It may prove to be more economical to build large systems out of smaller functions, which are separately packaged and interconnected. The availability of large functions, combined with functional design and construction, should allow the manufacturer of large systems to design and construct a considerable variety of equipment both rapidly and economically.

Materials & IntegrationAdding separately packaged novel materials and

using integration to provide specialized computing

DesignQuickly enabling specialization

P.3

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Image: UC Berkeley

CRAFT

IDEA

POSH

“Perhaps newly devised design automation procedures could translate from logic diagram to technological realization without any special engineering”

CRAFT

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Electronics, April 19, 1965: Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits; Gordon Moore

ArchitecturesMaximizing specialized functions

DesignQuickly enabling specialization

VIII. DAY OF RECKONING

Clearly, we will be able to build such component-crammed equipment. Next, we ask under what circumstances we should do it. The total cost of making a particular system function must be minimized. To do so, we could amortize the engineering over several identical items, or evolve flexible techniques for the engineering of large functions so that no disproportionate expense need be borne by a particular array. Perhaps newly devised design automation procedures could translate from logic diagram to technological realization without any special engineering.

It may prove to be more economical to build large systems out of smaller functions, which are separately packaged and interconnected. The availability of large functions, combined with functional design and construction, should allow the manufacturer of large systems to design and construct a considerable variety of equipment both rapidly and economically.

Materials & IntegrationAdding separately packaged novel materials and

using integration to provide specialized computing

P.3

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Image: Drexel Univ.

HIVE

SDH

DSSoC

Array of sensorsLiDAR

RF

Audio

HIVE“…amortize the engineering over several identical items, or evolve flexible techniques for the engineering of large functions…”

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Even in the microwave area, structures included in the definition of integrated electronics will become increasingly important. The ability to make and assemble components small compared with the wavelengths involved will allow the use of lumped parameter design, at least at the lower frequencies. It is difficult to predict at the present time just how extensive the invasion of the microwave area by integrated electronics will be. The successful realization of such items as phased-array antennas, for example, using a multiplicity of integrated microwave power sources, could completely revolutionize radar.

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

SHIELD

< 100 um2

Art of the Small

L2M

In Field Learning

SC2

Learning Cooperation through Edge Intelligence

SSITH

Hardware as the Foundation of Security

N-ZERO

< 10 nW

No Power Operation Saliency

ReImagine

SensorReImagine

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

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DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

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Moore’s Inflection

The

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DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

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E R I ELECTRONICSRESURGENCE INITIATIVE

A More Specialized, Secure, and Heavily Automated Electronics Industry