William H. Frey The Brookings Institution Hispanics and the Changing Racial Demographics of the Intermountain West

William H. FreyThe Brookings Institution

Hispanics and the Changing Racial Demographics

of the Intermountain West

www.frey-demographer.org

2008: Greater Minority Turnout and Share of the Voter Population

“Fast-Growing” and “Slow-Growing” Purple States

Where did Minorities Win the Election for Obama?

Current Demographics and Polling in the Mountain West

Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS

Democratic Margins by Race

-17

77

2012

-12

91

3627

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians

2004 2008

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements

Number of Voters: 2004, 2008millions

7.6

2.8

14.0

9.7

3.6

16.1

0

10

20

Blacks Hispanics Asians

2004 2008

22%

25%53%

Under Age 18 Age 18+, Non Citizen Eligible Voters

Source: William H. Frey analysis CPS November 2008 Supplement

Eligible Voters as Share of Total Population:

* Non Hispanics

30%

66% 4%

45%42%

13%

Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians*

21%

77%

2%


Turnout Rates, 2004 and 2008

60

47 45

67 65

50 48

66

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


2004 2008

Source: Lopez and Taylor, Pew Hispanic Center, 2009

Turnout Rates, 18-29 Year Olds

50

3632

52

58

4143

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


2004 2008


2004-8 Growth: Eligible Voters and Voters

2.1

6.8

21.4 20.4

15.1

28.4

0.5

30.3

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


Eligible Voters Voters

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November supplements

2004 vs 2008 Comparisons

68 6576 73 79 76

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others

Population Eligible Voters Voters

2004

2008

2004

2008

2004

2008

6

10

9

15

12

12

34

14

16

17

18

21

24

32

37

40

47

9

20

21

0 10 20 30 40 50

Illinois

New York

New Jersey

Colorado

Florida

Nevada

Arizona

California

Texas

New Mexico

Voters Population

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2008 supplement

Hispanic Shares 2008 Populations, Voters

States With Largest Hispanic Share Populations

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Blue Red and Purple States, 2008

Solid Blue

Solid Red

Purple-Dem

Purple-Rep


Fast-Growing Purple States, 2008

Purple-Dem

Purple-Rep

All Other


Slow-Growing Purple States, 2008

Purple-Dem

Purple-Rep

All Other

75.2

0.8

7.5

14.5

Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Others*

88.5

0.8

7.81.7

Source: William H. Frey analysis CPS November 2008 supplement

2008 Voter Profiles of State Groupings

* Non Hispanics

Fast Growing Purple Solid Red

72.5

1.68.3

16.1

72.9

5.1

10.7

9.8

Slow Growing Purple Solid Blue


“Fast-Growing” vs “Slow-Growing”

Purple State Growth, 2004-8

7.8

36.8

28.0

41.8

8.3 8.3

-1.7

12.6

-505

101520253035404550

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians,Other

Fast Growing Slow Growing

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements

Nevada, New Mexico Voters: 2004, 2008

8073

56 55

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2008 2004 2008


Nevada New Mexico


Nevada – Democratic Margins

-3-12

73

2112

-8

89

54

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

Total Whites Blacks Hispanics

2004 2008


New Mexico – Democratic Margins

-1

-13

1215

-14

39

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Total Whites Hispanics

2004 2008


Florida, Virginia Voters: 2004, 2008

76 7181 74

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2008 2004 2008


VirginiaFlorida


Florida – Democratic Margins

-5-15

73

-12

3

-14

92

15

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100


2004 2008


Virginia – Democratic Margins

-8

-36

75

6

-21

84

31

-50-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100


2004 2008


Ohio, Pennsylvania Voters: 2004, 2008

86 85 89 87

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2008 2004 2008


PennsylvaniaOhio


Ohio – Democratic Margins

-2-12

68

5

-6

95

-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

Total Whites Blacks

2004 2008


Pennsylvania – Democratic Margins

2

-9

68

44

10

-3

90

44

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100


2004 2008

Source: William H. Frey

Where Minorities Won for Democrats

2004 - Kerry Took 20 States 10 states-whites went Democratic (62 electoral college) 10 states-minorities won for

Dems (190 electoral college)

2008 - Obama Took 29 States 19 states-whites went

Democratic (223 electoral college) 10 states-minorities won for

Dems (142 electoral college)


2004 Blue States: Won by Whites and Minorities


2008 Blue States: Won by Whites and Minorities

2010 Population and Eligible Voters by Race-Ethnicity: US and Mountain West

65 73 6574

16 1024

16

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total Pop Eligible Voters Total Pop Eligible Voters

Whites Blacks Asians Others Hispanics

USA Mountain West

Total Population by Race-Ethnicity, 2010:

Six Mountain West States

4455 57

7384 87

4132 24 19 10 10

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

NewMexico

Arizona Nevada Colorado Utah Idaho


Eligible Voters by Race-Ethnicity, 2010:

Six Mountain West States

5367 69

81 90 92

3321 14 12 5 5

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

NewMexico

Arizona Nevada Colorado Utah Idaho


Party Affiliation: US Registered Latino Voters

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

y2002 y2004 y2006 y2008 y2010

Democrat Republican

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, "Latinos and the 2010 Elections" October 5, 2010

(Registered Latinos)

Party with More Concern for Hispanics

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

y2002 y2004 y2006 y2008 y2010

Democrat Republican

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, "Latinos and the 2010 Elections" October 5, 2010

(Registered Latinos)

Right Direction/Wrong Track?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Whites Hispanics Whites Hispanics

Right Wrong

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

Country State

(Adults.6 MT West States)

Country: Right Direction Minus Wrong Track

Whites and Hispanics - MT West States

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico

Whites Hispanics

State: Right Direction Minus Wrong Track Whites and Hispanics - MT West States

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10


Whites Hispanics

Obama Favorability

5535

11

12

8

9

2644

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Unfavorable Neutral/ NA Favorable Very Favorable


(Adults: 6 MT West States)

Obama: Favorable Minus Unfavorable


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30


Whites Hispanics

Bush Favorability

44 51

1517

1615

25 17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics




Palin Favorability

47 52

1824

1110

2414

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics



(Adsult: 6 MT West States)

Congressional Democrat Favorability

5737

18

23

13

17

1223

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics




Congressional Democrats: Favorable Minus Unfavorable


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20


Whites Hispanics

Congressional Republican Favorability

42 47

26 23

17 16

15 14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics




Congressional Republicans: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0


Whites Hispanics

State Democrat Favorability

4836

24

22

1319

15 23

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics



(Adults 6 MT West States)

State Democrats: Favorable Minus Unfavorable


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30


Whites Hispanics

State Republican Favorability

34 42

2524

1716

24 18

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics




State Republicans: Favorable Minus Unfavorable


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


Whites Hispanics

Priority Issues for Whites


1 57% Jobs/Econ Growth

2 50% Schools

3 49% Federal Govt Spending

4 49% Illegal Immigrants

5 43% Crime and Drugs

(percent ranking issue as extremely important)

Priority Issues for Hispanics


1 63% Jobs/Econ Growth

2 63% Schools

3 59% Crime and Drugs

4 48% Environment

5 47% Health Care

(percent ranking issue as extremely important)

Obama Health Care Plan

5031

11

12

7

7

15

25

17 25

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Strong Oppose Oppose DK/ Ref Support Strong Support


Financial Reform

2617

16

11

10

12

1929

29 31

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Strong Oppose Oppose DK/ Ref Support Strong Support


Income Taxes

41 42

54 51

4 34

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Too High About Right Don't Pay/ DK Too Low


Arizona Immigration Law

18 12

50

28

29

57

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Not Far Enough About Right Goes Too Far


AZ Immigration Law: Goes Too FarWhites and Hispanics - MT West States

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


Whites Hispanics

Stop Illegal Immigration FlowsFederal Involvement Level?

7768

1719

6 13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

More Same/ DK Less


Illegal Flows: Need More Federal InvolvementWhites and Hispanics - MT West States

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Whites Hispanics

Deal with Illegals Here: Federal Involvement Level?

7258

19

22

920

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

More Same/ DK Less


Deal with Illegals Here: State Involvement Level?

6652

22

26

1222

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

More Same/ DK Less


Illegals Here : Need More State InvolvementWhites and Hispanics - MT West States

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


Whites Hispanics

Immigrants: Strength vs Burden

30

42

28

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Whites HispanicsStrength Burden


Illegals: Pathway vs No Amnesty

35

46

31

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Whites HispanicsPathway No Amnesty


Documents

William H. Frey The Brookings Institution Hispanics and the Changing Racial Demographics of the Intermountain West