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Winter T-PARC Update

Yucheng Song IMSG at EMC/NCEP/NOAAZoltan Toth EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA

Updated on July 7, 2008

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tparc

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• Dave Emmitt Simpson Weather Assoc.

• Chris Doyle Meteorological Service of Canada

• Alexander Kats Roshydromet, Russia

• Gary Wick ESRL/NOAA, CO

• David Richardson ECMWF

WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM

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Overview

• Platforms planned

• Decision making process

• Real time parallel at NCEP

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• NOAA and NASA satellites• G-lV out of Japan (Yokota AFB), ~150 hrs in Jan 10- Feb 28

• G-IV 45,000 feet high, centering around 00z• C-130 – covering the mid Pacific over the same time period

(USAF)• C-130 30,000 feet high, centering around 00z

• P3 (or other asset) • East Pacific or western US (contributions by NRL and SMA)

• Enhanced Siberian network• Roshydromet / NOAA and/or NRL contribution• Japanese contribution

• Other possible platforms (see T-PARC plan)• Rapid scan satellite data (Nakazawa-San)

• Contributions from Japan • Tibetan Plateau

• Asian THORPEX community contribution

PROPOSED OBSERVING PLATFORMS

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Day 3-4

RAWIN

Russia

D 2-3

G-IV

D 1-2

C-130

G-IV

D-1

P-3

CONUS

VR

Arctic

VR Day 5-6RAWIN

Tibet

Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and US continents

PROPOSED OBSERVING PLATFORMS

WHEN? JAN – MARCH 2009 !!

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Platforms planned• G-IV Stationed in Japan (likely Yokota AFB)(Japan contacts: Yoshio Asuma and Tetsuo Nakazawa )Stage 1: Jan 10-Feb 28• Can reach 45,000 feet high, centered on 00Z UTC• Maximum range:3800 nm• Maximum duration: 8 hrs 45 mins • Contribution from NWS WSR program• Backbone of the whole program• Requested 150 flight hours 360 dropsondes• Six of the missions will recover at other stations such as Guam, OkinawaStage 2: March 1-March 31• Base out of Honolulu approximately 110hrs

• ISSUES:• Air traffic control: (resolved)• 00Z or 12Z (local time in Japan would be 3:30AM for 00Z)• Yokota AFB, Japan: (resolved) (AOC contacts: Jack Parrish and Michele Finn)

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G-IV Stationed in Japan

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C-130C-130 out of Anchorage (USAF)

– Can reach 35,000 feet high, centered on 00Z UTC– Maximum range: 1800nmi – Maximum duration: 10 hrs– Part of NCEP WSR program

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Russia Roshydromet

• Alexander Kats

• Nina Zaitseva

• Dr. Ivanov (Director of CAO)

• Dr. Mikhail D. Tsyroulnikov ISSUES: Roshydromet could not pay for the extra sondes ($130K est.)1. Proposal for WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program (VCP) funding (proved) about 25-30K2. $50K from Canada (contact Chris Doyle, contribution from EC and DND)3. Pending proposal with Steve Swadley/Rolf Langland from NRL4. Possible contributions from Japan (Contact: Yoshio Asuma)

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Enhanced Siberian network

-Additional 06 and 18 UTC observations from the subset of about 40 designated operational stations about 6 weeks

- Space and time distribution (and may be amount of additional observations on each station) will be uneven depending from the weather conditions.

- They will be carried out during 10-15 24-h intensive observing periods (IOPs) with 6-hrs soundings in some sensitive areas to be determined during the campaign depending from the weather conditions

- Depending on geographical location of sensitive area, during each IOP about 20 of the available 40 stations will be requested (in 18-24 hrs prior to the IOP beginning).

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Continued- Expected maximum total amount of additional soundings during the

campaign is 15 (IOP) x 20 (sites) x 2 (extra soundings) ~ 600 soundings.

- Taking into account possible uneven distribution of sounding it is necessary to have on each stations consumables for some 25 additional soundings to avoid running out of consumables at any of the stations before the end of the campaign.

- This gives us maximum amount of additional consumables to be distributed for as many as 25 (soundings) x 40 (sites) ~ 1000 soundings. Remaining consumables will be used for the regular soundings after the end of the campaign.

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Additional stations that we suggested

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Stations requested by winter T-PARC – 35 stations31369 31538 31736 30554 23955 29612 29698 32389 32540 25913 23330 28275 28698 31873 31977 32150 20674 29572 29862 28661 25428 21824 21946 24125 24266 24343 24641 24688 24726 24944 24959 25123 25400 30054 31004

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ONR P-3

• Use DWL on P3 to profile winds below & at flight level

The ELDORA radar is provided by NCAR. The P3DWL is provided by ONR. The two possible locations for the P3DWL are noted as (1) or (2).

Contacts:

Dave Emmitt

Simpson Weather Associates

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P3DWL data Description

• Nominal vertical domain: 0 – 6 km (assumes flight level ~ 6.5 km)

Line-of-sight products • Nominal spacing between profiles: 2 km (500m with 90 deg

sector processing)

• Vertical resolution:~ 50 meters

• Accuracy U and V components:.05 m/s (assuming homogeneous wind field)

• Accuracy W component:.1 m/s

• Additional data collection capabilities: All angles within ±30 degrees of nadir All angles within ±30 degrees of flight path

• DWL wind profiles: Buffer format, real time processing, single profile file size about 10 KB

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Tibetan E-Plateau observation

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Decision MakingCommunication setup (webpage and emails)

Identify High impact weather (HIW) events Inputs from US field offices, research interest groups,

Canada, Mexico in advance Sensitive Area Calculations (SACs)

Run NCEP ETKF targeting software DTS (ECMWF/UK MET OFFICE/METER FRANCE) NRL targeting and others?

Select tracks and stations Fixed tracks for easier air traffic control? Flexible tracks (UAV)? Siberia/Tibet Plateau stations

Decisions sent out 18-36 hours ahead of time Flexibility of change with 24 hours notification

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DTS targeting system – an example

Shaded area shows Sensitive Area

Box is the forecast area (verification area)

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PREVIEW T-PARC DTS targeting system

1. Multiple Data Targeting Display – convenient for technique comparison

2. Easier to select area of interests

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Nice Deterministic Forecast Products

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Plans for real time parallel at NCEP

• Data denial experiment– T126L64 control and operational experiments

• Impact: – Conventional metrological fields, differences display

alongside the operational forecast and analysis

• Verification: – Post field program period– Legacy programs (Fit to obs, fit to analysis, scores)

KEY ISSUE: T-PARC identity BUFR headers

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Contribution from Mexico

• Extra-Rawinsondes (if expendable material is provided)

• Ensemble evaluation for the Mexican region

• At least one meteorologist volunteering in operational activities

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Canada and Mexico

Contacts:

• Chris Doyle (Canada)• Ricardo Prieto González (Mexico)

<rprieto@tlaloc.imta.mx>

• Juan M. Caballero (Mexico)jmcaballero@semar.gob.mx

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Background Info

• Upcoming Winter T-PARC meeting on October 8-10, 2008

• Other potential platforms – Not totally committed yet

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Platform Manned aircraft with Wind Lidar/dropsonde capability (ONR P3)

Base West Coast

Capabilities: Duration/length in flight Altitude

Low altitude -2500nm or 9.5hrs, High altitude – 3800nm 11.5hrs27000 feet (ceiling)

Observation types Temperature, humidity, wind speed

Cost of deployment 8k / flight hour, plus ferry (15 hrs)

Number of flights 200K US $ plan:2 wks 1-3 flights (depending on ferry and dropsonde cost sharing)

400K US $ plan:One month3-5 flights(depending on ferry and dropsonde cost sharing)

Potential collaborators/sponsors/funding

NOAA Wind Lidar Working Group (Wayman Baker)Simpson Weather Associates (Dave Emmitt – may bring Lidar equipment at no cost to program)ONRSharing ferry etc cost may be possible

Advantages Dropsondes capability

Disadvantages No as high as G-IV, some severe weather conditions may limit the manned flights

P3 Platform

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P3DWL

The MLX-16 coherent Doppler lidar built by LMCT for the US Army (ARL).

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Scanner

Cylindrical scanner Shown here is the scanneras mounted in the CIRPASTwin Otter. The white fairing is used to reduce aerodynamic drag

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Two Types of NOAA Satellite Programs

Geostationary Satellites Polar Orbiting Satellites

Fairbanks,

Wallops,Virginia

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

(GOES)

Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

(POES)

Each satellite covers the entire Earth twice per day

Continuously monitors the Western Hemisphere

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Orbit Path

540 MiEquator

N

S

SubsatellitePoint

Equator22,240 Mi

• Each orbit is 102 minutes• Global coverage every 12 hours with 1 satellite• Images are global and include the poles• Information is used for long-term weather

forecasting and climate monitoring

• Same geographic image over time• Full image every 30 minutes• Northern Hemisphere imaged every 15

minutes• Usable images between 60°N and 60°S• Information is used for short-term weather

forecasting and severe storm warning/tracking

Fairbanks,Alaska

Data Acquisition SiteWallops, Virginia

Wallops,Virginia

Data Acquisition

Sites

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Expected stations by the end of 2009

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Chinese participation

• CMA contact person: Dehui Chen

chendh@cma.gov.cn• Jing Chen

chenj@cma.gov.cn

CAMS – Chinese Academy for Meter. Sci.

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TIBET OBSERVATION NETWORK

– IMPORTANCE OF TIBET PLATEAU– Origin of many storm systems in the Northern Hemisphere– Well known important diabatic heating and dynamic forcing effects– Strong influence on East Asia jet stream and downstream weather

• HOW THE DATA WILL CONTRIBUTE– Look for possible ways to take adaptive RAOB observations

a. Fixed intensive observation periods (Jan 09 – Mar 09)

b. Adaptive observing (ETKF or other methods)- Optimize Chinese observational network- Fill data gap in the network- Assimilate data into different DA systems

• PROGRESS– GPS sondes, profilers and an array of surface mesoscale networks– Which are expected to leave in place after the field phase of T-PARC

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NOAA THORPEX POTENTIAL OBSERVATION SYSTEM ENHANCEMENT FOR WINTER T-PARC (JAN 09 – MAR 09)

Platform NASA Global Hawk

Base Dryden, CA (65 miles northeast of LA) Edwards AFB

Duration/Altitude 31 hours / 65,000 feet

Maximum range 11,000+nmi

Observation types Temperature, humidity, wind speed

Dimensions Wingspan 116.2ft 44.4ft (L) 15.2ft(H) 4.8ft(W)

Payload > 1500 lb

Potential collaborators/sponsors/funding

NOAA UAS program(Gary Wick, Todd Jacobs)

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NASA Global HAWK dimensions and payload compartments

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Global Hawk

Contacts:NOAA • Gary Wick PSD/ESRL/NOAA• Todd Jacobs NOAA

NASA• David Fratello DFRC Systems engineer• Chris Naftel DFRC Project Manager• Phillip Hall OMAO/NASAISSUES: • Air traffic control• Lidar and dropsonde capability?

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Potential for High Altitude UAS Availability

• NOAA UAS program actively pursuing a joint demonstration in March 2009– Would utilize NASA Global Hawk with operations from NASA

Dryden– Plans for completion of a dropsonde system by March 1– Potential for flights joint with studies of “atmospheric rivers”

• Schedule is very challenging but not impossible• Primary hurdles

– NOAA UAS program not yet funded– No formal commitment of aircraft availability from NASA– Potential FAA limitations on release of dropsondes from

unmanned aircraft

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20 hr15 hr

Global Hawk Endurance From NASA Dryden

25 hr

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