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WMO WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMODemonstration Project (WMO--TLFDP)TLFDP)
Concept and progressConcept and progress
Yu Yu HuiHui (余晖)(余晖)Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMAShanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA
Backgrounds and objectivesImplementation tasks and organizationProgressCollaboration with the THORPEX TCEFPFuture plan
OutlineOutline
Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009A component of the Shanghai MHEWS projectImplementing duration: 2010-20122010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
BackgroundsBackgrounds
To enhance the ability of forecasters to issue timely and accurate typhoon forecasts and strengthen the ability of decision-makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecastsTo demonstrate the performance of the most advanced typhoon forecasting technique in the worldTo assess the WMO-TLFDP’s impacts on enhancing the typhoon forecast service as well as its social and economic benefitsTo promote the implementation of the most up to date forecast technique for landfall typhoons in typhoon-affected Members of WMOTo enhance the capability of forecasting typhoon landfall for the “Shanghai MHEWS” to enable SMS to provide enhanced typhoon forecast service during Shanghai Expo 2010
ObjectivesObjectives
Implementation tasksImplementation tasks
Collection of realCollection of real--time forecast datatime forecast data
Verification of forecastsVerification of forecasts
Dissemination of productsDissemination of products
Benefit AssessmentBenefit Assessment
Forecast integration techniques and Forecast integration techniques and reliability analysesreliability analyses
OrganizationOrganization
International Scientific Steering CommitteeInternational Scientific Steering Committee
Project Coordination GroupProject Coordination Group
East China Regional Steering CommitteeEast China Regional Steering Committee
Team 1Team 1Data collection and Data collection and
disseminationdissemination
Team 2Team 2Forecast verificationForecast verification
Team 3Team 3Forecast integrationForecast integration
Team 4Team 4Benefit assessmentBenefit assessment
Co-chairs: Prof. Lianshou CHENDr. Xu TANG
Team leaders:Dr. Binke ZHAO Dr. Hui YU
Dr. Barbara BROWNMr. Xiaofeng WANGMr. Zhiqiang CHEN
Ms. Liying TAOMr. L.S. LEE
Lead agencies
Coordination departments
Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMAShanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA
East China RMC/CMAEast China RMC/CMA
RSMC Tokyo RSMC Tokyo –– Typhoon CenterTyphoon Center
WWRP/WMOWWRP/WMO
TCP/WMOTCP/WMO
PWS/WMOPWS/WMO
OrganizationOrganization
ProgressProgress
• Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
• Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009• A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project• Implementing duration: 2010-2012• 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off • Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical
Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Real time data collectionProducts disseminationForecast evaluation and reliability analysesBenefit assessmentTraining and demonstration
List of typhoon forecast products List of typhoon forecast products providers (providers (TFPPsTFPPs))
Full name AbbreviationAbbreviation Ways of contribution
1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWFECMWF GTS, FTP and via TIGGE
2 Hong Kong Observatory HKOHKO GTS and FTP
3 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration ITMMITMM FTP and Intranet of
CMA
4 Japan Meteorological Agency JMAJMA GTS, FTP and via TIGGE
5 Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the United States JTWCJTWC GTS
6 Korea Meteorological Administration KMAKMA GTS and via TIGGE
7 Meteorological Service of Canada MSCMSC Via TIGGE
8 National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United States NCEPNCEP Via TIGGE
9 National Hurricane Center of the United States NHCNHC FTP
10 National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration NMC/CMANMC/CMA GTS, FTP, Intranet of
CMA and via TIGGE
11 East China Regional Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration ECRMCECRMC FTP
12 RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center of the World Meteorological Organization RSMC TokyoRSMC Tokyo GTS
13 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration STISTI FTP, Intranet of CMA
and via TIGGE
Type TFPP Track Intensity Wind Radii
2-D griddedsurface
wind
2-D gridded
precipitation
3-D griddedmodel output
Official FCST
HKOJTWCKMA
NMC/CMARSMC Tokyo
YYYYY
YYYYY
Y
Y (A)Y (A)
Global model
ECMWFJMA
NMC/CMAYY
YY
YYY
YYY
YYY
Regional model
STIITMM
RMCEC
YY
YY
YYY
YYY
Y
Y
Ensemble prediction
ECMWFJMAKMAMSCNCEP
NMC/CMASTI
YYYYYYY
YYYYYYY
Cconsensusprediction
STI Y
Statistical prediction
HKONHC/USA
STI Y YY (P)
Y
List of products collected in real timeList of products collected in real time
A: only analyses available; P: probability
Data ArchivingData Archiving
All the related data and products of named tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived by SMSAvailable to research, training and capacity-building activities
ProgressProgress
• Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
• Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009• A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project• Implementing duration: 2010-2012• 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off • Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical
Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Real time data collectionProducts disseminationForecast evaluation and reliability analysesBenefit assessmentTraining and demonstration
Operational website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning CenterOperational website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center---- a component of Shanghai MHEWSa component of Shanghai MHEWS
In ChineseReleased in July 2010
In support of EXPO2010
HKO QMORPH ProductSTI/CMA TC Size Forecast Product
MICAPS TC PlugMICAPS TC Plug--inin
A tool for browsing and analyzing tropical cyclone information together with other data from multiple sources.In support of EXPO2010
Website of the project Website of the project (http://(http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cntlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn))
Released in June, 2011Released in June, 2011
FY-2E Satellite imagesFY-2E Satellite images
Track & intensity forecast and real time verificationTrack & intensity forecast and real time verification
Gridded model outputGridded model output High winds striking prob.High winds striking prob.
Striking probability(EPS and super-ensemble)Striking probability(EPS and super-ensemble)Sample Sample
imagesimages
ProgressProgress
• Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
• Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009• A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project• Implementing duration: 2010-2012• 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off • Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical
Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Real time data collectionProducts disseminationForecast verification and reliability analysesTraining and demonstrationBenefit assessment
Operational TC forecast verification practice Operational TC forecast verification practice in the western North Pacific regionin the western North Pacific region
The current operational status of TC forecast verification is analyzed on the basis of an e-mail survey covering all the Members of UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon CommitteeMain conclusions are
Significant efforts have been focused on the verification of TC forecast guidance by operational forecast agencies in the regionOnly a few verification products are available for the probabilistic forecasts from EPSVerification of TC precipitation and high wind forecasts are also lacking sufficient attention in the region
New attempts by TLFDPNew attempts by TLFDPTrack and landfall forecastTrack and landfall forecast
• Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
• Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009• A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project• Implementing duration: 2010-2012• 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off • Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical
Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Relative forecast skill of TC moving speed and directionRelative forecast skill of TC moving speed and directionHit rate of landfallHit rate of landfallRelation between track forecast error and guiding flowRelation between track forecast error and guiding flow
Method CONS_MODEL CMA_GSM GRAPES-TCM ITMM_TMM JMA_GSM ECMWF_GSM
Average Error(unit:km)
44.5 59.2 99.6 128.6 47.3 51.8
SSR: R (unit:%) 66.7% 72.2% 83.3% 66.7% 72.2% 61.1%
SFR: F (unit:%) 85.71% 92.9% 93.8% 80.0% 100% 91.7%
Evaluation form of TC landing point forecast in 2010-2011 (China)
Relation between track forecast error and guiding flowRelation between track forecast error and guiding flow
New attempts by TLFDPNew attempts by TLFDPIntensity forecastIntensity forecast
Skill scoreCategory skill scoreJoint charts of POD and FARTrend analysesRelation between intensity forecast error and initial intensity error of NWP modelsBS, PRS, and ranking analyses of EPS forecasts
165 149 132 113 74 57
12h 24h 36h 48h 60h 72h0
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.12
0.15
0.18
0.21
0.24
0.27
0.3
Forecast interval (h)
Skill
score
s
TCSP XSQD JAPN PLSC IPAA IWAA PGTW BABJ
Skill scores versus chance of eight TC intensity forecast techniques
Reliability analyses based on initial Reliability analyses based on initial intensity error of NWP modelintensity error of NWP model
New attempts by TLFDPNew attempts by TLFDPPrecipitation forecastPrecipitation forecast
• Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
• Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009
• A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project
• Implementing duration: 2010-2012
• 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off
• Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
VariablesResoluti
on of the Model
Verified Region Verification Indices Observation
TMP/P850RH/P700HGT/P500WIND/P500
15km & 9km Model region MODE, DOE, RMSE,
MAE, ME, CORRAnalyses field of the
model
2m TMP10m WIND 9km Model region MODE, DOE, RMSE,
MAE, ME, CORRAnalyses field of the
model
Precipitation 9km
Model region MODE, DOE, RMSE, MAE, ME, CORR
A combination of TRMM precipitation and surface observation
ECR & Individual provinces
DOE, RMSE, MAE, ME, CORR , ETS, TS, TSS, Accuracy, POD, FAR, MAR
Surface observation
List of realList of real--time MET products for SMBtime MET products for SMB--WARMSWARMS
MODE products for 24h precipitation initialized at 00UTC August 31 2010. (a)forecast of SMB-WARMS; (b)Observation.
ο
24h precipitation from (a) SMB-WARMS and (b) MICAPS, initialized at 12UTC August 29 2011
An evaluation system for tropical An evaluation system for tropical cyclone forecastcyclone forecast
Based on the experiences gained through the implementation of TLFDP and a survey on current operational status of TC forecast verification in the western North Pacific region, an evaluation system for TC forecast is proposed and will act as a guideline for future work of TLFDP.
ProgressProgress
• Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
• Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009• A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project• Implementing duration: 2010-2012• 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off • Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical
Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Real time data collectionProducts disseminationForecast evaluation and reliability analysesTraining and demonstrationBenefit assessment
• June 2010, Shanghai• 11 lecturers from 9 institutions• Trainees: 20 forecasters working
for the World Expo 2010
• June 2012, Shanghai• 11 lecturers from 9 institutions• Trainees: 40 forecasters
Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center (STWC)Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center (STWC)
– A component of Shanghai Multi Hazard Early Warning System– Monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in North West Pacific,
especially those with potential to affect Eastern China Region (ECR) – Issue tropical cyclone warnings for ECR
– A component of Shanghai Multi Hazard Early Warning System– Monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in North West Pacific,
especially those with potential to affect Eastern China Region (ECR) – Issue tropical cyclone warnings for ECR
WMO-TLFDP HomepageWMOWMO--TLFDP HomepageTLFDP HomepageOperational website of STWCOperational website of Operational website of STWCSTWC
Data CollectionData CollectionData Collection
VerificationVerificationVerification
ProgressProgress
• Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
• Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009• A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project• Implementing duration: 2010-2012• 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off • Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical
Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
Real time data collectionProducts disseminationForecast evaluation and reliability analysesTraining and demonstrationBenefit assessment
Benefit assessmentBenefit assessment
A series of surveys were carried out to assess the benefit of the WMO-TLFDPThe survey’s objects were divided into three groups: public users, industrial and special users and meteorological forecastersThe objective of the public user survey is to gauge the public’s opinions on the accuracy of weather forecasts and typhoon warnings issued by SMSThe objective of the forecaster survey is to gauge the forecaster’s opinions on the typhoon forecasting and on the typhoon objective techniques during the project period
0
1 0
20
30
40
50
60
Synopti cAnal ysi s
Landfal l i ngPoi nt
Landfal l i ngTi me
I ntensi tyChange
Great Wi ndZone
Quanti ty ofthe
Rai nstorm
Rai nstormattacki ng
Zone
Forecasters’ need: the most troubling issue in TC forecasting
From TCEFP to TLFDPTC EPS products in CXML formatVerification information on TC EPS productsTraining (to help forecasters prepared to use TC EPS products)
From TCEFP to TLFDPTC EPS products in CXML formatVerification information on TC EPS productsTraining (to help forecasters prepared to use TC EPS products)
Collaboration with the THORPEX NW Pacific Collaboration with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP
From TLFDP to TCEFPIdeas or requirements on user-oriented TC EPS productsFeedbacks on how and to what extent TC EPS products benefit the operational forecast and public serviceTraining (to popularize the experience of using TC EPS products to broader users)
From TLFDP to TCEFPIdeas or requirements on user-oriented TC EPS productsFeedbacks on how and to what extent TC EPS products benefit the operational forecast and public serviceTraining (to popularize the experience of using TC EPS products to broader users)
Training on EPS and popularization Training on EPS and popularization of the experienceof the experience
Dr. Tetsuo Nakazawa, June 2010, ShanghaiDr. Jing Chen, June 2012, ShanghaiDr. Hui Yu, November 2010, La Reunion
A selective consensus method for track A selective consensus method for track forecast based on forecast based on EPSsEPSs
Evaluation of intensity forecasts Evaluation of intensity forecasts from from EPSsEPSs
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Brie
r Sco
re
Forecast Hour (h)
NMC/CMA STI KMA JMAECMWF MSC NCEP
(a) Brier score of the seven TIGGE ensemble prediction systems in 2010; (b) The same as (a) but with initial correction; (c) Improvements in Brier score by initial correction.
– Real-time TC forecast products are collected through various ways from a total of 13 agencies, including the TIGGE TC EPS productsfrom 7 agencies.
– A real time verification platform of TC forecast has been set up.– An evaluation system for TC forecast has been set up.– A variety of TC forecast and verification products are disseminated
through the WMO-TLFDP website (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn).– A new landfall typhoon forecast flow based on the products of
WMO-TLFDP has been experimentally set up in ECRMC/CMA, in which the TC EPS products are playing an important role.
– Based on a benefit assessment of TC forecast services in Shanghai from 2010 to 2011, the overall satisfaction factor is fairly high up to 82.3%.
WMO WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMODemonstration Project (WMO--TLFDP)TLFDP)
The WMO-TLFDP has made significant progress in various aspects, which can be summarized as follows:
The WMO-TLFDP has made significant progress in various aspects, which can be summarized as follows:
Future PlanFuture Plan
The project will be continued till the end of 2015Two teams will be formed for the continuation
Demonstration application of new TC forecast products and verification techniquesBenefit assessment
Thank you for your attention.Thank you for your attention.
For more information, please visit WMOFor more information, please visit WMO--TLFDP website: TLFDP website: http://http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cntlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn(Please email to Mr. LI (Please email to Mr. LI QingqingQingqing [email protected]@mail.typhoon.gov.cnfor username and password.) for username and password.)
Tang X., X.T. Lei, H. Yu, 2012: WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast DeTang X., X.T. Lei, H. Yu, 2012: WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration monstration Project (WMOProject (WMO--TLFDP) TLFDP) -- Concept and Progress. Tropical Cyclone Research and Concept and Progress. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review.Review.