RuRal Development InstItute

Working Age Population

1

July 2014

www.brandonu.ca/rdi/

HigHligHts• Metroandnon-metroManitobaareexperiencingadecliningnumberofpotentiallabourmarketentrantsforeachpotentialretiree.Fromabout2015to2021,thenumberofpotentialentrantstothelabourforcewillbelessthanthepotentialretireesfromthelabourforce.

• Metroandnon-metroareasineachprovincearefollowingthesametrajectory.Non-metroareasoutsidethePrairiesalreadyhavefewerpotentialentrantsperpotentialretiree.

• InruralManitoba,therearenowfourcensusdivisions(CDs)withfewerpotentiallabourmarketentrantscomparedtotheexpectednumberofretirees–forexample,CD#5(includesKillarney)andCD#15(includesMinnedosaandNeepawa).TheseCDswillneedtoattractworkerstomigratetotheirregionortheywillexperienceadeclineintheirworkforce.

• TherearethreenorthernCDsinManitobawithmorethantwopotentialworkersforeachretiree.IntheseCDs,thereremainsastrongdemandforjobcreation.

Bollman, Ray D., & Ashton, W. Rural Development institute, Brandon University, Brandon, Manitoba, July, 2014.

WHy WoRking Age popUlAtion?

Apotentiallabourmarketshortagemayoccurwheremoreindividualsreachtheirretirementage,comparedtothenumberofpeopleattainingtheagewheretheywouldbeexpectedtoentertheworkforce.

TheobjectiveofthisFactsheetistoreviewthedemographyoftheworkingagepopulationtoidentifyregionswithfewerentrantstotheworkingagepopulation,comparedtothenumberofexpectedleavers.

Ourcalculationlooksatthenumberofindividualsexpectedtoentertheworkforceinthenext10years(thosethatarenow10to19yearsofage)comparedtothenumberofindividualsexpectedtoleavetheworkforceinthenext10years(thosethatarenow55to64yearsofage).

Therearesomeobviouscaveats.First,whenwemakethecalculationforanygivenregion,thenumberofentrantsandleaversfromtheworkforcewillbeinfluencedbyindividualswhomovefromoneregiontoanother.Second,noteveryoneretiresatage65andthusapotentiallabourshortagemightbeavertedifindividualsdonotleavetheworkforceatage65.Nevertheless,ourcalculations,basedsimplyontheagestructure,areexpectedtoidentifythedemographicpressureonlabourmarketprospectsinthenearterm.

Forexample,censusdivisions(CDs)withfewerpotentiallabourmarketentrantsthanleaversmaywishtorecruitin-migrants(fromelsewhereinCanadaorfromothercountries)inordertomaintaintheirworkforcelevels.Alternatively,CDswithmorelabourmarketentrantsthanleaverswillneedtocreatejobstopreventout-migrationofyouth.

FinDings

Manitoba’sdemographyisenteringaphasewithfewerpotentiallabourmarketentrantsthanlabourmarketretirees.Thissituationisexpectedtopersistfromabout2013/15toabout2021/27(Figure1).Duringthisperiod,therewillbelessthan100potentiallabourmarketentrantsforeach100potentialretirees.ThissituationholdsregardlessofthescenariooftherateofmigrationfromwithinCanadaintoManitobaortherateofimmigrationintoManitoba.

Figure 1.Potentiallabourmarketshortagefrom2013/15to2021/27duetolessthan100labourmarketentrantsper100labourmarketretirees,Manitoba

RuRal Development InstItute

Bollman, Ray D., & Ashton, W. Rural Development institute, Brandon University, Brandon, Manitoba, July, 2014. 2

Thedemographicpressureontheworkingagepopulationhassteadilyincreasedfrom1996to2012(Figure2).Specifically,thenumberofpotentialentrantshasbeendecliningrelativetothenumberofpotentialleavers.

In2012,thecalculationfortheWinnipegCMAisthatforeach100personsexpectedtoretireeoverthenext10years,therewere100personsavailabletoentertheworkingagepopulation.Thisisadeclinefrom150attheendofthe1990s.ThisindicatesanexpectedtighteningofthelabourmarketinWinnipegwithalowerexpectedabilitytogrowtheworkforceinthenearterm.

Figure 2. Demographicreplacementofworkingagepopulationisstillabove100%,non-metroManitoba

In2012,thesamecalculationfornon-metroareaswasthatforeach100personsexpectedtoretireoverthenext10years,therewillbe122personsavailabletoentertheworkingagepopulation.

Inthenearterm,thedemographicsofeachofthePrairieProvincesappearstoprovidemorepotentiallabourmarketentrantsthanpotentiallabourmarketretirees(Table1).However,allprovincesarefollowingatrajectoryasshownforManitobainFigure2.Mostprovincesareapproachinganerawheretheeconomicdevelopmentmantrawillbecome“createmorepeoplethanjobs.”

table 1.

number of potential labour market entrants (10-19 years of age) as a percent of number of potential labour mar-ket retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Metro non-metroNewfoundland&LabradorPrinceEdwardIslandNovaScotiaNewBrunswickQuebecOntarioManitobaSaskatchewanAlbertaBritishColumbiaCanada

79n.a.8083851011001071008694

6388727070811221051117381

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics CANSIM Table 051-0001 and 051-0045

Perhapsnotsurprisingly,thedemographicpressureontheworkforcepopulationdiffersacrosstheCDsofruralManitoba.In2012,fourCDshad80orfewerpotentiallabourmarketentrantsforeach100expectedretirees(Table2):

• CD#1(incl.LacduBonnet);• CD#5(incl.Killarney);• CD#15(incl.Minnedosa&Neepawa);and• CD#18(incl.Gimli).TheseCDswillneedtoattractworkersortheywillexperienceadeclineintheirworkforceoverthenearterm.(WeacknowledgethatourratiomaybelowforCD#1andforCD#18duetothein-migrationofearlyretirees(under65yearsofage)intotheseCDs.)

Attheotherendofthespectrum,threeCDshave275ormorepotentiallabourmarketentrantsforeach100potentialretirees:

• CD#19(incl.BerensRiver);• CD#22(incl.Thompson);and• CD#23(incl.Churchill).TheseCDswillneedtogrowthenumberofjobsfortheirnewworkers–orexperienceyouthout-migration.

this series of Fact sheets are available for download at http://www.brandonu.ca/rdi/25th/ 3

RuRal Development InstItute

Funding for this project was provided by the Manitoba government.

sUMMARy

Thegeneralpatternineachprovinceisadecliningnumberofpotentiallabourmarketentrantsforeachpotentialretiree.

InruralManitoba,therearefourCDswithfewerpotentiallabourmarketentrantscomparedtotheexpectednumberofretirees.TheseCDswillneedtoattractworkerstomovetotheirregionortheywillexperienceadeclineintheirworkforce.

TherearethreenorthernCDsinManitobawithmorethantwopotentialworkersforeachretiree.IntheseCDs,thereremainsastrongdemandforjobcreation.

FURtHeR ReseARCH QUestions

• WhateffectdoestheBaby-boomergenerationhaveonthenumbers?

table 2.