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Working Group on Nowcasting Research A Brief Introduction. Paul Joe. Mandate of WGNR. Advise Promote Nowcsting Advance the Science Publish and Convene Capacity Build and Technology Transfer. Nowcasting is precise in space, time and weather element. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Working Group on Nowcasting Research
A Brief Introduction
Paul Joe
•Advise
•Promote Nowcsting
•Advance the Science
•Publish and Convene
•Capacity Build and Technology Transfer
Mandate of WGNR
Nowcasting is precise in space, time and weather element.
Nowcasting is forecasting with local detail, by any method, over a period from the present to a few hours ahead; this includes a detailed description of the present weather.
In the foreseeable future it is most likely that it will be possible to make deterministic and probabilistic nowcasts for end-users of the 0-6h time period with sufficient time and space specificity to effectively mitigate losses or enhance benefits.
Conway, 1988
Nowcasts leads to a “call to action”
disaster (Flood/Landslide)
1 hour before
3-6 hours before
evacuation
Nowcast (Anal) >warning
VSRF (Anal+NWP) >caution
Met. Information
1-2 days before
SRF(NWP) >Outlook
Local Government
Citizen
Stand byReady to take action
preparation
Action for recovery
Cancel warning
Back to normal (recovery)
Action for disaster prevention
Precip. Intensity
Keep in mind
Is the skill of our forecast fulfilling their needs?
Courtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA
CSI of 0.2 is not good enough!
Zawadzki
Strategic Plan
• Promotion and Facilitation of Nowcasting Science– Improving Predictive skill and characterizing uncertainty
– Promoting physically based nowcast prediction through hi res modelling and data assimilation
• Nowcasting Systems and Process Development• Information Exchange and Capacity Building• Enhancing Transfer of Nowcasting Research to
Operations
Implementation
• Promote nowcasting science (RDP), transfer of technology and science through Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDP) and assist in the development of nowcast test beds.
• Organization of international nowcasting conferences and specialist symposia, training workshops and collaboration with WMO and CBS
• Inter comparison and systematic testing of these algorithms on common and representative databases (including consideration of extreme and high impact events) would provide valuable assessment and help define optimal paths for development.
• Promote collaboration amongst National Meteorological Services (NMS’s) to develop nowcasting capabilities
How?
• Symposia
• FDP, RDP, DC-FDP, Test Beds
• Workshops
• Training Workshops
• Other Projects (e.g. RQQI,…)
• Collaborations (promote and develop)
• Advice
RDP
FDP’s
DC-FDP
Test Bed
• Longer term demonstration project
• JONAS activity!
• Lead to operational implementation – forecast system definition!
• Better statistics for verification
• Better end-user interaction for social impacts
WWRP/NWG History
WWRP Conceived
Algorithms / Nowcast Teams Meet at Austin
Radar Conference
Olympic Focus
S2K Kick Off Meeting Reading
Sydney 2000
Athens “no go”
WG’s formed
-Nowcasting
-Verification
-Social Impacts
-Tropical…
B08 Kick Off (3)
MAP
B08 SNOW-V10
WSN05 WSN09
V10 KO
SNOWV10 KO
Current operational nowcasting programs only focus on summer convection!
• U.S. ~1952
• Canada ~1980
• Australia ~1990
• China ~2003
• Romania ~2003
• Germany 2005
• Japan 2008
Other Related WMO/WWRP Programs
• Central Basic Systems/Public Weather Service (e.g., WENS, SWFDP, MWA)
• Commission on Instruments Methods and Observations (e.g., RQQI)
• Verification Working Group
• Mesoscale Working Group
• Social Economic Working Group
Where Are We Going?Purpose of the meeting!
• More FDP’s, RDP’s, Training Workshops• Symposia and advancing nowcasting
workshops?• DC-FDP?• non-radar DP?• Advancing • Training Centre• Forecast Systems/Test Beds• Instruments for nowcasting