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Analysis of Trade-Offs in Agricultural Systems
Lotte Klapwijk19 February 2013
Methods and their strengths and weaknesses
Content
• Introduction• History of Trade-Off Analysis • Definition• Methods for Trade-Off Analysis• Strengths + weaknesses• Conclusion
Introduction
• Mission: “Reduce poverty and hunger, improve human health and nutrition, and enhance ecosystem resilience”
• Holistic view• Sustainability assessment• System Thinking• Trade-off Analysis…
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Scopus-search: 'Trade-off Analysis'
Year
Occure
nces
… is very “hot”
History
• Some examples:– de Wit, van Keulen, Seligman and Spharim
(1988)– Rabbinge and van Latesteijn (1992)– Stoorvogel, Antle and Crissman (2004)– Laborte, Van Ittersum and Van den Berg
(2007) – Naudin et al. (2012)
Laborte et al., 2007
The different scales of analysis
Average-IR
Better-off
Average-RF
Poor
Farm types
Municipality
Province
Farm
Provincial explorations
Optimization Rice production Farmers’ income
Without water-sharing Rice Production (103 t) 507 221 Farmers’ income (109 P) 6 50 Biocide use (t) 121 192 With water-sharing Rice Production (103 t) 726 273 Farmers’ income (109 P) 6 58 Biocide use (t) 160 251
Naudin et al., 2012
Science / Research
• Tasks– Analysis and charecterisation of
agricultural systems– Design of agricultural systems /
scenarios– Ex-ante integrated assessment of
scenarios and policies
• Integrated assessment of sustainability
Tackling a (TO) research question:
• Define the problem + objective• Describe components + indicators• Set boundaries / focus• Describe assumptions• Set goals (multiple optimization)
EXPERIMENTAL
PARTICIPATORY
MODELING
Quantitative
Qualitative
Trade-offs
• Definition Trade-off: “An exchange that occurs as a compromise”
• One more example: MSc thesis on viability of ‘One-cow-per-poor-family’-program, Rwanda
Trade-Off Analysis:
I. QualitativeII. Empirical or experimentalIII. SimulationIV. Optimization
I. Qualitative
• Participatory methods: fuzzy cognitive mapping, resource flow mapping, games, role-playing, etc.
• Companion modeling• “People are part of farming systems
and their views cannot be ignored” (Lawrence, 2011)
II. Empirical-experimental
• Frontier analysis• Data Envelopment Analysis• Randomized controlled trial
Modeling
• Model = simplified representation of reality
• Goal: to show processes, structure and/or function of a system
• Qualitative or quantitative• Simulation or optimization• Descriptive or explanatory• Static or dynamic
III. Simulation
• Bio-Economic Farm Models • APSIM• Midas• CLUE-model• FarmSIM• …
III. Simulation
• Trade-off Analysis model (Stoorvogel et al., 2004)
IV. Optimization
• Multiple Goal Linear Programming• Inverse modeling
– Pareto optimality
• FSSIM
SWOT of methods
• Advantages & disadvantages– Qualitative vs. quantitative– Based on expert knowledge, empirical data
and/or theory and process knowledge– Which objectives/indicators can be
accounted for?– Data demand– Pareto-optimality– Stakeholder involvement
Conclusion
….?
Acknowledgements
• Martin van Ittersum, PPS• Ken Giller, PPS (and the whole chair group)• Phil Thornton, CCAFS• Piet van Asten, IITA• Everyone interviewed within Wageningen
University as well as the CGIAR
Questions? Remarks?
Thank you for your attention!
One for you:Who’s interested to help me with a publication?
Quantitative QualitativeModelingScale
Farm level
Landscape + Watershed level
Regional + Global level
FarmSIMFarmDESIGNMGLPAPSIM…
Bio-economic (BEFM)Inverse modeling-method(DYNBAL + MOSCEM)Pareto-optimalFarm System Simulator (FFSIM)MIDAS (?)CLUE model
Participatory:- Companion modeling(agent-based)- Interviews- Plenary discussion- Games / role-playing- Resource flow mapping- Feedback workshop- Rural appraisal (?)- PIPA (Douthwaite, 2007
ExperimentsMeasurementsSurveys
Trade-Off Analysis model
Multiple criteria analysis
DEED.SMARTDfID.
Experiments (NUANCES)
Multi-objective optimization
Achieving impact = next phase, separated.Communication: radio.
And where goes semi-quantitative...
Trade-off level
APPROACH:
Experiments MGLP BEFM Inverse modeling (MOSCEM)
TOA-(MD)
Farm
Landscape + Watershed
Regional + Global
Quantitative QualitativeModelingScale
FarmSIMFarmDESIGN…
Bio-economic (BEFM)Inverse modeling-method(DYNBAL + MOSCEM)Pareto-optimalFarm System Simulator (FFSIM)
Participatory:- Interviews- Games
MeasurementsExperiments
Trade-Off Analysis model
“FRAMEWORK”
Farm level
Landscape + Watershed level
Regional + Global level