Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_Keynote Meine van Noordwijk

II. Trade-offs at landscape & watershed level – an

introduction

Meine van Noordwijk

Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural SystemsIdentifying and quantifying trade-offs across temporal and spatial scalesbetween productivity, food security, profitability and ecological services

Wageningen, February 2013

Landscape Space

People

Land Use Systems

Institutions

Functions, services

GeologyLand forms

Climate

VegetationFlora&fauna

Hydrology

Value chains Landscape -

Planning, Incentives

mul

tifun

ction

ality

Te

nure

Outline• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with

action for sustainagility (antifragility sensu Taleb)• Balancing CGIAR SLO 1+2+3 versus SLO 4• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural

intensification?• Buffer concepts quantified• Vegetation – climate beyond macro-climatic

effects: colours of water• Sentinel landscapes as research tools

Essentially there are only two possible conditions for any specific field of science

At least some of the evidence is conflicting with the most compre-hensive of current theories

Current theory is aligned with all credible known facts

Theory of Change• Implement a rational pathway to achieve change

that is deemed desirable by funders and accep-table by gatekeepers

Question common Answers

Change of Theory

Answer open Questions

Our daily struggle called science

Impact Pathway, Monitoring & Evaluation

Van Noordwijk et al. (2011)

Sub-system interactions

RulesIncentivesMotivation

Governance & Management

Van Noordwijk et al. (2011)

RulesIncentivesMotivation

Governance& Management

Politi

cal p

rom

inen

ce

pe

ople

* in

fluen

ce *

con

cern

Stage of the issue cycle

Scoping Stakeholder Negotiation Implemen- Re-eva- analysis response tation luation

Is it a problem?

Cause-effect mechanisms

Who’s to blame?

What will it cost?

Regulate and/or reward

Implement & monitor

Evaluate, re-assess

Who’ll have to pay?

What can be done to stop, mitigate, undo or adapt?

How much and where?

Who will monitor compliance? Litigation

Tomich et al. 2004

LocalEcological

Knowledge

Modeler’sEcological

Knowledge

Public/PolicyEcological

Knowledge

Based on ‘categories’

Based on ‘processes’direct ‘observables’

includes balance sheets

Laws

Urban folksLocal

govt

Socialscientists

Econo-mists

Eco-logists

Women

MenLowland/

upland

a) Multi-agent system (MAS) simulation models

b) Roles-playing games

van Noordwijk et al. 2001

Agreements with external agents (female)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

% la

nd a

rea

Year

Burnt area

Oil palm

Logged forest

Rubber agroforest

Forest

Rice land0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

% la

nd a

rea

Year

Burnt area

Oil palm

Logged forest

Rubber agroforest

Forest

Rice land0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

% la

nd a

rea

Year

Burnt area

Oil palm

Logged forest

Rubber agroforest

Forest

Rice land

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6Green Rubber agents 2 4 5 4 3 2 20Save Harimaw 9 4 15 0 0 0 28Waterboard 14 0 0 0 0 0 14Oil palm 0 0 0 0 6 1 7Logging 0 0 0 0 0 1 1Total 70

Agents Number of Stickers ∑

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1 2 3 4 5 6

No.

of a

gree

men

ts

Desa Buat Laman Panjang Lubuk Beringin

Desa Buat Laman Panjang Lubuk Beringin

C. In

dica

tors

*

B. O

bjec

tives

*

J. O

ther

sta

keho

lder

s

F. Trusted

sources of

information* eval

uatio

n

inputs

E. Options & incentives for change*

XYZ. Uncontrollable variation & change

G. R

ating

& ra

nkin

g*H

. Dec

isio

n m

akin

g* I.

Impl

emen

ting*

Focus can be: plot, farm, land use system, landscape mosaic, subcatchment, …with associated ‘managers’ and ‘external stakeholders’

D. (Dis)satisfaction with status quo*

A. Understanding of SES dynamics*

Drivers value chains Actors land use Land cover change Environmental

services

LeverageScenario’s,

Carrots, sticks, sermonsAdditionality relative to BAU

Displacement/leakageCo-benefits

Benefit distribution

Supply/demand price & investmentBusiness models, planning mechanisms

Direct benefits gender

Underlying Direct

Land use zoning, use and property rights

Human popula-tion & Δ

Mar-ket access, tax,subs.

Management&

behavioural choices of land users

Food, fibre, income Harvestable products

Provisioning services

Regulating, supporting & cultural services

Land use practices in a landscape

context

Human & environmental health&well-being

Commodity-product- ser-vice value chains, x-border trade

Waterflows (quality,quantity, regularity)

Macro-&me-so climateBiodiversity

Happiness monitoring

Economic development planning

Environmental & wellfare targeted planning

GDP, national econo-mic growth or decline

Natural ca-pital ac-counting

Sust

aina

ble

deve

lopm

ent m

etric

s

AgTech

New green economy, integrated rural-urban development coalitions…





Partnership in responsive and adaptive research for/on/in development efforts, strengtheningcapacity

Zero net land degra-dation

SLO1

SLO2

SLO3

SLO4

Rio

conv

entio

ns

M

illen

nium

Dev

elop

men

t Goa

ls

Sust

aina

ble

Dev

elop

men

t Goa

ls

UNFCCC CBD UNCCDAichi targets: areas, aware-ness, species, governance, incentives

Low emission development;Reduce vulnerability through adaptationRe

vers

e ne

gativ

e tr

end

Mai

ntai

n &

acc

eler

ate

prog

ress

Rural income growth & empowerment at bottom of the gendered pyramid

Food supply growth > growth in demand; food price affordable at bottom of gendered pyramid

Nutritional aspects of health improve at bottom of gendered pyramid

(Agr

o-)E

cosy

stem

goo

ds &

ser

vice

s

Landscape interactions:

Old-growth

http://www.cifor.org/es/crp6/research-portfolio.html

Tree cover transitions as uni-fying concept for livelihoods, landscape and governance aspects

http://www.cifor.org/es/crp6/research-portfolio.html

Which trees are part of “forest”, which ones part of the “agroforest”?

1. Undisturbed natural forest 2. Undisturbed + sust. logged natural forest 3. Closed canopy undisturbed + logged forest 4A. as 3 + agroforest 4B. as 3 + timber plantations 4C. as 3 + agroforest + timber plant’s + estate crops 4D as 4C + shrub

Rainforest foundation

Conservation agency

Modis data

Ministry of ForestryForest ecologist

UNFCCC definition

Stakeholder:

A view from the modern LU planners kitchen:

From the “silo- approach” to (intensive) agriculture, production forestry and conservation areas set-

aside, we can cook a landscape that is more

palatable than any of the ingredients, by adding

local preferences, using a variety of tools

Integrate Segregate

Farm fo-restry,

agrofo-rests

Natural forest

Fields, Forests & Parks

Open field agriculture

Plan

tatio

ns

Fiel

ds,fa

llow

, for

est m

osai

c

forest modification

agroforestation

re

- and

affo

rest

ation

defo

rest

ation

Spatially fine-grained and coarse patterns coexist and have advocates

Crop pro-duction

Tree pro-duction

Watershedservices

BiodiversityLandscape

beauty

Carbon storage

Pcrop Ptree Cstore Wsh Biod Land

Convex likely

Concave likely

No preference

Synergies be-tween functions

Paddy - (semi)perma-nent rice fields in wet places ~ irrigation/ drainage systems

Swidden – rotational temporary food crops +

fallow

Forest edge – source of timber & NTFP’s for local

use and trade

CoreForest

Expand paddy domain Fallow AgroforestShort (semi)domesticated fallows forest products

Market-driven logging by concessionairs

Use of fertilizer, pes-ticides, short-cycle, short-straw, HYV rice + vegetables/ palawija

Permanent Intensifiedopen-field agroforest,crops Pas- tree crops ture

Industrial Industrial tree crop timber plantation plantation

Permanently cropped, technical irrigation agriculture //urbanizing

‘Transmi- Smallholdergration’ Pas- tree crops / towns ture homegarden

Large-scale tree (crop) plantations

Protec-tedarea

Structured landscapes have

predictable land use patterns

that change as part of intensification

Paddy - (semi)perma-nent rice fields in wet places ~ irrigation/ drainage systems

Swidden – rotational temporary food crops +

fallow

Forest edge – source of timber & NTFP’s for local

use and trade

CoreForest

Expand paddy domain Fallow AgroforestShort (semi)domesticated fallows forest products

Market-driven logging by concessionairs

Use of fertilizer, pes-ticides, short-cycle, short-straw, HYV rice + vegetables/ palawija

Permanent Intensifiedopen-field agroforest,crops Pas- tree crops ture

Industrial Industrial tree crop timber plantation plantation

Permanently cropped, technical irrigation agriculture //urbanizing

‘Transmi- Smallholdergration’ Pas- tree crops / towns ture homegarden

Large-scale tree (crop) plantations

Protec-tedarea

Fully intensified landscape components

Extensively used landscape





The logarithm of human population density is a good predictor of the fraction of land area reported as forest (across different forest

types)We can identify countries that

have more than 10% extra, or

more than 10% forest deficit

relative to what is expected for their

population density

For 29 Developing Countries reporting increases in fo-rest area (“beyond forest transition point”), the pattern

matches that of 83 other Developing Countries

However, FT patterns are less likely in countries that have more than 10% forest deficit

A key assumption in the CGIAR is the Borlaug hypothesis that ag yield increase will save forests…

There’s a little bit of evidence suporting it, but not a lot…

Increasing log PopDens

decreases forest cover

Increasing Ag Land

Suitability increases

forest cover

Increasing Cereal Yield

(weakly) increases

forest cover

Forest decline is correlated with

Forest recovery is correlated with

Overall pattern dominated by humid forest, dry forest data deviate

Some evidence for Central America suggests that Recovery part of the FT curve correlates with Human

Development Index (HDI)

There’s a In the global data set however, country level HDI does not add much clarity to the pattern

There is some indication of a curvi-linear relation between HDI and the forest cover excess/deficit

Pre- post FT

Increase in HDI replaces firewood footprint by foot-print based on forest fibre

Forest transition points are less likely where the firewood footprint still exceeds 0.15 ha p.p.

Meyfroidt P, Rudel TK, Lambin EF (2010) Forest transitions, trade and the global displacement of land use. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, XXXX

Outline

• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with action

• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural intensification?

• Buffer concepts quantified• Vegetation – climate beyond macro-climatic


Persistence

Change sustainagility

Social stressors originating within and among community/ies

Economic stressors due to market

fluctuations & policy shifts

Climatic stressors: means, variability and

change

Access to under-utilized resources for

innovative use

Access to new markets, satisfying new types of

demand

Landscape buffers &

filters Pover-ty?

Resource accessibility

Innovation support

Shielding networks

Market access & insurance

65

4

321

http://www.worldagroforestry.

org/sea/Publications/files/manual/MN0048-11/MN0048-11-1.pdf

Outline

• Landscape & watershed: linking kowledge with action

• Balancing CGIAR SLO 1+2+3 versus SLO 4• Tree cover transitions: role for agricultural



Atmospheric concentrations of short- and longlived greenhouse gassesAt

mos

-ph

ere

Climate systems

An

thro

pog

en

ic

GH

G

em

issio

ns

Impacts of actual & predicted

climate change on human and ecosystems

Adaptation

Mitigation

Vulnerability

Human actions .

Human quality of life

Oth

er

pote

nti

al

eff

ect

s on c

lim

ate

syst

em

s

Exogenous variabiliy

Rainbow water, the missing colour

• Grey water: added focus on pollution, cleansing and re-use water shortage relates to ‘quality’

Rainbow wa-ter closes the hydrological cycle, adds the concept of terrestrial evapotranspi-ration as ‘recycling’

Rainbow =Recycled Atmospheric Inputs Now Benefitting our Water-supply

• Blue water: traditionally hydrology studies water flow in rivers, its use for irrigation, industrial & domestic uses water shortage & floods

• Green water: realized that water use in ‘upper watersheds’ is increased by forests & trees

Blue waterstreamflow

Rainfall triggering conditions

Precipi-tation

Rainbow waterAtmospheric transport

Soil & ground-water buffering

Gre

en w

ate

r ET

evap

otr

an

spir

ati

on

There are in-teresting but controversial ideas that fo-rests generate wind that trans-ports water vapour…

Ellison D, Futter MN, Bishop K, 2011.On the forest cover–water yield debate: from demand- to supply-side thinking. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02589.x

37%

% of rainfall derived from ‘short cycle’ terrestrial origins(recalculated from Basilovich et al.)

68%58% 30%

40%41% 46% 22%

42%

1) Mackenzie river basin, 2) Mississippi river basin, 3) Amazon river basin, 4) West Afri-ca, 5) Baltics, 6) Tibet, 7) Siberia, 8) GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment) and 9) Huaihe river

basin.

Approximately a third comes

from ‘local’ sources

van der Ent RJ, Savenije HHG, Schaefli B, Steele ‐Dunne SC, 2010. Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents. Water Resources Research 46, W09525,

E/P

Pfrom Et/P

Why India and China should invest in draining the Sudd and letting the water evaporate in Egypt in stead… and why West

Africa should be opposed to it

Deforesting Myanmar

will reduce rainfall in

China

S. Africa policies regarding Euca-lyptus water use cannot be di-rectly transfer-red to E. Africa

Keys PW, van der Ent RJ, Gordon LJ, Hoff H, Nikoli R and Savenije HHG, 2012. Analyzing precipitationsheds to understand the vulnerability of rainfall dependent regions, Biogeosciences, 9, 733–746

Dryland agricultural areas where more than 50% of rainfall is derived from terrestrial recycling

Sahel





Work in progress: A global portfolio of CRP6 Sentinel

landscapes

Sentinel landscape design?Sentinel landscape design?

Can it run?Can it run?

Poly-centric von Thuenen circles

Four (nested) ways to think about landscapes and primary stratifiers

Dendritic–river based

Topose-quence

Topose-quence

Linear– road-based

Landscape reorganization at river road transition

Geological history, pat-terns & current activity

Global climate systems based on oceans, land & atmosphere

Flora and fauna and its biogeography

Land forms,vegetation,ecosystems,hydrology

Initial human land

use

Late-stage hu-man land use

Land use is predictable from ‘reading the landscape’

Land use dominates over original terrain features

Remote sensing + groundtruthing,

space-based characterization of

vegetation, soil, etc.

Stratified household

(HH) survey +focusgrou

p discussions

(FGD’s)Natural terrain boundaries, watersheds & hydrological data, ecological zones

Administrative delineations & statistics

Range of methods to analyze knowledge, objectives, dissatisfaction, options for change, constraints & abilities to change.

Pantropical CGIAR domain

Pantropical set of “sentinel landscapes”

Internal variation in each sentinel landscape

Observation clusters

Criteria and process used to make selection



Representativeness & bias on key dimensions



Observation points



Data-setsMethods bias control processing

Conclusions

Conclusions

Conclusions

Conclusions

Conclusions

Conclusions

Spatial planning tool, inclusive of opportunity costs analysis for “mitigtion” planning, actions that can change land cover, local economy etc

Next steps: LUMENS, Land use for multiple environmental services

http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/Publications/files/booklet/BL0040-12.PDF

Conclusions• Landscape & watershed: linking

kowledge with action for sustainagility (antifragility sensu Taleb)

• Balancing CGIAR SLO 1+2+3 vs SLO 4• Tree cover transitions: role for

agricultural intensification?• Buffer concepts quantified• Vegetation – climate beyond macro-

climatic effects: colours of water• Sentinel landscapes as research tools

Tradeoffs exist at

nearly all scales we look at, we need (and have…) a

broad portfolio of

tools

Tools:Global data setsSpatial analysisSentinel landscapesMultiple-knowledge appraisalsTree-Soil-Crop modelsSystem tradeoff plotsPolicy Analysis MatrixAgent-based modelsRole-Play GamesParticipatory LU plansLearning landscapes

Forests, Trees and Agroforestry: livelihoods, landscapes and governance

Key tradeoff questions in CRP6

1.CGIAR SLO1+2+3 vs 4

2.Forest vs People

3.Sparing, sharing, caring

4.Buffers vs intensification

5.Tree cover transitions vs ES functions

6.Tree water use vs climate influence

7.Terrestrial C stock vs Income

8.Motivations to reduce emissions

9.Small vs large scale investors

10.Subsistence & markets by gender roles

Documents

Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_Keynote Meine van Noordwijk