World Climate Research Programme and THORPEX · PDF fileWorld Climate Research Programme and THORPEX Vladimir Ryabinin JPS for WCRP Ghassem R. Asrar D/WCRP. ... ukgs ingv mri-eccoSIO

V. Ryabinin

23.09.2008, THORPEX Workshop, Geneva

World Climate Research Programme and THORPEX

Vladimir RyabininJPS for WCRP

Ghassem R. AsrarD/WCRP

V. Ryabinin


JSC 29th session

Elected JSC Chair: Prof. Busalacchi

Elected JSC Vice-Chair: Prof. Griggs

Who is who at WCRP: new leadership

V. Ryabinin


Objectives

♦ To determine the predictability of climate♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate

+ (?)♦ Science supporting

- impact and vulnerability assessment, - adaptation, and - and mitigation to climate change

V. Ryabinin


Earth System Science Partner

www.essp.org

capacity building:

integrated regional study:

V. Ryabinin


A glimpse into history• WCRP was established in 1980 after WCC-1 (1979)• Sponsors: WMO, ICSU, IOC/UNESCO• Predecessor:

Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) 1967

• Early Initiatives:

Tropical Ocean - Global Atmosphere (TOGA) 1984

World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) 1990

Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) 1994

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GEWEX 1988 →

SPARC 1992→

CLIVAR 1995 →

CliC 2000 →

SOLAS 2001 ->

WGNE

WGCMWGSF

WOAPWMP

Anthropogenic Climate ChangeMonsoonsExtreme EventsSeasonal PredictionDecadal PredictabilitySea-Level ChangeAtm. Chemistry and ClimateInternational Polar Year

-OPCAO

(T)

water

WGOMD

cryo

with AREP

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WCRP Strategic Framework

• Time line: implementation 2005-2015 through WCRP core projects (GEWEX, CLIVAR, SPARC, CliC), WGs and cross-cutting activities

• Objectives (since 1980 and still valid): to determine the predictability of climate and to determine the effect of human activity on climate

• Aim: “to make new advances in the analysis and prediction of the variability and change of the comprehensive Earth system for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society”

Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES)

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Future Horizons2008-2013, intermediate term: WCRP core projects and WGs implement the Strategic Framework COPES and prepare for a change in structure.

post-2013: for a more effective interfacing with the users of climate informational products, the WCRP structure will change (JSC-29, Arcachon, France, April 2008). A new strategic plan will be prepared.

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Where the climate science has to deliver

Long-term prediction: Anthropogenic climate change (ACC):

MRF -> Seasons -> Decades Scenario based projections

Impact & risk assessment

Adaptation Mitigation

Seamless prediction problem

Nairobi WP Post-Kyoto

Applications: multiple

“Seamless” prediction

• Hypothesis: the Earth System exhibits a wide range of physical, BGC and other phenomena that result in a continuum of temporal and spatial variability, and this can be exploited to detect predictability on all(?) scales from days through decades.

• Current interest on scales from one week to 1-2 months: ensemble forecasting, work with THORPEX, assumed predictability on 10 – to 90 – day range linked to MJO, hence focus on organised tropical convection and tropical – extratropical interactions.

V. Ryabinin


Recent Achievements:WCRP Contribution to IPCC AR4

“WCRP serves an irreplaceable role for coordination within the

science community, which in turn is invaluable to the IPCC”

Dr. S. Solomon, IPCC Working Group 1 Co-Chair

• More than half of the contributors to IPCC AR4 are WCRP-associated scientists• mainly climate modelers, diagnostician experts,

cryospheric scientists

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Recent Achievements:IPCC AR4 Climate Projections

WCRP-IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) archive, hosted at PCMDI • made available to the entire world for free:

- 1300 users,- 1100 diagnostic subprojects,

- 300 new publications,- 33 terabytes of data ready for download

• for climate science + regional projections (WG 1) / impact assessments (WG 2 & 3)

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Recent Achievements: Assessment of Ozone DepletionWMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of OzoneDepletion (1998, 2002, 2006) • Scientific basis provided by WCRP/SPARC through

model simulations and analyses (Chemistry Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project)

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Working on the next IPCC Assessment:Lessons Learnt from IPCC AR4

• WCRP& IGBP & GCOS organized a Workshop in Sydney, Australia, Oct. 2007: Purpose & Scope

• Purpose: draw lessons from IPCC AR4 for climate change research and observation, and set priorities for WCRP, IGBP & GCOS research agenda.

• Scope: IPCC WG 1 (physical science basis) and WG 2 (impacts, adaptation and vulnerability).

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Recent Achievements

First Decadal Climate Prediction

D.M. Smith et al., Science 10.08.2007

Fundamentals: coupled climate

model run including the

oceans

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• WGCM, Paris, 22-24 September 2008

Runs for IPCC AR5

Pres

crib

ed G

HG

incr

ease

Pred

icte

d ca

rbon

cyc

le w

ith

emis

sion

s

Shorter IC predictive experiments to 2040

(CMIP4)

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Recent Achievements:

Advancing Seasonal PredictionWorkshop on Seasonal Prediction (Barcelona, June 2007), Outcome:

• Maximum predictability has not been achieved (there are still missing interactions between climate system components);

• Model errors still strongly limit forecast quality;• Seasonal predictability needs to be assessed with

respect to changing climate (IPCC class models);• Test weather prediction models on seasonal time

scales (collaboration with THORPEX);• Need for baseline procedure for assessing seasonal

prediction (validation, best practices).

Seasonal prediction experiments

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1982-83

1988-89

Rainfall Zonal Wind

1988-89

1982-83

The atmosphere is so strongly forced by the underlying ocean that integrations with fairly large differences in the atmospheric initial conditions converge, when forced by the same SST (Shukla, 1982).

Ocean and seasonal predictability

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Coupled Historical Forecast Project• Groups involved:

– EU ENSEMBLES project (stream 2, due end August)– APCC, CliPas (Number of different participants and data available)– NOAA-NCEP (Done), NOAA-GFDL (Done)– NASA-GMAO– COLA-NCAR (Nearly Done)– BMRC– JMA– CCCMa (in progress)

• Timeline:– Experiments to be done and data available by end 2008,– Possible workshop, but not before autumn 2009.

Seasonal prediction experiments

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• Conference on Reanalysis: OutcomeSignificant progress in advancing reanalysis techniques and products during the past 20 years, in particular in reanalysis of atmospheric and ocean data but recently also in sea ice data (Conference Statement).

Tropical Upper Ocean T Anomalies (Upper 300 m)

Pacific

12m-rm seasonal anom: EQIND Averaged temperature over the top 300m

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Time

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5ukdpukoicfcs2cfas2ecco50y

gfdlsodaecmfaecmfcukgs

ingvmri-eccoSIOcfasamct2

mct3eccoJPLaeccoJPLceccoMITGMAO

sdv ensm = 0.136s/n ensm = 0.619

sdv all = 0.220s/n all = 0.998

spread = 0.220

12m-rm seasonal anom: EQPAC Averaged temperature over the top 300m

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Time

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

ukdpukoicfcs2cfas2ecco50y

gfdlsodaecmfaecmfcukgs

ingvmri-eccoSIOcfasamct2

mct3eccoJPLaeccoJPLceccoMITGMAO

sdv ensm = 0.272s/n ensm = 1.139

sdv all = 0.337s/n all = 1.411

spread = 0.239

Indian

Progress in Reanalysis

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B1 Status - 2003

17 satellites

B1 Status - 2006

22 satellites

Towards climate system reanalysis: preparations for reprocessing

B1 Status - 2007

29 satellites

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World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction, Reading, UK, 6-9 May 2008Purpose: To discuss with both WCRP and IGBPmodelling communities progress in state-of-the-science climate modellingcapabilities.

‘Editorial’ and ‘news’ on the Modelling Summit, Nature 15 May 2008;

Key Steps Developing Climate Models

Outcome:Establish a

World Climate Research FacilityStart the

“Climate Prediction Project”

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Need more efficient delivery of climate information to users!

Strengthen the Climate Information System

Key Steps

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• WWRP-THORPEX via WGNE:– Aerosols and air quality– Regional modelling– Model development and verification– Atmospheric chemistry and climate– Monsoons (AMY as part of IMS)– Tropical cyclones and climate– Tropical convection (including YOTC)– Extreme weather events and climate change– WIS (with other WMO departments)

WCRP & WWRP

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Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling and Forecasting Of The Tropics

Proposal:Timeframe: Start late 2007/early 2008 Region: ~ 40N - 40STime Scales: Diurnal to SeasonalCase Study/Event Identification and Detailed Analyses:

MJO events, convectively-coupled waves, active/break monsoon,typhoon/hurricanes, easterly waves, mesoscale systems, etc.

Central repository to store/disseminate data as well as information on results, activities, etc.

Leverage/Coordinate existing resources.

Leveraging the vast new observational datasets and computational resources in conjunction with new / high-resolution modeling frameworks to better

characterize, understand, model and forecast multi-scale convective processes/dynamical interactions in the Tropics.

We are in a new era. In the Tropics, we have an: “IOP every day”By way of coordinated research and

incremental $; No large $$$ required.

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Composite of 18 Weak Vortex Events

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Lag (Days)

hPa

A10

30

100

300

1000

km

0

10

20

30

Composite of 30 Strong Vortex Events

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Lag (Days)

hPa

B10

30

100

300

1000

km

0

10

20

30

Weather from above. A weakening (red) or strengthening (blue) stratospheric vortex can alter circulation down to the surface. The diagrams show composites of the NAM index. (A) Composite of 18 weak vortex events and (B) 30 strong vortex events. The thin horizontal lines indicates the approximate tropopause (Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001).

Percent Variance of the Monthly-Mean Arctic Oscillation

JA SO ND JF MA MJ

10

30

100

300

1000

km

hPa

0

10

20

30A

0

5

10

15

20

25

JA SO ND JF MA MJ

AO predicts AO

150-hPa NAM predicts AO

B

(A) Statistical predictability of the monthly-mean 1000-hPa NAM after a 10-day lead. The diagram shows that predictability is greatest during winter, and that the stratosphere provides better predictability than the troposphere. (B) Cross sections through (A) at 1000 and 150 hPa. (Baldwin et al., 2003).

Every WCRP project searches for elements of predictability

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23.09.2008, THORPEX Workshop, GenevaOrvik and Skagseth, update

Orvik and Skagseth, GRL (2003)

Drange, 2004

NwASC and wind stress curl 15 months (!) earlier

Update


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Bengtsson, 2004

Barents inflowBarents Sea

Cyclonic circulation

Westerly winds

Feedbacks through sea-ice

Cohen et al., 2007

Feedbacks through snowFeedbacks through sea ice

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WCRP & WWRP (1)

GEO GEO ““Full Full PicturePicture””(2007)(2007)

ShortShort--term NWP errors <term NWP errors <--> Long> Long--term climate prediction biasesterm climate prediction biasesWe need to use all the predictability that you We need to use all the predictability that you

(WWRP & THORPEX) (WWRP & THORPEX) can havecan have and and take it with us to the longer time scalestake it with us to the longer time scales

• WWRP-THORPEX via WGNE:– Seamless Prediction

of Weather and Climate• Brunet et al. (white paper)

Toward a seamless process for the prediction of weather and climate: The advancement of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction.

• Shapiro et al. (white paper) The socioeconomic and environmental benefits of a revolution in weather, climate and Earth system analysis and prediction.

V. Ryabinin


Decision of WMO EC-XV (2008)Based • on recommendations of the World Summit on Climate Prediction• the “revolutionary” white paper• the “seamless” white paperEC established an

EC Task Team on Research Aspects of an Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction Framework (the Research Task Team) to propose a strategy on strengthening prediction research and related scientific assessments, provide an assessment report and suggest an action plan (to be used by WCC3) for maximizing research impact on WMO in an end-to-end Service delivery and capacity-building system.

Report expected to EC-61 in June 2009

Documents

World Climate Research Programme and THORPEX · PDF fileWorld Climate Research Programme and THORPEX Vladimir Ryabinin JPS for WCRP Ghassem R. Asrar D/WCRP. ... ukgs ingv mri-eccoSIO