World DifferencesWorld Differences

Part 2Trends and patterns in fertility

Birth Rate (live births per Birth Rate (live births per 1000) 1000)

The birth rate of a country is dependent on…The birth rate of a country is dependent on…• the the fertility ratefertility rate (the average number of (the average number of

babies a woman will have)babies a woman will have)• and the and the age structureage structure of the country’s of the country’s

population.population.• CBRCBR• TFRTFR• GFRGFR• ASBRASBR

For a high birth rate you need a high % For a high birth rate you need a high % of women of child rearing age 15-50 of women of child rearing age 15-50 years old.years old.

• So a country with an ageing pop will have a So a country with an ageing pop will have a low and declining birth rate. low and declining birth rate. (Japan 1995=10 (Japan 1995=10 2007=8)2007=8)

• A country with a young mean average age of A country with a young mean average age of pop will have a high birth rate. pop will have a high birth rate. (Uganda 2007=48)(Uganda 2007=48)

Age Structure

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html

Spatial Pattern of Fertility - Total Births

More children are born each year in Africa than are born in the Americas, all of Europe and Japan put together. (Worldmapper.com)

Global distribution of elderly people (+65)

A comparison of the 2 maps clearly shows that fat countries in terms of number of elderly are thin in terms of total births, and vis-versa

And a more traditional map – from Index MundiAnd a more traditional map – from Index Mundi

Fertility RateFertility Rate TrendsTrends• General trend of decreasing fertility rates - General trend of decreasing fertility rates -

1970s global average was 6 now 2.59 (2007)1970s global average was 6 now 2.59 (2007)• Replacement level 2.1 Replacement level 2.1 (why 2.1 and not 2?)(why 2.1 and not 2?)

• MEDCs, NICs and other semi-periphery MEDCs, NICs and other semi-periphery economies have seen significant fertility rate economies have seen significant fertility rate declines. declines.

• Countries in Southern Europe, Eastern Europe Countries in Southern Europe, Eastern Europe and East Asia are below replacement level. and East Asia are below replacement level.

• Even the least developed nations (such as Even the least developed nations (such as sub-Saharan Africa) are experiencing falling sub-Saharan Africa) are experiencing falling fertility rates.fertility rates.

Bucking the Trends - Anomalies and Unique CasesBucking the Trends - Anomalies and Unique Cases

• Japan (1.23) compared with other Japan (1.23) compared with other MEDCs (UK – 1.66, Sweden 1.66). “In MEDCs (UK – 1.66, Sweden 1.66). “In societies which make breeding and societies which make breeding and working compatible, women tend to do working compatible, women tend to do both.”both.”

Economist (July 28 2007)Economist (July 28 2007)

• The USA (2.09) compared with other The USA (2.09) compared with other MEDCs.MEDCs.

• China (1.79) compared with other India China (1.79) compared with other India (2.79)(2.79)

Population MomentumPopulation Momentum• By 2050 UN population projections predict significant By 2050 UN population projections predict significant

population growth.population growth.

So why; with falling fertility rates and slowing natural change are we still predicted to have significant population growth in the future?

Population MomentumPopulation Momentum• Population momentum is the tendency for a Population momentum is the tendency for a

population to grow despite falls in BR and population to grow despite falls in BR and fertility.fertility.

• It occurs because of a relatively high It occurs because of a relatively high concentration of people in the pre-childbearing concentration of people in the pre-childbearing and child bearing years; as these people grow and child bearing years; as these people grow older and move through the reproductive ages older and move through the reproductive ages births will exceed deaths and populations will births will exceed deaths and populations will continue to growcontinue to grow

Implications of MomentumImplications of Momentum• Thus in highly fertile countries with youthful Thus in highly fertile countries with youthful

populations, growth will continue despite populations, growth will continue despite significant declines in fertilitysignificant declines in fertility

• Moreover, in ageing countries such as those in Moreover, in ageing countries such as those in Europe, populations will continue to decline Europe, populations will continue to decline even if fertility rates are increased to even if fertility rates are increased to replacement level.replacement level.

• Thus replacement level must be seen as a long-Thus replacement level must be seen as a long-term concept rather than an indication of current term concept rather than an indication of current rates of change.rates of change.

• These implications are significant in terms of These implications are significant in terms of population policy and management population policy and management

Population pyramids help us to evaluate the

momentum potential of a

country

Group WorkGroup WorkTake an example of a rapidly growing Take an example of a rapidly growing population (eg Kenya) and a slowly population (eg Kenya) and a slowly growing population (eg Germany)growing population (eg Germany)

Discuss the future consequences of their Discuss the future consequences of their current population structurecurrent population structure

What will the government need to do?What will the government need to do?

And individuals?And individuals?

What will be the situation in 2050?What will be the situation in 2050?

A rapidly growing populationA rapidly growing populationLEDCs e.g. KenyaLEDCs e.g. KenyaCan be identified by population pyramids and Can be identified by population pyramids and the D.T.Mthe D.T.MOverpopulation in rural areas – soil exhaustionOverpopulation in rural areas – soil exhaustionOvercrowding – lead to poverty?Overcrowding – lead to poverty?Puts pressure on resources e.g. food, hospitals, Puts pressure on resources e.g. food, hospitals, water, power and other serviceswater, power and other servicesGovernmental money needs to be directed to Governmental money needs to be directed to those who need it (depending on the ages those who need it (depending on the ages concerned)concerned)Future – more children? Knock-on effectFuture – more children? Knock-on effectParticularly evident in ELDCs – increase in Particularly evident in ELDCs – increase in shanty towns, conditions worsenshanty towns, conditions worsen

Solutions:Solutions:

More family planningMore family planning

More contraceptionMore contraception

Free abortionsFree abortions

Delay marriageDelay marriage

Improve educationImprove education

Concentrate resources on lowering Concentrate resources on lowering the infant mortality ratethe infant mortality rate

A slowly-growing populationA slowly-growing population- MEDCs eg Germany- MEDCs eg Germany

- Fewer children can lead to schools - Fewer children can lead to schools closing and more unemploymentclosing and more unemployment

– More needs to be spent on pensions, More needs to be spent on pensions, hospital beds, nursing homes etc.hospital beds, nursing homes etc.

– ‘‘Grey Power’ – all pensioners have vote – Grey Power’ – all pensioners have vote – cannot be ignoredcannot be ignored

– Fewer working adults, taxes will have to Fewer working adults, taxes will have to up or retirement age.up or retirement age.

– http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-19784509

Solutions:Solutions:Raise child benefitRaise child benefitFree nurseryFree nurseryBetter maternity/ paternity rightsBetter maternity/ paternity rightsTax credits for low incomeTax credits for low incomeRaise retirement ageRaise retirement ageEncourage retired people to take on Encourage retired people to take on part-time jobspart-time jobsEncourage immigrationEncourage immigration

Population Change SummaryPopulation Change Summary• Population change varies over time and through space.Population change varies over time and through space.• High birth rates and falling death rates in LEDCs led to High birth rates and falling death rates in LEDCs led to

the global population explosion from about 1950.the global population explosion from about 1950.• Current rates of population growth are slowing down as Current rates of population growth are slowing down as

fertility rates decline globally.fertility rates decline globally.• However, population momentum will mean we see However, population momentum will mean we see

continued growth with the world population peaking at continued growth with the world population peaking at around 9 billion in 2050.around 9 billion in 2050.

• Although significant global declines in mortality have Although significant global declines in mortality have been achieved in recent years life expectancy in many been achieved in recent years life expectancy in many areas of sub-Saharan Africa is still very low as a result of areas of sub-Saharan Africa is still very low as a result of the prevalence of infectious diseases (especially the prevalence of infectious diseases (especially HIV/Aids).HIV/Aids).

Key TermsKey Terms• Crude Birth RateCrude Birth Rate (CBR) – the number of live births in a (CBR) – the number of live births in a

year per 1000 peopleyear per 1000 people• Total Fertility RateTotal Fertility Rate – the average number of children – the average number of children

born to a women during her lifetimeborn to a women during her lifetime• General Fertility RateGeneral Fertility Rate (GFR) – the number of live births (GFR) – the number of live births

per 1000 females of child bearing age (15-44 years) per 1000 females of child bearing age (15-44 years) • Crude Death RateCrude Death Rate (CDR) – the number of deaths per (CDR) – the number of deaths per

1000 of the population in a year1000 of the population in a year• Life ExpectancyLife Expectancy – the average number of years a – the average number of years a

person can expect to liveperson can expect to live• Age-specific deathAge-specific death rate such as rate such as infant infant andand child child

mortalitymortality• Doubling timesDoubling times; with a 2% growth rate the population ; with a 2% growth rate the population

doubling time would be 35 years, with 3% it would take 24 doubling time would be 35 years, with 3% it would take 24 years and with 4% only 17 years for a population to years and with 4% only 17 years for a population to double (to get the doubling time divide 70 by the %)double (to get the doubling time divide 70 by the %)

So why have we seen a So why have we seen a general decrease in fertility?general decrease in fertility?

Its all about people, places and decisionsIts all about people, places and decisions

"Geography is the study of The Earth as the home of people" Yi-Fu Tuan 1991

Its about people and the decisions people make in their lives. How place affects people’s decisions and how people’s decisions affect the place we live.

Fertility Rates and Human BehaviourFertility Rates and Human Behaviour

• Demographics is a study of the sum of Demographics is a study of the sum of many different people’s individual many different people’s individual decisions. decisions.

• The use of The use of birth controlbirth control is the key factor is the key factor affecting fertility rates.affecting fertility rates.

Fertility Rates and Birth Fertility Rates and Birth ControlControl

• Thus the fertility rate will depend on what Thus the fertility rate will depend on what social, political, economic, cultural and social, political, economic, cultural and environmental factors combine to affect environmental factors combine to affect individual people’s decisions on birth control.individual people’s decisions on birth control.

• To understand the link between development To understand the link between development and fertility you have to observe how these and fertility you have to observe how these factors which affect birth control change as a factors which affect birth control change as a country develops.country develops.

Decisions on birth control – Decisions on birth control – development continuumdevelopment continuum

Least developed countries

Most developed countries

List all the factors you can think of that will influence a persons decision to use birth control – try and place them on the continuum where you think they best fit in terms of a countries development.Use different colour highlighters to indicate if a factor is social, economic, environmental or political (SEEP)

Once again Gapminder steps in Once again Gapminder steps in to illustrate the links between to illustrate the links between

development and fertilitydevelopment and fertility• Gapminder World• Compare fertility rate and income; try

fertility and other development indicators as well.