World Economic History:

IntroductionOctober 1, 2007

Growth, historically

Introduction

The Malthusian trap

The Industrial Revolution

The Great Divergence

Life expectancy (years) - today & back then

0102030405060708090

DivergingGDP per capita

1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1900 1950 2000

Western EuropeWestern OffshootsAsia AfricaWorldLatin America

The Malthusian economy

The Malthusian trap

Who was Malthus?

The model

The trap

The 3 assumptions Each society has a birth rate (B) that

increases with material living standards The death rate (D) declines as living

standards increase Material living standards decline as

population increases

PopulationIncome per capita

B-D

Surviving children per woman, pre-modern

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

Norway SouthernItaly

France England NorthernItaly

Iceland

Life expectancy and death rates

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Death rate (per thousand)

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

(yea

rs)

Long-run equilibrium in the Malthusian economy

Revealed technological advance

Virtues and Vices in the Malthusian model

Living standards

Wages and Prices – some examples

Real Wages, England 1250-1850

The plague

Stagnant living standards….

GDP per capita: England vs. the other countries

Evidence for other countries in pre-modern times

05

1015202530

Ancie

nt Ba

byloni

a

Classi

cal At

hens

Roman

Egypt

Engla

nd*

Amste

rdam*

Paris*

China

**Jap

an*

Day w

age i

n po

unds

of w

heat (*) 1780-1800 (**) 1750-1849

Calories intake per capita

0500

10001500200025003000350040004500 (*) 1878-96 (**) 1812 (***)1980s (****)1970s

Stature and living standards

62636465666768 (*) 1710-59 (**)1830s (***)1819-39 (****)1800-29 (*****) 1883-92

Hours worked

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

England1720-39

England1780-99

Tatuyo Ache Yanomano