World has taught me · 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Shale gas Coalbed methane Tight gas Non-associated offshore Alaska ... Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 ‘09

Tinker, 2015Tinker 2015Tinker 2015

LNG in BCOctober, 2015

Demystifying Energy

Scott W. Tinker

Tinker, 2015Tinker 2015

Most people do not know

how electricity is made or

where gasoline comes from.

Framing Conundrum


• Is Fracking Bad?

• Is Oil Running Out?

• Can we Switch to Renewables Fast?

Three Questions


Is Fracking Bad?


3,000 to

10,000+ feet

3,000 – 10,000 feet

Shale

Hydraulic Fracturing

“Fracking”

30 - 500 ft.


3,000 to

10,000+ feet

3,000 – 10,000 feet

Shale

Water

Proppant

Friction Reducers: always (polyacrylamide)

Biocides: often (glutaraldehyde, chlorine)

Scale Inhibitors: sometimes (phosphonate)

Surfactants: sometimes (soaps and cleaners)

3 – 6 million gallons

30 - 500 ft.



3,000 to

10,000+ feet

3,000 – 10,000 feet

Shale

3 – 6 million gallons

30 - 500 ft.

Recycle

Reuse

Dispose



0 3,000 6,000 12,0009,000 15,000 30,00018,000 21,000 24,000 27,000

Resources (Tcf)

Pro

du

cti

on

co

st

(2008 $

/Mm

btu

)

Hydrates

15

10

5

0

Global Natural Gas

Resources v. Cost

QAe980Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)

Global Consumption

115 Tcfy

~ 300 year total resource

Sour

Arc

tic

De

ep

Wate

r

Shale

Co

al

Bed

Me

than

e

Co

nven

tio

na

l Tight

Pro

du

ced


0 3,000 6,000 12,0009,000 15,000 30,00018,000 21,000 24,000 27,000

Resources (Tcf)

Pro

du

cti

on

co

st

(2008 $

/Mm

btu

)

Hydrates

15

10

5

0

Global Natural Gas

Resources v. Cost

QAe980Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)

Global Consumption

115 Tcfy

~ 300 year total resource

Sour

Arc

tic

De

ep

Wate

r

Shale

Co

al

Bed

Me

than

e

Co

nven

tio

na

l Tight

Pro

du

ced


U.S. Natural Gas Production (Tcf)

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/about_shale_gas.cfm

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Shale gas

Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Non-associated offshore

Alaska

Associated with oil

Non-associated onshore


Environmental Impact and Technology

Proppant

Smaller Grains: suspend easier and lower frack fluid volume

Smart Proppant: micro and nano fabricated, non-fabricated, contrast agents

Coming Technology


Safe Fluid Handling

Minimize Methane Leaks and Eliminate Flaring

Minimize Emissions


Well Pad

Coming Technology


Multi-well Pads

Long Reach Drilling

Improved Drillsite Impacts


Drilling

Coming Technology


Cement Natural Gas Zones

Well Spacing and Refracturing

Improved Hydraulic Fracture and Production Zone Characterization

Non Fluid Fractures


Completion

and

Production

Coming Technology



Treatment

and Disposal

Reuse and Recycle

Manage Surface Discharge

Improved Seismic Monitoring and Characterization Ahead of Disposal

Coming Technology



1000’s of Feet of Rock




Is Fracking Bad?

Environmental Risks and Impacts Traffic/Noise/Light

Surface Impacts

Local and Atmospheric Emissions

Local Groundwater Contamination

Induced Seismicity

Human Health

Energy, Economy and Environmental Benefits Available

Affordable

Reliable

Jobs, Taxes, Healthy Economy, Environmental Investment


Is Oil Running Out?


The Future Transportation Mix

Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day25

20

15

5

10

0

ExxonMobil Corporation, 2013 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, page 20.

2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040

EuropeNorth

America

Gasoline

Other

Natural gas

Fuel oilJet fuel

BiodieselDiesel

Ethanol

Asia

Pacific


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

10

00

s B

Bls

/D

ay

Year

OECD Non-OECD

Global Oil Production

Source: BP Statistical Review 2012


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

10

00

s B

bls

/D

ay

Year

OPEC Non-OPEC FSU




0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

10

00

s B

bls

/D

ay

Year

OPEC Non-OPEC FSU




0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

10

00

s B

bls

/D

ay

Year

OPEC Non-OPEC FSU




0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

10

00

s B

bl

Da

y

Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia

Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific



2014

34 BBY


Long-Term Oil SupplyResources and Cost

0 2000 4000 10,0006000 8000

140

20

0

Resources (billion barrels)

Pro

du

cti

on

co

st

(2008 $

)

Produced MENA

40

60

80

100

120EOR

Arctic

Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)

Global Consumption

34 Bby

Deepwater and

ultra-deepwaterCoal

to

liquids

Gas

to

liquids

Oil shales

Shale oil

Heavy

oil

&

bitumen

Otherconventional

oil

CO2 EOR


Long-Term Oil SupplyResources and Cost

0 2000 4000 10,0006000 8000

140

20

0

Resources (billion barrels)

Pro

du

cti

on

co

st

(2008 $

)

Produced MENA

40

60

80

100

120EOR

Arctic

Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)

Global Consumption

34 Bby

Deepwater and

ultra-deepwaterCoal

to

liquids

Gas

to

liquids

Oil shales

Shale oil

Heavy

oil

&

bitumen

Otherconventional

oil

CO2 EOR


1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Data: Baker Hughes, 27 Feb 2015

QAe3534

$ / B

arr

el

~$10

~$100

~$50

Nu

mb

er

of

US

Oil

Rig

s

Technology

and Price


1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Data: Baker Hughes, 27 Feb 2015

QAe3534

Nu

mb

er

of

US

Oil

Rig

s Shale Oil

~4 Mbd

Technology

and Price


Annual US Oil Production

From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2012

Th

ou

sa

nd

ba

rre

ls/y

ea

r


Annual US Oil Production

From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2012

Th

ou

san

d b

arr

els

/year

2014 U.S. Production

~ 8.5 Mbd

Approaching 50% of U.S.

Production from Shale


Can we Switch to

Renewables Fast?


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Note: PV-c-Si stands for crystalline silicon photovoltaics

QAe3835

Global Average: Levelised Cost of Electricity

Q30

.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 H1 H2 H1 H1H2

‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘15‘14

Co

st

per

KW

H


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance: UNEP

Note: New investment volume adjusts for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals.

Developed volumes are based on OECD countries excluding Mexico, Chile, and Turkey.QAe3836

Global New Investment in Renewable Energy

9

2029

46

6166

75

89

107

97

131

36

53

83

108

121113

162

190

149

135 139

Developed

Developing

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

$ B

illi

on


Source: EIA QAe3884

Japan’s ElectricityNet Generation by Fuel, %

0 20 40 60 80 100

2010

Hyd

ro

Petr

ole

um

Ren

ew

ab

les

Coal Natural gas Nuclear

Percent

2013

Pre Fukushima Daiichi


Electricity Generation by Fuel

North America120

Europe

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

Asia Pacific

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

120 120

Nuclear

Coal

GasOil

Renewables

Quadrillion BTUs

ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

The Future Electricity Mix



USElectricity Generation

Data: IEA

4500

2000

1000

0

1500

500

TW

h 2500

3000

3500

4000Other fuel

Other renewables

Hydro conventional

Nuclear

Natural gas

Coal



1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

02010200820062004200220001998199619941992 2012

Mill

ion

met

ric

ton

s

Source: EIAQAe2823

U.S. First Quarter Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions


Electricity Generation by Fuel

North America120

Europe

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

Asia Pacific

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

1980 2005 2030

100

80

60

0

20

40

120 120

Nuclear

Coal

GasOil

Renewables

Quadrillion BTUs

ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.




EU Coal Consumption (1000 tonnes)

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

Year

900,000

700,000

1995 96400,000

500,000

97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13


The Future Electricity Mix1,100,000

1,000,000

900,000

250,000

Year

Germany

Europe

1,050,000

950,000

300,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012200,000

Source: EIA, 2015

European Coal Consumption (Short Tons)



Sources: US DOE, The Wall Street Journal

Energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions by

geography, and net change since 2005Country/area

China

India

Russia

Japan

Canada

UK

Germany

Europe

US

2011 emissions

8715 million metric tons

1726

1788

1181

553

497

748

4305

5491

Net change in annual emissions from2005 to 2011, million metric tons

544

201

-71

-86

-99

-370

-61

-509

3252



50

40

30

20

10

0 Sp

ain

Germ

any

Au

stralia

Italy

Japan

UK

Fran

ce

Nig

eria

Brazil

US

A

Ru

ssia

S.A

frica

Can

ada

Mexico

Ch

ina

Ind

ia

Den

mark

Sources: IEA, EIA, national electricity boards, OANDA, shrinkthatfootprint.com

Average national electricity prices (in 2011 US cents/kWh)

41

35

30292826

20191817

121110101088

Data: average prices from 2011 converted

at mean exchange rate for that year


167

111

98

3 24 14,131

2,987

3,730

560831

237

Global PopulationEach color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people

Energy Mix

Petroleum

Nat Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro Renew

Modified from: EIA Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent (2012)


1017

820

468

207156 57

302

14928

5

166

16

880

975

517

267

191 99

376

371

10 5

167

111

98

3 24 11389

562

2609

78289 64


Energy Mix

Petroleum

Nat Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro Renew



1017

820

468

207156 57

302

149

28

5

166

16

880

975

517

267

191 99

376371

10 5

167

111

98

324 1

1389

5622609

78 289 64


Energy Demand

Petroleum

Nat Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro Renew



38%

28%

32%

31%

23%

23%

Energy Mix Trend


38%

28%

32%

31%

23%

23%

Energy Mix Trend


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Qu

adri

llio

n B

tu

U.S. Renewables

Jim Sweeney, 2015. Data: EIA, Monthly Energy Review

Biomass

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Total Energy Consumed Imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Qu

adri

llio

n B

tu

Hydroelectric Power ConsumptionWood Energy ConsumptionWaste Energy ConsumptionBiofuels ConsumptionWind Energy ConsumptionGeothermal Energy ConsumptionSolar/PV Energy Consumption


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Qu

adri

llio

n B

tu

U.S. Renewables

Jim Sweeney, 2015. Data: EIA, Monthly Energy Review

Biomass

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Total Energy Consumed Imports

Growth 0.55% less than GDP

Efficiency


• Is Fracking Bad?

Yields affordable, reliable energy resources

Needs to be done right to be environmentally sustainable

• Is Oil Running Out?

Substantial oil resources in the world

Creating reserves requires the right price and technology

• Can we Switch to Renewables Fast?

Resource quality and cost vary by region

The transition will likely be slow, which is not all bad

Efficiency has a major impact

Three Questions


Environment

Economy

Energy

The

Radical

Middle

Source: Tinker, EARTH, 2013


Academia/NGO

Government

Industry

The

Radical

Middle

Source: Tinker, EARTH, 2013

Documents

World has taught me · 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Shale gas Coalbed methane Tight gas Non-associated offshore Alaska ... Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 ‘09