08/02/2016 World Offshore Wind Market Forecast ­ Douglas­Westwood

http://www.douglas­westwood.com/report/renewables/world­offshore­wind­market­forecast­2016­2025/ 1/2

Rush to install offshore wind as 2020 Euro target looms

€200bn of Capital Expenditure will result in installed capacity >70GWby 2025

Now in its seventh edition, the new Douglas­Westwood (DW) World Offshore Wind Market Forecastprovides a ten­year view of the sector through to 2025. Cumulative offshore wind capacity is forecast toreach 74GW, driven by a large number of developments taking place in the UK, Germany and China andstrengthened by the growth of new entrants to the offshore wind sector, such as France and the USA.

Following a strong year of offshore wind activity in 2015 (3.8GW installed), capacity installed will dip in2016 to 1.5GW. However, capacity will return to an upward trend, peaking at 9.2GW in 2022. CapitalExpenditure (Capex) on projects which have surpassed the conceptual stage of development will total€200 billion (bn) between 2016 and 2025, with potential upside of €70bn (“Expected Capex”).

Capital costs have reduced in recent years, predominantly due to the larger sizes of turbines installed,resulting in less infrastructure (such as foundations) being required per MWh generated. This upsizingpresents new challenges for installation contractors but should result in lower operational expendituresonce wind farms become operational.

The UK will add circa 10GW of capacity over the next decade, with most of this activity expected tooccur by 2022, as Round 3 developments take place. Germany will also install over 10GW but has alonger term outlook, with activity levels peaking in 2021. China is expected to install over 10GW ofcapacity, lower than previously expected but still representing a strong growth market.

Emerging markets include countries such as the USA and France, who are expected to have their firstoperational wind farms in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The USA is expected to install 1.8GW of offshorecapacity over the next decade, and France 3.2GW.

Key Themes

The report provides detailed market forecasts through to 2025 and is essential reading for companiesworking within the offshore wind sector. The report focuses on:

Key drivers – a discussion of factors driving offshore wind installation activity including low carbontargets, rising energy demand and the need to replace power generation capacity.Commercial insights – including analysis of cost pressures on capital, lifetime costs, risk factorsand typical financing models.Technology review – analysis of research and development (R&D) priority areas.Supply chain – a review of the main players, strengths & weaknesses of contracting strategies andsupply chain development challenges.

08/02/2016 World Offshore Wind Market Forecast ­ Douglas­Westwood

http://www.douglas­westwood.com/report/renewables/world­offshore­wind­market­forecast­2016­2025/ 2/2

Ten­year market forecast – for new capacity, capital expenditure, operating expenditure, windturbines, foundations, cabling, substations and vessels.Country analysis – detailed operational & capital expenditure forecast, including by capacity andsegment analysis.

NEW FOR 2016:

Component forecasts – translate “Expected Capex” into expected capacity and associatedcomponents, assuming a proportion of concept / speculative projects go ahead towards the end ofthe forecast period.Helicopter forecast – assessment of demand for construction and operations and maintenance(O&M) support, as a result of increased helicopter use as wind farms are installed far from shore.Key themes – discussion around new trends in the industry including: new technologies, clustering,repowering and logistical solutions including helicopters and service operation vessels (SOVs).

Why Purchase the World Offshore Wind Market Forecast?

DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top­10oil & gas companies, top­10 oilfield services companies and top­10 private equity firms.

The report is essential for companies working within the offshore wind sector, wanting to betterunderstand where and when to make investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

Industry consultation – discussion with a wide­range of companies including: project developers,equipment manufacturers, and installation contractors. Throughout the report we highlight pertinentquotes, related to specific aspects of the market.Unique and proprietary data – detailed by project in global offshore wind database. Updated year­round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.Detailed methodology – our forecast provides a ‘medium­case’ scenario for market activity, drawnfrom our databases, which enables the forecasts to be established on a project­by­project basis;taking into account factors such as project size, location, financial backing and progress to date.Comprehensive analysis – comprehensive examination, analysis and 10­year forecast of offshorewind expenditure.Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all ofour market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supportingmaterials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed­read’ summaries of key points throughout.