World Population Program(POP)

Director: Wolfgang LutzDeputy Director: Sergei Scherbov

27 researchers (some work part time) coming from Austria, Belarus, Bulgaria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Nepal, Norway, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, Spain, Thailand, The Netherlands, USA Disciplinary backgrounds: demography, economics, sociology, mathematics, statistics

Long History of Population Research at IIASA

1974-1984 Andrei Rogers1984-1994 Nathan Keyfitz1994 - … Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov ….

What stands out as unique contributions of POP?• Multi-dimensional (multi-state) Demographic Methods• Pioneering Global Probabilistic Population Projections• Population – Development – Environment Analysis• Modeling of Human Capital Formation

Research Areas

• Population and Human Capital Dynamics• Reassessing Aging from a Population

Perspective• Human Capital and Economic

Performance • Age and Cohort Change • Forecasting Adaptive Capacity to Climate

Change

Population and Human Capital Dynamics

• New science-based population projections by age, sex, and level of educational attainment for all countries of the world with the time horizon of 2060

• In tandem with the next generation of IPCC related Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

• Oxford University Press book World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century (Lutz et al. 2014).

Reassessing Aging from a Population Perspective2.2 Mio European Research Council (ERC) Advanced Grant

PI: Sergei Scherbov

• Addresses multiple dimensions of aging, including health, cognitive abilities, and longevity

• Concept of “prospective age”• Characteristics approach to the measurement of

population aging

Human Capital and Economic Performance

• Adding educational attainment to Demographic Dividend Model

Age and Cohort Change (ACC)1 Mio European Research Council (ERC) Starting Grant

PI: Vegard Skirbekk

Mission: - Estimate and project future skills and beliefs across the entire world

Examples of research:- Estimating cognitive change over the life cycle

across nations- Analysing long term effects of fertility dynamics

on economic and social outcomes

Forecasting Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change2.5 Mio European Research Council (ERC) Advanced GrantPI: Wolfgang Lutz

• Formal schooling can reduce vulnerability in terms of life losses, injury, morbidity and damage

• Better educated cope better with disasters and spend less time to recover

• Policies should focus on general empowerment through education and human capital formation

Forecasting Societies‘ Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (ERC Adv. Grant to WL, IIASA)