World Population Program(POP)
Director: Wolfgang LutzDeputy Director: Sergei Scherbov
27 researchers (some work part time) coming from Austria, Belarus, Bulgaria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Nepal, Norway, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, Spain, Thailand, The Netherlands, USA Disciplinary backgrounds: demography, economics, sociology, mathematics, statistics
Long History of Population Research at IIASA
1974-1984 Andrei Rogers1984-1994 Nathan Keyfitz1994 - … Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov ….
What stands out as unique contributions of POP?• Multi-dimensional (multi-state) Demographic Methods• Pioneering Global Probabilistic Population Projections• Population – Development – Environment Analysis• Modeling of Human Capital Formation
Research Areas
• Population and Human Capital Dynamics• Reassessing Aging from a Population
Perspective• Human Capital and Economic
Performance • Age and Cohort Change • Forecasting Adaptive Capacity to Climate
Change
Population and Human Capital Dynamics
• New science-based population projections by age, sex, and level of educational attainment for all countries of the world with the time horizon of 2060
• In tandem with the next generation of IPCC related Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
• Oxford University Press book World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century (Lutz et al. 2014).
Reassessing Aging from a Population Perspective2.2 Mio European Research Council (ERC) Advanced Grant
PI: Sergei Scherbov
• Addresses multiple dimensions of aging, including health, cognitive abilities, and longevity
• Concept of “prospective age”• Characteristics approach to the measurement of
population aging
Human Capital and Economic Performance
• Adding educational attainment to Demographic Dividend Model
Age and Cohort Change (ACC)1 Mio European Research Council (ERC) Starting Grant
PI: Vegard Skirbekk
Mission: - Estimate and project future skills and beliefs across the entire world
Examples of research:- Estimating cognitive change over the life cycle
across nations- Analysing long term effects of fertility dynamics
on economic and social outcomes
Forecasting Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change2.5 Mio European Research Council (ERC) Advanced GrantPI: Wolfgang Lutz
• Formal schooling can reduce vulnerability in terms of life losses, injury, morbidity and damage
• Better educated cope better with disasters and spend less time to recover
• Policies should focus on general empowerment through education and human capital formation
Forecasting Societies‘ Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (ERC Adv. Grant to WL, IIASA)