WRIWRI

International Climate Policy Post-2012Quantitative Tools and Negotiating Capacity

A Review of WRI’s Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT)

Beijing, ChinaFebruary, 2006

Jonathan PershingClimate, Energy and Pollution ProgramWorld Resources Institute http://www.wri.org

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• A web-based information and analysis tool on global climate change developed by The World Resources Institute (WRI).

• CAIT includes:– Data on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sources, plus

other data and indicators relevant to climate change policy– Data for 186 countries (most UNFCCC Parties) and regions– Analysis tools (e.g., trend, sector, or gas analysis)

What is CAIT?WRIWRI

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http://cait.wri.org

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What is CAIT? (2)

• Purposes– Promote greater access to information– Support decision-making processes and help build capacity– Provide common platform for data and analysis

• Policy neutral• Available free to the public at http://cait.wri.org

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• Data providers– CDIAC– RIVM – IPCC– IEA– World Bank

– UNDP– U.S. EPA– U.S. EIA– UNFCCC– Houghton

Acknowledgements

• Funding providers• U.S. EPA, Government of Norway, Wallace Global

Fund, Prospect Hill Foundation

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Working assumptions: – Information is the first step to solving any problem – Better information → better decisions– “Delivery system” matters

1. CAIT2. Navigating the Numbers report

Data – Policy Linkage

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Who is Using CAIT?

~5000 total users from 108 countries, December 2003 to present

28%25% 24% 23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

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By Sector

35% 35%

19%

7%4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Eur

ope

US

+C

anad

a

Asia

Latin

Am

eric

a

Afr

ica

&M

id. E

ast

By Country/ Region

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CAIT Screens

Using CAIT

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Rank by national emissions total

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Bottom of the ranking: 186 countries

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Rank by perCapita emissions

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Choice of gases

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Other indicators

Analyses possible

Customize Displays

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Choosing Display Regions

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Vulnerability and Adaptation

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Some CAIT

Results

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• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation

Policy-Relevant Implications

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Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth

% Percent change from 2000

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• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation

Policy-Relevant Implications

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Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing

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• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation

Policy-Relevant Conclusions

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Fixed targets: challenging in the context of massive uncertainty

Projected CO2 Emissions Growth to 2025

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• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation

Policy-Relevant Conclusions

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Historical Contributions: Major Data Constraints

Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods

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Emissions per Capita: Consensus?

GHG Emissions per Capita

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Fuel mix affects CO2 emissionsElectric Power Sector

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• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation

Policy-Relevant Conclusions

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GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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• Different “forms” of sectoral cooperation• How important is the sector? [% global GHGs] • Underlying rationale for sectoral cooperation

– Promote participation– Avoid “leakage”– Promote even regulatory playing field (competitiveness)

• Options for international cooperation

International Sectoral Cooperation

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• Global trends are in the wrong direction• Address GHGs in context of big emitting

countries and sectors– Int’l cooperation, investment, technology

• No single indicator tells a complete story• Data does not point directly toward a solution

– Nature and scale of problem– Diverse national circumstances

Conclusions

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Using CAIT

http://cait.wri.org