Peter HayesProfessor, International Relations, Nautilus-RMIT

Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, USA

www.nautilus.org

SeoulOctober 18, 2010

Global Security and Complexity

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Global Security: 1st half of 20th Century Fluidly Simple

• State-based security• Classic Realist Balance of power politics• Two world wars• Anti-colonial wars to establish new states or reinstate pre-colonial states or empires

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Global Security: 2nd Half of 20th Century Rigid Simplicity

• Cold War for 4 decades• Bipolar structure covering entire planet• Blocs and Alliances • Balance of terror• Spheres of influence• Non-aligned states• Contested zones (Korea)• Wars of national liberation• Very predictable…until the Soviet Union fell apart• Bipolar system reconstituted around American hegemony for 10 years when the world spun apart

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CC Adaptation: Reminder--Complex Systems

• Local processes may govern transitions of the state of the whole system due to dependence on the initial conditions or what is known intuitively as the “butterfly effect.”

• Due to their non-linearity, the effects of these interacting processes across scales, including positive and negative feedbacks, are inherently unpredictable.

21st Century: Global Security Increasing Complexity – 13 dimensions

Source: http://www.watsoninstitute.org/globalsecuritymatrix 5

Global + Resource Conflict

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Global + Warfare

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Outside-In Approach:Wicked

WMD-Insecurity Complex 16 Part Global Problem

Outside-In Approach: Wicked

WMD InsecurityComplex

20 Part Global Solution

Perkovich et al, 20069

Shift from Simple to Complex Security State -> {State + Market + Civil Society}

State (military) -> {State + Military + Human + Ecological Security}

Political -> {Political + Legal + Institutional Security}

National -> {National + Local + Global + Individuals + Glocal + Networked Security} 10

Simple to Complex Global Problem-Solving

Shift from

Singular, sequential problem-solvingto

Multiple, simultaneous problem-solving

For example

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Outside-In Approach: “Sustainable Security”

Conclusion (p. 29)Five macro-drivers of instabilityworsen each other and requiresimultaneous and integratedsolutionsSource: Oxford Research Group, June 2006

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Holdren: reduces this complexity to nexus:“energy-economy-environment dilemma”

Poverty

Nuclear Proliferation

Pollution, EnvironmentalStress

Climate Change

Development

Climate Change

Energy

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Global Problem-Solving Failures and Strategies

Global Gridlock• International treaties (too slow, too ritualistic)• International regimes (non-binding, no enforcement)• Mega-conferences (respond to cumulative failure to solve urgent problems, LCD

consensus, dissensus, no followup)• G7-8, 20 type groupings (process failures, not inclusive, disconnected from

market and CS knowledge, vertical and time distance• 40 global “multilateral” IGOs (constrained by paymasters, small funding,

scapegoated)

Global Solutions• World Government: distill all the above into global gridlock; great powers

dominant and entrenched• or• Networked governance (multisectoral, global issue, norm-based networks, fast,

legitimate, cross-border, inclusive of diversity, internet-based + G20 specialized inter-governmental initiatives

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Genesis of Modern Traditional Think Tanks (Rand, Hudson, IDA, CNA...)

• academic• contract research• advocacy• party-affiliated

“Keep an eye on those two.” 15

States Cram Complexity into a Few Bureaucratic Boxes

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Transnational Think Nets

Types• global public policy networks• single issue global social movements• diasporic networks• transecting transnational networks

Characteristics• Multi-sectoral• Cross-issues (multi-dimensional)• Diasporic

Enabling conditions:Internet + globalization

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Key Concepts for Transnational Think Nets

• the information milieu of the global public sphere is the critical domain for policy articulation and implementation

• because it contains the common knowledge and shared reference points that are critical to successful negotiation

• seek to identify natural affines that share weak links• solution to the “small worlds” problem

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INFOAXIOM 2 www.infoaxioms.org

Common Knowledge and NetworksSpeed of diffusion varies by weak-strong links (less

processing, less distance, fastest communication in weakly coupled networks)

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Transnational Think-Nets

• communicate across borders and behind the scenes• speak truth to power• top quality information and analysis• Informational and analytic timeliness, accuracy,

insight (especially early warning of pending events, emerging issues, or anomalies in conventional perspectives

• connectivity to networked policymakers.

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