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Catastrophic Risk Assessment for Preparedness
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Inderjit ClaireVice President Sales, RMSI
October 2007
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Hazard Risk Management Framework
Risk Assessment
Catastrophe Risk Financing
Ex-Ante Funding Arrangements Catastrophe Insurance Pools Reserve Funds Contingent Capital Facility
Risk Mitigation Investments Warning and Monitoring Systems Hazard Mapping and Land Use Planning Code Refinement and Enforcement Hazard Specific Risk Mitigation
Emergency Preparedness Emergency Response Planning Exercises Public Awareness Communication and Information
Management Systems (IMS) Technical Emergency Response
Capacity
Institutional Capacity Building Community Participation Legislative Framework Training, Education and knowledge
Sharing Decentralized Emergency Management
System International Cooperation
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Vulnerability Assessment
RISK ASSESSMENT
HAZARDS
VULNERABILITY
HAZARDZONATION
ELEMENTS AT RISK
VULNERABILITYASSESSMENT
Persons
Structures
Activities &Functions
Landuse
Human Vulnerability
StructuralVulnerabilityLandVulnerability
Functional Vulnerability
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Calculate Flood Calculate Flood DepthsDepthsDefine EventDefine Event
Quantify Quantify Financial LossFinancial Loss
90%
$ Loss$ Loss
StochasticStochasticModuleModule
HazardHazardModuleModule
VulnerabilityVulnerabilityModuleModule
FinancialFinancialModuleModule
Modeling Framework
Calculate DamageCalculate Damage
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Project Outline
Objective: To develop earthquake and flood models based on the hazard characteristics and nature of housing stock in Romania for computing loss potentials associated with housing stock in Romania.Elements at risk: Residential buildings excluding contents, appurtenances and temporary accommodation.Perils: Earthquake and Flood. Flood model includes risk due to flash floods, failure or over-topping of dykes, failure of large dams.Model scope and resolution: The models cover the entire country. The resolution used is based on suitability for implementing and monitoring the Romanian Catastrophe Insurance Scheme and for mitigation planning.Software features:Earthquake and Flood risk models implemented as software for use by administrators and insurance specialists.
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Generation of stochastic events
25 Seismic Area Sources
Seismic area sources are converted into 238 fault lines/segments
Each fault line can produce events ranging from Mw 5.0 to Mmax
1706 Stochastic events are generated at increment of magnitude Mw 0.25
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PGA return period map
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Flood Depth & Extent comparison
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Flood Extent map
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Residential Building Exposure Classification
NIS MATERIAL CATEGORYMATERIAL
CLASS
Reinforced concrete, pre-cast concrete panel or steel skeleton framed concrete
M1A
M1B
M1C
Bricks masonry, stones masonry or panels substitutes, made of reinforced concrete (steel/beams)
M2
Bricks masonry, stones masonry or panels substitutes, made of wood
M3
Wood (beams, logs etc.) M4
Saplings plastered with wet clay, adobe, other materials (Wood Pressed Panels, rolled mud bricks etc.)
M5
NIS YEAR CATEGORYYEAR
BAND
Residential buildings built before 1900
YB1
Residential Buildings built between 1900-1910
Residential Buildings built between 1911-1920
Residential Buildings built between 1921-1929
Residential Buildings built between 1930-1941
Residential Buildings built between 1942-1945
Residential Buildings built between 1946-1960
YB2 Residential Buildings built between 1961-1963
Residential Buildings built between 1964-1970 YB3
Residential Buildings built between 1971-1977 YB4
Residential Buildings built between 1978-1980
YB5 Residential Buildings built between 1981-1985
Residential Buildings built between 1986-1990
Residential Buildings built between 1991-1992
Residential Buildings built between 1993-2002 YB6
NIS HEIGHT CATEGORY HT BAND
1 Story H1
2-3 Stories H2
4-7 Stories H3
8 –10 Stories H4
10+ Stories H5
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Earthquake Vulnerability curves
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
S pe ctrum ba se d inte nsity (M S K)
MD
R
M 1A _Zone-1
M 1A _Zone-2
M 1A _Zone-3
M 1A _Zone-4
M 1B _Zone-1
M 1B _Zone-2
M 1B _Zone-3
M 1B _Zone-4
M 1C_Zone-1
M 1C_Zone-2
M 1C_Zone-3
M 1C_Zone-4
M 2_Zone-1-2
M 2_Zone-3-4
M 3_A ll Zones
M 4_A ll Zones
M 5_A ll Zones
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Flood Vulnerability curves
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Residential Exposure by Commune - EQ
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Residential Exposure by Commune - Flood
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Earthquake 100% Penetration in Romania 5% Deductibles
Modeled Total and Insured earthquake loss for Romania
Flood 100% Penetration in Romania
5% DeductibleReturn Period TOTAL LOSS INSURED LOSS TOTAL LOSS INSURED LOSS
10 14,461,588 3,219,554 19,768,500 9,136,03350 1,105,862,671 608,644,748 498,532,622 361,481,292
100 2,524,287,087 1,655,771,838 794,009,879 593,364,895150 2,620,407,976 1,742,515,731 864,381,916 660,229,869250 3,994,014,758 2,854,352,789 1,205,193,517 933,437,117
AAL 69,204,027 41,709,380 23,522,800 16,227,595Premium @20euro 123,462,480 @10euro 20,505,180
CLASS A Dwellings CLASS B Dwellings
5% DeductibleReturn Period TOTAL LOSS INSURED LOSS TOTAL LOSS INSURED LOSS
10 47,615,020 32,105,223 19,010,978 14,893,02650 196,914,052 141,535,119 74,186,434 59,150,679
100 265,080,156 184,781,855 95,235,025 75,628,347150 308,365,129 215,883,881 109,088,512 86,592,467250 381,711,715 268,338,653 130,090,028 104,672,141
AAL 20,225,353 14,521,039 7,415,327 5,872,021
CLASS A Dwellings CLASS B Dwellings
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Modeled Total and Insured earthquake loss for Romania
Earthquake 60% in Bucharest and 40 % Rest Romania 10 % Deductibles
Flood 60% in Bucharest and 40 % Rest Romania
5% DeductibleReturn Period TOTAL LOSS INSURED LOSS TOTAL LOSS INSURED LOSS
10 5,836,886 1,289,878 7,855,149 3,680,89150 546,282,777 312,304,753 178,831,340 143,764,259
100 1,230,871,372 823,775,426 327,258,485 242,077,409150 1,319,892,860 829,832,748 315,119,038 308,054,251250 1,932,950,547 1,396,760,040 498,739,048 387,746,936
AAL 33,680,899 20,598,156 9,624,438 6,646,297
CLASS A Dwellings CLASS B Dwellings
5% DeductibleReturn Period TOTAL LOSS INSURED LOSS TOTAL LOSS INSURED LOSS
10 19,597,215 12,319,311 7,660,167 5,901,03350 78,765,621 55,086,732 29,674,573 23,488,420
100 109,991,628 74,469,753 38,510,159 30,424,807150 127,934,662 87,161,804 44,118,659 34,856,714250 158,479,300 108,700,729 52,648,225 42,204,211
AAL 8,229,609 5,594,682 2,980,637 2,319,785
CLASS A Dwellings CLASS B Dwellings
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Earthquake estimation loss model to evaluate earthquake risks for better risk management
The software tool enables the users and decision makers to:
– Assess damages
– Prioritize and plan relief and rehabilitation requirements
– Prepare and train emergency workers
– Prepare action plans regarding essential and strategic facilities
– Import new earthquake scenarios data and visualize their impact
– Powerful Interactive Mapping Tools & Comprehensive Reports
Emergency Preparedness Planning
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Priority of rescue and rehabilitation work
Intervention Priority For Commercial Buildings
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• County name
• Locality name
• Type of construction
• Number of stories
• Total number of buildings
• Number of buildings affected
• Number of buildings collapsed
Reports For Commercial Buildings
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• County name
• Location name
• Chemical plant name
• Name of chemical
• Type of chemical
• Whether the facility is affected
• Probability of accident
Reports for Chemical Facilities
