Robust decisions in uncertain times

SAMI Strategy & Management Insights

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Scenario Planning for long tail high impact events

triggered by Global Resource Constraints

Gill RinglandNovember 2013

Robust decisions in uncertain times

WEF Global Risks 2013

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Imp

act

Likelihood (next ten years)

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Global Scenarios

Community based

Washington consensus

Virtual connectionsGeography matters

Long HandMany Hands

Second Hand Visible Hand

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Questions

• Which of the WEF risks is most likely to cause a break down of the Washington consensus?– Scarcity driving geopolitical conflict– Cyber attack– Severe income disparity – civil unrest– Complacency – not a WEF risk– Failure of global governance– Climate change– Food scarcity – implications for energy & food– Ocean governance

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Questions: for each scenario

• How could you innovate to deal with these?– Security forces expanding into resource management– Water shortages? Crops?humans? use salt water?– Self-sustaining mega-communities – disruptive

change in governance – risk of anarchy– Innovations in food supply chain could reduce

wastage and disparity, c.f. Water– Energy use as leverage point

• Education, health, reduce waste, etc

– Innovation needs a context of informed population

– THIS IS A TIME OF DISRUPTIONwww.samiconsulting.co.uk 5

Robust decisions in uncertain times

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