Www.swslim.org.uk Young People & the SW Labour Market Presentation to the SW Region strategic leads for positive activities for young people Learning South

www.swslim.org.uk

Young People & the SW Labour Market

Presentation to the SW Region strategic leads for positive activities for young people

Learning South West18th July 2009

Ben NeildAssistant Director, SLIM

www.swslim.org.uk

Population, SW, 2009

Significant variations, up to 30%, between populations in each 5 year age band

Source: ONS Population Estimates

200.0

220.0

240.0

260.0

280.0

300.0

320.0

340.0

360.0

380.0

400.0

0-4 5-9 10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

SW

Po

pu

lati

on

, 1,

000'

s

www.swslim.org.uk

Population

Source: ONS Population Estimates

SW population estimates, by age band, 2006 - 2016

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

SW

Po

pu

lati

on

Ch

an

ge

, 1

,00

0 p

eo

ple

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

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Ethnicity & Age

Board Age Structure of the resident population by ethnic group, SW, 2007

Source: ONS (Experimental Statistics)

12

18

20

44

18

18

83

73

73

53

60

60

5

9

7

4

23

22

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Black or Black British

Asian or Asian British

Mixed

White

All Groups

0-15 16-64/59 65+/60+

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Ethnicity, SW

Composition of age band, by ethnic group, SW 2007

All Groups 0-15 16-64/59* 65/60+**

White 93.76% 94.49% 98.68%

Mixed 2.77% 0.99% 0.19%

Asian or Asian British 1.83% 1.94% 0.49%

Black or Black British 0.94% 1.14% 0.40%

Chinese or Other Ethnic Group 0.71% 1.44% 0.24%

0-15 16-64/59* 65/60+**

White: Other White 1.70% 3.27% 1.50%

Source: ONS (Experimental Statistics)

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Obesity

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Drug Taking

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Smoking

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Alcohol consumption

Percentage of year 8 & year 10 pupils who consumed 7 or more units of alcohol in the last seven days, 2003-06 (Y8) and 2002-06 (Y10)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

per

cen

tag

e

Year 8 5.5 8.7 5.7 5.3 12.7 6 5.3 2.9 7.5 6.1

Year 10 19 26.8 20.2 21.6 13.6 20.4 19.9 8.4 20.3 22.5

EnglandNorth East

North West

Yorkshire & the

Humber

East M idlands

West M idlands

East England

LondonSouth East

South West

Numbers of schools taking part vary by region, and therfore may not be representative of the region as as a w hole. Source:APHO, source data: School Health Education Unit

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Qualifications – L2

Proportion of working age population qualified to at least NVQ Level 2 (or equivalent) by age, SW & UK, Jan – Dec 2007

Source: Annual Population Survey (NOMIS)

62

76 7570 69

6361

72 7167

64

58

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

16-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-SPA

% w

ork

ing

ag

e p

op

ula

tio

n South West United Kingdom

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% population qualified to NVQ Level 3 by age, Jan - Dec 2007, SW & UK


25

57 57 53 50 47

24

52 55 51 47 43

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

16-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-SPA

% w

ork

ing

ag

e p

op

ula

tio

n

South West United Kingdom

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% working age population qualified to Level 4 by age, Jan - Dec 2007, SW & UK


1

23

36 35 3429

1

23

37 3631 27

05

1015202530354045

16-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-SPA

% w

ork

ing

ag

e p

op

ula

tio

n


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Employment

Employment rate by age, September 2007 to October 2008, South West and United Kingdom

Source: APS via NOMIS

54

7485 85

76

12

43

6880 82

72

110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

16-19 20-24 25-34 35-49 50-SPA SPA

% p

op

ula

tio

n


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Employment

Employment Rates, % working age population, SW, 1993 - 2008

Source: Labour Force Survey

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

% E

mp

loym

ent

Rat

e

16-17

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-SPA

SPA

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Participation aged 16-18

Add some APS Trends – as per poverty site, but for SW

Full-time education

Jobs without education or training

Other Education & Training

WBL (part-time)

Employer Funded Training

NEET

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Young People NEET

Not in Education Employment or Training

% 16-18 year olds NEET

2008


2007


2006

Estimated number %

Estimated number %

Estimated number %

ENGLAND [5] 110,560 6.7% 109,300 6.7% 126,150 7.7%

SOUTH WEST 9,180 5.7% 8,590 5.5% 9,700 6.0%

Bournemouth 370 8.2% 380 8.4% 400 8.5%

Dorset 700 6.2% 640 5.5% 770 6.8%

Poole 260 5.4% 290 5.8% 290 6.2%

Cornwall & Isles of Scilly 1,040 6.1% 980 5.8% 1,060 6.1%

Devon 1,340 6.4% 1,200 5.9% 1,300 6.0%

Plymouth 690 7.4% 640 6.8% 710 7.4%

Torbay 260 4.8% 250 4.7% 320 6.8%

Gloucestershire 730 3.8% 780 4.0% 920 4.6%

Somerset 610 3.8% 590 4.3% 760 4.8%

Bath & North East Somerset 220 3.9% 230 3.9% 260 4.2%

Bristol 970 7.9% 860 7.3% 950 7.8%

North Somerset 230 4.2% 230 4.3% 250 4.8%

South Gloucestershire 390 4.5% 380 4.3% 390 5.0%

Swindon 550 8.0% 430 6.2% 580 8.3%

Wiltshire 790 6.3% 700 5.8% 740 6.0%

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NEETS, by Age

NEET Rates are higher for 18 year olds, and rose sharply in 2008

Employment Rate, Devon vs SW & England, 2006 – 2008, APS via NOMIS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

% P

op

ula

tio

n N

EE

T

Aged 16

Aged 17

Aged 18

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Recession - GDP

Source: ONS / BBC

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Unemployment Patterns

Source: ONS

.

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Peak in Jan 1993

4 years from peak to return to pre-recession levels

Hopefully, we are not at this stage now!

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ILO Unemployment

ILO unemployment by age, Sept - Oct 2008, SW and UK

Source: Annual Population Survey

0

5

10

15

20

25

16 to19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 49 50 to SPA SPA All ages

% I

LO

Un

emp

loym

ent

SW

UK

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Claimant Count Trend

Source: NOMIS

Claimant Count by Age Group,South West, Indexed March 20087 = 100

75

95

115

135

155

175

195

215

235

255

Mar-08

Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Aged 18-24

Aged 25-49

Aged 50+

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Claimants

Source: 2007 Mid yr pop est / NOMIS Claimant count

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Aged20-24

Aged25-29

Aged30-34

Aged35-39

Aged40-44

Aged45-49

Aged50-54

Aged55-59

% p

op

ula

tio

n

May 07

May 08

May 09

Estimate of claimants as a % of population in each age band, SW

+ 3% of age band

+ 1.5%

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Claimant Count - Age

Source: NOMIS

Additional Male Female Total

Aged 20-24 8,235 2,670 10,905

Aged 25-29 5,865 1,550 7,415

Aged 30-34 4,075 1,130 5,205

Aged 35-39 4,270 1,160 5,430

Aged 40-44 4,440 1,530 5,970

Aged 45-49 4,220 1,550 5,765

Aged 50-54 3,230 1,395 4,630

Breakdown of Claimant Growth, May 2007 to May 2008, by age & gender

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Redundancies

Source: Labour Force Survey

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2006 2007 2008

Red

un

dan

cies

, per

1,0

00 e

mp

loye

es

16-24

25-34

35-49

50+

Redundancy Rates by Age, SW and UK, 2006 - 2008

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Claimant Count - Duration

Duration of Claims by Age Group, SW, April 2009

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Aged 18-24 Aged 25-49 Aged 50+

< 13 weeks

over 13 and up to 26 weeks




over 104 weeks

Source: NOMIS

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Claimants - Men

Source: NOMIS / CESI

Jobseeker's allowance: Proportions of starters in month becoming longer-term unemployed - 18-24 men

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

New claimants staying to3 months

New claimants staying to6-9 months




Apr 2008 Oct 2008 J an 2009 Apr 2009 Dec 1990 Aug 1991 J ul 2007 Apr 2010

c20% young men unemployed > 12 months

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Claimants - Women

Source: NOMIS / CESI

Jobseeker's allowance: Proportions of starters in month becoming longer-term unemployed 18-24 women

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

New claimants staying to3 months





Apr 2008 Oct 2008 J an 2009 Apr 2009 Dec 1990 Aug 1991 J ul 2007 Apr 2010

c12% young women unemployed > 12 months

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Future Jobs – Aims

To improve the employability of young, long term unemployed (18 – 24 year olds, approaching 12 months unemployment)Deliver socially useful work that would not otherwise be done

• Jobs to last up to 6 months• Should be linked to local strategies (be valued & useful, not ‘make work’)• Developed locally, possibly ‘green’ jobs, linked to social enterprises etc

• Jobs to be advertised in JC+ and elsewhere, with competitive application• Good induction & close supervision by dedicated support workers• Training to be offered (Apprenticeships, Train to Gain), poss mentoring &

additional support• Support with progression, e.g. time off for jobsearch, interviews etc

• Oct 2009 starts, bids in by 30th June • Jan 2010 starts, bids in by end Sept


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Future Jobs - Lessons

MSC – Community Programme (1982 -1988)

• Aimed at <25’s unemployed for 6 months +, >25’s unemployed 1 year +

• Tended to focus on single under 25 yr olds

• Some activity bore little resemblance to environment & demands of normal work

• No req’t for job-search, so could act as an alternative to looking for ‘real work’

• Follow up 10 months post leaving, 35% in jobs, 56% had held jobs

Community Action (1993 – 1996)

• Voluntary prog, aimed at those unemployed > 1 year

• Combined jobsearch, voluntary work, with £10 pw on top of benefits

• 19% in jobs 3 months post leaving


Documents

Www.swslim.org.uk Young People & the SW Labour Market Presentation to the SW Region strategic leads for positive activities for young people Learning South