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Recession Briefing

NIACE SeminarJanuary 2010

Ben NeildAssistant Director, SLIM

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UK GDP

Source: ONS

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Unemployment, SW

Source: ONS / BBC

1973-761990-93

1979-83

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Unemployment Lagging Indicator

Source: LFS, ONS

GDP & Unemployment - 1990's

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1990 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41991 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41992 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41993 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41994 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41995 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41996 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41997 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41998 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41999 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

42000 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

42001 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

42002 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

42003 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4

GD

P G

row

th,

Qtr

on

Qtr

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t, %

of

16+

po

pu

lati

on

GDP

Unemployment

Estimates

19 Quarters of positive growth before unemployment returns to pre-

recession levels

We have now had 6 successive quarter s of negative growth

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Unemployment Lagging Indicator

Source: LFS, ONS

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LFS & Claimant CountUnemployment, SW

Source: LFS

% Working age population in Employment

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Employment Volume & Rate

Source: LFS

% Working age population

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Migration

Source: LFS

National Insurance Number Registrations

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Involuntary part-time working

Source: LFS

Number of people in the South West working part-time because they can't find a full-time job

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009South West 55,515 74,135 72,021 70,613 72,512

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Employment Volume & Rate

Source: LFS

All people aged 16+

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Employment Rates

Source: LFS

Annual Change in % Employment Rates by Age Group, South West, to March 2009

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ILO Unemployment

Source: LFS

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Employment Rate, SW

Source: LFS

% Working age population in Employment, Sept – Nov 2009

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Claimant Count Rates by region

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

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Redundancies

Source: JC+ administrative data

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Redundancies

Source: JC+ administrative data

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Vacancies

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

Notified to Jobcentre plus, monthly, SW

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Claimants per vacancy - SW

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

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Claim duration

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

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Claim duration

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

Proportion of claimants leaving JSA each month, by duration of unemployment, April 2008 to Present

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Employment Rates

Source: LFS

South West by gender, indexed, Aug 08 = 100

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Gender – Claimant Count

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

South West Claimant Count by gender

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Impact on Sectors

Source: JC+ administrative data

6.7%

4.5%4.1%

3.3%

1.9% 1.8% 1.8%1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

0.8%0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

0.2% 0.1%0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

Notified Redundancies as a Percentage of Employment, by Sector, South West

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Age – Claimant CountSouth West, Indexed, April 2008 = 100

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Claimant Count by Age

Source: NOMIS / JC+

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

% p

opul

ation

Aug 08

Aug 09

+ 3% of age band

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LFS Unemployment

Source: NOMIS / JC+

16 to 24 year olds, UK & English Regions

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Impact on occupations

Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, South West, August 2009

% Claimants % Employment

Managers and Senior Officials6% 16%

Professional Occupations5% 12%

Associate Professional and Technical Occupations7% 15%

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations11% 11%

Skilled Trades Occupations13% 12%

Personal Service Occupations5% 9%

Sales and Customer Service occupations15% 8%

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives11% 6%

Elementary Occupations27% 11%

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Projected change in employment by occupation,

2007 - 2017

Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, South West, August 2009