Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
© 2015 Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. Benposium 2015. © 2014 Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved.
Wyoming Pipeline Authority Public Meeting
Anne Swedberg, Manager, North American Power and Gas Content
Key Take-Aways
US production growth outpacing demand gains; LNG and Mexico exports needed to balance market
Dramatic growth in US NE affecting flow patterns across the continent
West production flattening
Gas pushing from East to West (displacements)
Rockies gas needs new demand in the West and SW
Summer Outlook
Summer 2015 versus Summer 2014
3.81
5.87
(1.00)
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Bcf
/d
Driven by price
Source: BENTEK Market Call short Term NG
4.9 Bcf/d of New Pipeline Capacity Arrives in 2015
Project Added Capacity
In-Service
Supply Area
Demand Area
REX East-to-West 1200 June OH Midcon
Transco SE Leidy 525 ~June PA SE
TGP Niagara 158 Nov PA Canada
TCO East Side 310 Nov PA NE
TETCO Uniontown 425 Nov PA/WV/OH Midcon
TGP Broad Run 590 Nov WV SE
TETCO Open 550 Nov OH SE
ANR Glenn Karn 400 Nov NE Midcon
NFG Northern Access 140 Nov NE NE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
MM
cf/d
REX E2W: IN-OH STATE LINE TO HAMILTON W
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
MM
cf/d
Transco CS 195 South
Power demand in the Northeast and Southeast expected to jump 20%
(0.4)
(0.2)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Bcf
/d
Power Demand: Summer 15 vs 14
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Bcf
/d
Gas Price
US Potential Coal-to-Gas Switching
Northeast Southeast Texas Midcon Market Midcon Producing Southwest Rockies
Coal to gas switching
Summer 2014 $4.19 / MMBtu
Bentek HH Forecast: $2.55/ MMBtu
Midcon Market to see most significant shift at price below $2.50
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
NE SE Texas MidconMarket
MidconProducing
Southwest Rockies
MM
cf/d
Coal Generation at Risk Vs. Gas Price
$4 $3.50 $3 $2.50 $2 $1.50 $1
Incremental demand growth needed to reduce total ending inventory
1.2 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6
Bcf
/d
Target Season Ending Inventory (Tcf)
2015 US Supply and Demand Balance
Y-O-Y Increase in Res/Comm/Industrial Baseload Power Growth
Y-O-Y Increase in MX Exports Incremental Demand Needed
Total Incremental Demand (Over 2014)
All long term weather forecasts pointing towards a mild summer
The Northeast effect
What has to give
Northeast Production Continues to Climb, Off-Setting Declines in Other Regions
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Bcf
/d
Production
Rest of US Northeast % of Northeast
(5)
-
5
10
15
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bcf
/d
Northeast Net flows
Marcellus and Utica Supply Growth Pushes Flows Back Across the Southwest & West
Net Change In Flows: 2014- 2020
Annual Averages
+6.0 Bcf/d
-4.1 Bcf/d
-1.3 Bcf/d
Net Northeast flows to the Midcon Market flip
(4.0)
(3.0)
(2.0)
(1.0)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Northeast West Canada Southeast Rockies Midcon Producing East Canada
Bcf
/d
Midcon Market (Season-to-date)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bcf
/d
Midcon Producing (Season-to-date)
Rockies Southeast Texas
Expansions on ANR and REX have Changed the Midcon supply
(2.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Bcf
/d
Midwest Flows from Northeast
Midwestern Texas Gas ANR-OH REX
REX Receipts from the NE at all time high
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
Bcf
/d
REX East-to-West production receipts near max capacity
Markwest Seneca Processing Plant Eureka Hunter Gathering System
Dominion East Ohio Receipts Segment Design Capacity
Segment Operating Capacity Outflows to Midcon (IN/OH to Hamilton E2W)
REX East-to-West: Targets Existing Demand in 2015
& Increasingly Targets SE Demand through 2020
Delivery Points (East-to-West)
Expected Capacity
(MMcf/d)
ISD Peak Summer/ Winter Avg.
Daily (MMcf/d)
Receipt Location
Delivery Location
Vectren Decatur 140 -- 17/23 REX - Decatur County, IN
Behind Vectren Decatur City
Gates
ANR Pipeline at Shelby
1200 3Q2015 155/300 REX - Shelby County, IN
Along ANR northbound and Southbound to
LA
Citizens Morgan 140 -- 14/16 REX – Morgan County, IN
Behind Citizens City Gates
PEPL Putnam 300 TBD 124/86 REX – Putnam County, IN
Possible reversal to deliver
southbound
Midwestern Edgar 652 -- 120/170 REX – Edgar County, IL
Delivers ~0.7-0.8 Bcf/d
northbound towards Chicago (NE at expense of SE via Tennessee
Pipeline)
Trunkline Douglas 400 Post 2020
8/3 REX - Douglas County, IL
Delivers southbound to LNG demand –
Lake Charles Ameren Moultrie 140 -- 11/14 REX - Moultrie
County, IL Behind Ameren
City Gates
NGPL Moultrie (New null point)
1750 Q32016 60/148 REX - Moultrie County, IL
Delivers to LDCs / Chicago and TxOk, South
Texas, LA along Gulf Coast Mainline
Midcon storage inventories trend towards filling to 5-yr Average
200
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Bcf
Midcon Storage
2015 Deficit to 5-Year Avg. 5-Year Average 2014
PG&E Storage Trending Towards Reaching Capacity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Bcf
2015 surplus to 5 yr 2013 2014 2015 Storage Capacity 2015* 2015**
Note: 2015* uses 5-year average injections; 2015** uses 5-year max rate (2011)
PG&E Storage
SoCal Storage on Track to Surge Beyond Total Storage Capacity
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Bcf
2015 surplus to 5 yr 2012 2014 2015 Storage Capacity 2015* 2015** 2015***
Note: 2015* uses 5-year average injections; 2015** uses 5-year max rate (2014); 2015*** uses 5-year min rate (2013)
SoCal Storage Inventory
Hydro output in PNW falls below 5-year minimum
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
GW
h/d
BPA daily hydro generation (GWh/d)
5-yr range 2014 2015
PNW Power Burn Likely to Set New High Due to Poor Hydro Outlook
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MM
cf/d
5-year range 2014 2015 Forecast
PNW Power Burn
Southwest and Texas Production Feeding the West
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Bcf
/d
MidCon/Southwest Production
Anadarko Permian San Juan
Decreases (0.1)
Increases 0.7
Decreases (0.6)
Southwest Demand Expectations
Net Change in Southwest Natural Gas Fundamentals from 2014 to 2020
(0.2) (0.2)
0.6 0.5
(0.1)
0.6
0.0
1.6
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Bcf
/d
2014-2020 Fundamentals
Source: BENTEK Cell Model
1.8 Bcf/d of Inflows Required
to Balance
Southwest Will Lead Demand Gains Across the Western US
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Bcf
/d
California/Southwest Demand
Power ResComm Industrial
Total Demand 2020: 9.2 Bcf/d
+ 0.9 Bcf/d above 2015
Power 2020: 4.0 Bcf/d
+ 0.5 Bcf/d above 20153 Source: BENTEK Cell Model
Production Outlook for the West
West Production continues downward trend since 2009, ROX experiences slight increase
9.8 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.5 8.4 8.6
4.8 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Bcf
/d
Rockies leading production declines
Rockies CA/Southwest
14.6
12.4
DJ Production Increase Offset by Declines in Other Rockies Plays
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Bcf
/d
Dry Plays Decline, Wet Plays Offset with Growth
Denver-Julesburg Green River-Overthrust Piceance
Powder River Uinta Other
Forecast
Other down by 0.2 Bcf/d
Uinta down 0.1 Bcf/d
PRB down by 0.2 Bcf/d
DJ up 0.2 Bcf/d
Piceance down by 0.2 Bcf/d
GRO down 0.3 Bcf/d
Longer term outlook
Incremental Change 2014 v. 2020
20.4 22.3
(1.8) (0.1)
6.0
(0.5)
2.5 2.4
10.5
0.2
21.1
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0To
tal S
up
ply
Pro
du
ctio
n
Imp
ort
s fr
om
Can
ada
LNG
Dem
and
fro
m P
ow
er
Re
sCo
mm
De
man
d
Ind
ust
rial
De
man
d
Exp
ort
s to
Mex
ico
LNG
Exp
ort
s
Pip
e L
oss
Tota
l De
man
d
Bcf
/d
2014-2020 Fundamentals
Source: BENTEK Cell Model
12.9 Bcf/d Exports
Required
Northeast Continues to Drive Growth
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.01
/1/2
00
9
8/1
/20
09
3/1
/20
10
10
/1/2
01
0
5/1
/20
11
12
/1/2
01
1
7/1
/20
12
2/1
/20
13
9/1
/20
13
4/1
/20
14
11
/1/2
01
4
6/1
/20
15
1/1
/20
16
8/1
/20
16
3/1
/20
17
10
/1/2
01
7
5/1
/20
18
12
/1/2
01
8
7/1
/20
19
2/1
/20
20
9/1
/20
20
Bcf
/d
Texas+Southeast+Midcon Southwest+Rockies Northeast+Midwest
Source: Bentek CellCAST
The Supply & Demand Balance
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Bcf
/d
Production
Demand
Net imports
Source: Bentek CellCAST
Key Takeaways
US production growth outpacing demand gains; LNG and Mexico exports needed to balance market
Dramatic growth in US NE affecting flow patterns across the continent
West production flattening
Gas pushing from East to West (displacements)
Rockies gas needs new demand in the West and SW
© 2013 Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved.
Q&A Anne Swedberg, Manager, North American Gas and Power Content
![[XLS] · Web viewCONSOLIDADO TOTAL ESCOPETA REVOLVER CARABINAS PISTOLA MARCA 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 MODELO 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 TIPOARMA 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 NRO TIPO_ARMA MARCA MODELO](https://img.pdfslide.net/doc/110x75/5b0bc0427f8b9a685a8b515e/xls-viewconsolidado-total-escopeta-revolver-carabinas-pistola-marca-000-000.jpg)
![[PPT] · Web view3.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 9.00 5.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 4.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Title Author nakayama Last modified by nakayama Created Date 3/13/2000 6:13:41](https://img.pdfslide.net/doc/110x75/5b00ff8f7f8b9a54578d85ad/ppt-view300-100-200-200-100-100-900-500-200-200-200-200-100-400.jpg)
