China’s Agricultural Riskto Climate Change

• Yinlong XU （许 吟隆）• Climate Change Lab• Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,• Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)• Beijing, P. R. China• Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 • E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn• 08 November, 2011

Content

Background

Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture

Risk Assessment

Next-step Work-plan

Overall features of climate change in China

Obvious warming with greater climate variability

Unbalanced regional precipitation with enhanced drought and flooding

More occurrence of extreme weather/climate events with huge economic loss

The Challenges of Agriculture to Climate Change in China

Threatening food security;Enhancing the agro-meteorological disasters;Getting hard to control the agricultural diseases, pestsand weeds;Degrading the grassland and instablizing the animalhusbandry;Exacerbating the poverty in rural and ecologicallyvulnerable regions.

1. More Occurrence of Agro-meteorological Disasters

Super Typhoon Saomai and Bilis Landed in 2006

Frozen snow in Southern China in 2008. Affected Crop areas are nearly 15 Million Hectares and the direct economic losses are more than 159 Billion Yuan.

6

Drought in North China Plain

2.Impacts on cropping systemThe cultivated area of single cropping system might drop by

23%,the north boundary of double cropping system might movenorthward to the middle part of the region of the present singlecropping system, and the proportion of triple cropping systemmight change from the present 13.5% to 36%.

The border of farming-pastoral ecotonemoved southward and extendedeastward between 1971-2000 and 1961-1990.

Green:↑ Red: ↓ Yellow: --Liu & Lin

Increasing

No change

Decreasing

3. Impacts on the yield of major crops

4. Impacts on the crop pests and diseases

The climate warming would change the distribution ofagricultural diseases and pests. This would increase the outbreakof pest and disease . the amount of pesticide and herbicideapplication would be increased due to the climate warming.

Rice Planthopper Wheat Aphid

Content

Background

Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture

Risk Assessment

Next-step Work-plan

China’s INC on CC (2004)

Studies on National Strategyof CC Adaptation (2011)

National Assessment Reporton CC (2007)

Adapt to what?

Adaptation

Major tasks of Chinese agriculture to adapt to climate change

Enhancing the construction of agricultural infrastructures;Accelerating agricultural industrialization and modernization;Strengthening water conservancy facility and developing water-saving agriculture;Adjusting cropping systems and crop varieties layout;Developing adaptation techniques for animal husbandry;Establishing the early-warning systems for agricultural disasters and improving agricultural disasters insurance;Completing the adaptation technology check-list.

Action planBased on the challenges to climate change and major tasks toadapt to climate change, we proposed the action plan towards theyear 2020, including:1. basic farmland construction2. water saving project3. agricultural infrastructure construction4. constructing the gene pool and seed bank5. adjusting the cropping system6. monitoring, predicting and controlling the agro-meteorological disasters7. developing the adaptation technique checklist8. building the demonstration zone for adaptation9. preventing the grassland degradation10. forage resourcing and planning

Shortcomings of the present adaptation strategy research

•GHGs

emissionsClimatechange

Impactsassessments

Vulnerabilityanalysis

Riskanalysis

Adaptationstrategy

√ ×

Content

Background

Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture

Risk Assessment

Next-step Work-plan

Risk= Hazard × Vulnerability

Risk assessment

Hazard

Exposure

Extreme Climate Events

VulnerabilitySensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Grids: 145*112

Grids: 219*183

PRECIS Old Domain

PRECIS New Domain

PRECIS Jobs List for the Old Domain

Observation Period Status Temporal Resolution

ERA-15 1979-1993 ReadyDaily

ERA-40 1957-2001 Ready

GCMs Period Status TemporalResolution

HadAM3P BS(1961-1990), 3个 Ready

DailyHadAM3P A2 (2071-2100), 3个 ReadyHadAM3P B2 (2071-2100) Ready

HadCM3Q0 A1B(1961-2100) Ready

PRECIS Jobs List for the New Domain

GCMs Period Status Temporal Resolution Notes

ECHAM5 A1B(1961-2050) Ready Daily 2051-2011 outputs

would be ready later;

Experiments:Q0:control experiment includes hourly and daily outputs;

In daily level:Q1:low sensitivity;Q7:middle sensitivity;Q10:high sensitivity;Q13:high sensitivity.

HadCM3Q(CORDEX-EAsia)

A1B(1961-2050)

Q0 Ready Hourly and Daily

Q10 Ready

Daily

Q13 Ready

Q7 Running

Q1 Running

CMIP5RCP

(1961-2050)

4.5 Not ready

8.5 Not ready

BS 2020s

2050s 2080s

PRECIS Outputs for the Old Domain -A1B Temp.

BS 2020s

2050s 2080s

PRECIS Outputs for the Old Domain -A1B Pre.

PRECIS Outputs for the New Domain -A1B2020s Temperature VS Baseline

2020s Precipitation VS Baseline

BS Temperature

BS Precipitation

First-classindices

Second-classindices Third-class indices

Exposure

Crop planting areas Different crop planting areas

Grain yield Total/growth rate of Yield

Disasters-causing factors

Drought

Floods

High temperature

Low temperature

Sensitivity

Climatologicallynormal

Precipitation

Temperature

Accumulated temperature

Climate variability

Temperature variability

Precipitation variability

Yield Yield variation

Disaster level Disaster area

Adaptivecapacity

GDP GDP per capita

Income level Income per capita

Total and structureof population

Total and growth rate of population

The rate of being educated population

The proportion of poverty

Land use The proportion of agricultural land

Agricultural GDP The proportion of agricultural GDP

Agriculturalinvestment

The application rate of chemical fertilizer

The level of agricultural mechanization

The application rate of Pesticides

Total and rate of agricultural electricity

Irrigable areaWater conservancy facilities level

Farmland capital construction level

The proportion ofthree majorindustries

The proportion in planting

Extension ofagricultural

science

The rate of promotion of achievement of science and technology in agriculture

Management ability Response capability of disaster assistance

First-class indices

Second-class indices Third-class indices

Vulnerability Indices

Questionnaire of Vulnerability indicators

Indices Weights （Based on AHP）Indices Weight

年均降水量（Precipitation） 0.1418

年均温度（Temperature） 0.0775

积温（Accumulated temperature） 0.0493

气温变率（Temperature variability） 0.0220

降水变率（Precipitation variability） 0.0302

产量变化率（Precipitation variability） 0.0126

人均GDP（GDP per capita） 0.1068

农民人均纯收入（Income per capita） 0.0971

贫困人口比例（The proportion of poverty） 0.0330

水土流失面积或治理率（Soil erosion area） 0.0257

人均粮食产量占有量（Per capita occupancy of grain） 0.0251

年均农业总投入（Annual overall input to agriculture） 0.0195

可灌溉面积比例（The proportion of irrigated area） 0.0158

种植业比例（The proportion of planting） 0.0103

农作物总面积（Crop planting areas） 0.1413

粮食总产/增长率（Total growth rate of yield） 0.1024

干旱成灾/受灾面积（Drought areas） 0.0552

高温成灾/受灾面积（High temperature Disaster areas） 0.0188

低温成灾/受灾面积（Low temperature Disaster areas） 0.0156

Content

Background

Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture

Risk Assessment

Next-step Work-plan

Next-step work

Convert the extracted information of extremeclimate evens from climate scenarios to agro-meteorological hazards;

Complete the vulnerability indices;

Collect the relevant data of vulnerability indices;

ACCC Project :RegCM3 & PRECIS Job-list

• ERA-Interim: 1989-2008• HadCM3• SRES A1B QUMP0: 1951-2100• SRES A1B QUMP1\7\10\13: 1951-2100• ECHAM5• SRES A1B QUMP0: 1951-2100• CMIP5 Models

RCP 8.5 ⁄ 4.5: 1951-2100